Campi Flegrei

[bjdeming]

Update from Civil Protection (Italian) ten hours ago, via GT:

Seismic swarm at Campi Flegrei: update on civil protection activities

After the 4.4 magnitude earthquake, the civil protection system is working to assist the population of the area and carry out checks on the buildings


Civil Protection in Pozzuoli

Assistance to the population. In Pozzuoli, from the first hours after the earthquake, five waiting areas were set up to guarantee initial assistance to the population, connected, by shuttles, to a large reception area created at the Palazzetto dello Sport-Palatrincone of Monterusciello, which acts as refreshment point and overnight stay. The municipalities of Bacoli and Naples are also equipped to respond to any need for assistance to the population. There are over 200 civil protection volunteers from the Campania Region engaged in these activities and in providing support to the operational structures activated in the area.

Building checks. Inspections on public and private buildings by teams of technicians from the Fire Brigade, the Campania Region and the Municipalities of Bacoli and Pozzuoli continue in the affected areas, also on the basis of requests received from citizens. The coordination of activities is carried out at the municipal operations centers where staff from the Civil Protection Department and the Campania Region are present. In total, over 400 inspections have been conducted on private homes up to yesterday evening: at the moment, in the Municipality of Pozzuoli, 38 properties have been declared uninhabitable following the earthquake, while in Bacoli and Naples the checks carried out have not given negative results.

Monitoring activities. The monitoring activity of the state of the volcano by the INGV Vesuvian Observatory continues and intensifies, not only with regard to seismicity and ground deformations, but also with respect to the hydrothermal activity of the area and gas emissions from the soil.

Major Risks Commission. Yesterday the Major Risks Commission - Volcanic Risk Sector met, which recommended maintaining high attention on volcano monitoring activities and on risk prevention and mitigation measures. Although no elements are found that suggest a migration of the magma towards more superficial levels, the analysis of the multiparametric data highlights the continuation of the intensification of the bradyseismic phenomenon. The worsening of the ongoing crisis therefore requires frequent checks of the state of the volcano. The commission also highlights that seismic activity may continue or increase in the coming weeks. At present the yellow alert level remains.

There are apparently some fumaroles in that western part of the submerged caldera. Data from the existing MEDUSA stations, BTW, confirm that the bay's seafloor rises, too, with the bradyseism.

 

[bjdeming]

More info from INGV (Italian) on that hydrothermal area -- it isn't new but they want to monitor it more closely.

It's closer to the north shore than the western ones:

Per GT:

A new infrastructure with highly sensitive sensors has been installed for monitoring volcanic degassing in the sea

As is known, the Campi Flegrei caldera also extends into the marine area in the Gulf of Pozzuoli where the "Medusa" multi-parametric geophysical monitoring network is already present.

In order to strengthen the multiparametric geochemical research and monitoring infrastructure of the Vesuvian Observatory of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV-OV) right in the submerged sector of the Phlegraean caldera, a new multiparametric observatory has recently been installed for the study of the submarine hydrothermal degassing process.

This installation, also created thanks to the contribution of the Department of Civil Protection, is part of the numerous activities for the implementation and strengthening of the networks and general investigations on this sector of the caldera.

The installation was made possible thanks to the INGV underwater group, coordinated by the Fluid Geochemistry Functional Unit of the INGV-Vesuvian Observatory, in coordination with the Campi Flegrei Archaeological Park and the other authorities responsible for protecting the territory.

The affected area was identified in a particular sector of the Gulf of Pozzuoli known as "Secca delle Fumose", already the subject of studies and monitoring and where the installation of other marine scientific instruments is planned.

The new marine observatory allows continuous monitoring of the temperature of hydrothermal emissions at the bottom, the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) of volcanic origin dissolved in sea water and the sea current: all useful parameters for estimating the energy associated with the submarine degassing process and monitoring of any variations.

This new instrumentation enhances the Multiparametric Network infrastructure already existing in the Campi Flegrei caldera in the submerged sector of the caldera, which presents objective logistical difficulties.

 

[bjdeming]

There's been another swarm, per the Commune of Pozzuoli on Facebook, but shorter and with a max of "only" about M2.7.

Some people, per the Commune feed, are still displaced but 80% of the building checks for damage from the more intense swarm earlier this week have been completed

 

[bjdeming]

Reassuring news from INGV in this week's bulletin.

Per GT:

SUMMARY STATUS OF ACTIVITY
In light of the monitoring data, it is highlighted:

1) SEISMOLOGY: In the week from 20 to 26 May 2024, in the Campi Flegrei area, there were 274 earthquakes with magnitude Md≥0.0 (Mdmax=4.4±0.3) were localized.

2) DEFORMATIONS: In the last week there have been no significant changes in the parameters of ground deformations.

3) GEOCHEMISTRY: There are no significant variations in the geochemical parameters monitored in the reference period with respect to the trends of increase in flows and heating of the system already known hydrothermal. The temperature sensor installed in a fumarole emission 5 meters from the Pisciarelli's main fumarole showed an average value of ~95°C.

2. EXPECTED SCENARIOS

Based on the current picture of volcanic activity outlined above, no elements are highlighted such as to suggest significant short-term developments.

N.B. Any variations in the monitored parameters, which may lead to a different evolution of the phenomena described above will be the subject of further investigation promptly communicated.

 

[bjdeming]

A short swarm this time, but reportedly (autotranslated) with three strong tremors in the Solfatara area.

 

[bjdeming]

Civil Protection just put out a video on the volcano and its two main hazards: bradyseism (slow uplift or subsidence) and an eruption.

It's aimed at residents, but some of the advice, like what to do when ash is falling, apply everywhere. I ran it through a machine translator, using Lingo Tube, and think it's good, effective public outreach.



An example of the overall proactive, positive approach: at around the 10-minute mark they simulate a Monte Nuovo 1538 style eruption on land, noting that it could occur anywhere in the caldera; it's scary but also immediately followed by reassuring visuals of calm, focused experts monitoring things and a verbal message that "we are prepared."

The "I don't take risks" message is highlighted, too -- again, very proactive.

BTW, everything in the videography is in the caldera. Everything, except double-humped Vesuvius in the background in that one shot, and at another angle, Ischia sitting just off the coast to the southwest (the Naples area's third known active volcanic threat.).

Some of the graphics include nearby parts of Naples, just outside the CF caldera.

Monte Nuovo is the volcano-shaped hill in there, shown just near the start just before they start to explain why Campi Flegrei doesn't have that shape. AFAIK, Monte Nuovo won't erupt again (any more than another monogenetic volcano -- Paricutin, in Mexico -- will repeat) but there's plenty of room elsewhere. Sigh.

This article (autotranslated) has more information.

They can't get into all the possibilities here, like a steam explosion (round Lake Averno formed that way) or surtseyan activity out in the bay if a submarine vent opens up, but the most active sites -- Rione Terra and the Solfatara -- are on land, so the approach makes sense.

 

[bjdeming]

No major changes. There was a fine sciame last week -- fine in the English language sense because the swarm was brief, not strong, and not in an area where people were disturbed.

Dr. Di Vito gave an interview (autotranslated) and repeated his earlier statements that swarms will continue at times and some will be strong, but a 5-pointer is about the maximum intensity expected.

He also listed the three areas of concern that they're watching closely:

...Three macroscopic situations are underway which are represented by crustal deformation, which occurs in particular in the Rione Terra area , at the maximum rate of 2 centimeters per month; by the seismicity, which is discontinuous and which had its maximum peak on May 20th with the 4.4 shock; and from the emission of gas from the subsoil, which occurs mainly in the Solfatara-Pisciarelli area and in the Gulf of Pozzuoli where we are measuring large emissions"....

In the meantime, I am lobbying for a new international rule for everyone who does a doom-and-gloom supervolcano post/article on Campi Flegrei, requiring them to use this image of the caldera above their headline:

FLEGRELLA ARRIVES, THE GEOLOGICAL HISTORY OF THE CAMPI FLEGREI IN AN ILLUSTRATED BOOK FOR CHILDREN​

Of Flegrean Chronicle

• Published 8 July 2024

POZZUOLI – Today, at 6pm, the book Flegrella – The caldera which tells the geological history of the Campi Flegrei by Franco Foresta Martin, Sandro De Vita and Anna Russolillo...

-- Source (autotranslated)

 

[bjdeming]

In today's update, INGV notes that the rate of uplift might have slowed since the beginning of July but they are still reviewing the data. Also, no major changes are expected in the short term, based on current readings.

 

[bjdeming]

Looks like it's time to mention one of the lesser known Naples-area volcanoes: Procida. I didn't realize until now that some experts connect it and the other lesser known threat (Ischia) with Campi Flegrei.

Anyway, a new swarm began today at CF and there was a landslide at Procida. Emergency management people immediately convened, per this source (Italian).

According to Google Translate:

MONTE DI PROCIDA – A seismic swarm has been underway in the Campi Flegrei area since 11.57 am. The event of greatest magnitude, 2.6, was located at 11.59 am, in the Astroni-Pisciarelli area near the Pozzuoli toll booth of the ring road, at a depth of approximately 3 km. The Municipal Operations Center was immediately summoned and expeditious checks were started with technical and Municipal Police personnel. In the same hours, a landslide event was also recorded along the Monte di Procida ridge overlooking the Miliscola coast. This circumstance, in fear of correlations between the two episodes, led to the Prefecture of Naples convening (remotely) an ad horas meeting of the Rescue Coordination Center for 3pm today, in which the Municipality of Monte di Procida, the Municipality of Bacoli, the Port Authority, the Guardia di Finanza, the COPS of the State Police, the Operations Center of the Carabinieri, the Fire Brigade, and, obviously, the Campania Region with the Department of Civil Protection, as well as the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology.

THE SUMMIT – During the meeting, the director of the Vesuvian Observatory, Mauro Di Vito, expressly believed he could exclude correlations between the landslide event recorded in Miliscola and the seismic swarm in progress, believing rather that it was a small detachment of sandy materials, which eroded and caused a dusty mass fed by the wind, as frequently happens in the area (already closed off and subject to a high risk of landslides), as also ascertained by the technicians of the municipal technical office, who immediately intervened on site together with the Local Police following the activation of the COC...

 

[bjdeming]

INGV's weekly report shows no significant changes are expected any time soon.

They also did a blog post (Italian; see Google Translate version in English below the following image) linked to this study, which did a high-resolution "CT" of Campi Flegrei -- Figure 3 of Tramelli et al. CC BY-SA 4.0:

It's technical but Figure 3 shows something we're all curious about: what Campi Flegrei's plumbing might look like in cross-section.

Here is the GT translation of INGV's blog post text.

The study of earthquakes can give us valuable information on the characteristics of the rocks crossed by seismic waves. In particular, a recent study, based on the spatial distribution of the magnitudes of seismic events, has provided interesting information on the temperatures and stress to which the rocks that make up the subsoil of the Campi Flegrei are subjected. Let's try to understand how.

The Gutenberg-Richter law

We know that there is an empirical relationship that links the number of earthquakes to their magnitude. This relationship was initially proposed by two researchers who analyzed the seismic catalog of California in 1944. Beno Gutenberg and Charles F. Richter. The two scientists, from whom the law takes its name, highlighted how the magnitudes of the earthquakes in the catalog followed an exponential distribution, demonstrating that there is an exponential relationship between the number of earthquakes of magnitude 5, those of magnitude 4, those of magnitude 3, etc. This relationship is characteristic for every seismogenic area, as has been highlighted in countless scientific works published after 1944.

In the mathematical expression of the law there is a constant, b, whose value (the so-called b-value) characterizes the proportion between the number of earthquakes of a given magnitude and that of earthquakes of higher magnitude. Analyzing the catalog of earthquakes recorded throughout the world it has been highlighted that the global b-value is very close to 1. This means that for every earthquake of magnitude 5 in a seismic catalog there are about 10 earthquakes of magnitude 4, about 100 of magnitude 3, about 1000 of magnitude 2 and so on.

Why do we study the variations in space and time of the b-value?

Because it has been seen that the variations of the b-value in space depend on the state of stress, stresses that induce deformations, to which the earth's crust is subjected; by fracturing or its temperature. Its variations over time are also analyzed because it seems that they can help to understand the progress of a seismic sequence.

The distribution of the b-value in the seismicity of the Campi Flegrei.

The increase in seismicity recorded in recent years at Campi Flegrei has pushed us to analyze the spatial distribution of the b-value. The study is partly part of the research activities of the LOVE-CF project, funded by INGV with the aim of improving the ability to define the state of the caldera and predict its future behavior. We used 7670 earthquakes recorded between 2005 and October 2023 by the seismometers of the Vesuvian Observatory (Naples Section of the INGV) and we evaluated how the b-value describing the distribution of their magnitudes in the different areas of the Phlegraean caldera varies (figure 1 ).

We have highlighted that below the areas of Solfatara and Pisciarelli the b-value has values greater than 1. This indicates that in these areas a greater number of low magnitude earthquakes are recorded in relation to those of higher magnitude than what happens usually in tectonic areas. In the area of the Air Force Academy and in the areas surrounding the area of maximum ground uplift, where deeper earthquakes are recorded, the ratio between low and higher magnitude earthquakes is more similar to that recorded in the global catalogue, with a slight prevalence of the latter (figure 2).

The distribution of the b-value is compatible with the presence of an extensive, very superficial hydrothermal area beneath the localities of Solfatara and Pisciarelli. Here, due to the high presence of fluids, the stress due to the lifting of the crust cannot accumulate but is released through small earthquakes.

In the deeper areas (3-4 km), at the edges of the most raised area and characterized by blue and purple colors in figure 2, the presence of more extensive faults means that stress tends to accumulate and be released through earthquakes of larger magnitude.

 

[bjdeming]

From the blog just now, with links:

July 26, 2024, 7:11 a.m., Pacific: Campi Flegrei has had some seismic swarms since the last update, but I’m pinning the post again because today’s swarm reportedly (Italian) started off rather unusually with a roar.


Via Google Translate:

Strong shock in Pozzuoli, all the Campi Flegrei tremble
by Cronaca Flegrea
Published July 26, 2024
POZZUOLI – A strong tremor, with its epicenter in the Gulf of Pozzuoli, was felt at 1:46 pm today throughout the Phlegraean area. The phenomenon was detected by the sensors of the Vesuvius Observatory which recorded a magnitude of 4.0 ± 0.3 located in the sea at a depth of 4 km. The event was accompanied by a roar felt by citizens living along the coastal area. Windows and floors shook not only in Pozzuoli but also in the neighboring municipalities of Bacoli, Quarto, Monte di Procida and in the neighboring areas of Fuorigrotta, Bagnoli and Pianura. The earthquake was also felt in the business center of Naples. At the moment there are no particular critical issues reported. The mayor of Pozzuoli has activated the COC. People on the streets have been reported in various points of the city.

Per INGV on Facebook an hour ago (Facebook translation)

– COMUNICATO
AGGIORNAMENTO SCIAME n.1
26/07/2024 ore 14.40
Dalle ore 11:44 (UTC) del 26/07/2024 è in
corso uno sciame sismico nell’area Campi
Flegrei.
…
INGVvulcani
… UPDATE
RELEASED #. 1 26/07/2018 2:40 pm
Since 11:44 (UTC) on 26/07/2019 there is an earthquake swarm in the Campi Flegrei area.
At the time of issuance of this
Communicato 5 earthquakes with
magnitude Md ’ 0.0 and a maximum
magnitude Md = 4.0 ario 0.3.
Within 3/6 hours a further update will follow depending on the evolution of the phenomenon…

Some official links are above (again), and while I don’t know much about this source, Cronaca Flegrea has shown thorough, up-to-the-minute coverage of Campi Flegrei crises this year, plus lots of other news from around Rione Terra where they are right at the center of the uplift.


The only drawback is that I can’t get Google Translate to work with the URL — there’s some problem with the EU cookie consent popup at all Italian sites.

 

[bjdeming]

From the blog just now, with links

July 26, 2024, 7:11 a.m., Pacific: Campi Flegrei has had some seismic swarms since the last update, but I’m pinning the post again because today’s swarm reportedly (Italian) started off rather unusually with a roar.


Via Google Translate:

Strong shock in Pozzuoli, all the Campi Flegrei tremble
by Cronaca Flegrea
Published July 26, 2024
POZZUOLI – A strong tremor, with its epicenter in the Gulf of Pozzuoli, was felt at 1:46 pm today throughout the Phlegraean area. The phenomenon was detected by the sensors of the Vesuvius Observatory which recorded a magnitude of 4.0 ± 0.3 located in the sea at a depth of 4 km. The event was accompanied by a roar felt by citizens living along the coastal area. Windows and floors shook not only in Pozzuoli but also in the neighboring municipalities of Bacoli, Quarto, Monte di Procida and in the neighboring areas of Fuorigrotta, Bagnoli and Pianura. The earthquake was also felt in the business center of Naples. At the moment there are no particular critical issues reported. The mayor of Pozzuoli has activated the COC. People on the streets have been reported in various points of the city.

Per INGV on Facebook an hour ago (Facebook translation)

– COMUNICATO
AGGIORNAMENTO SCIAME n.1
26/07/2024 ore 14.40
Dalle ore 11:44 (UTC) del 26/07/2024 è in
corso uno sciame sismico nell’area Campi
Flegrei.
…
INGVvulcani
… UPDATE
RELEASED #. 1 26/07/2018 2:40 pm
Since 11:44 (UTC) on 26/07/2019 there is an earthquake swarm in the Campi Flegrei area.
At the time of issuance of this
Communicato 5 earthquakes with
magnitude Md ’ 0.0 and a maximum
magnitude Md = 4.0 ario 0.3.
Within 3/6 hours a further update will follow depending on the evolution of the phenomenon…

Some official links are above (again), and while I don’t know much about this source, Cronaca Flegrea has shown thorough, up-to-the-minute coverage of Campi Flegrei crises this year, plus lots of other news from around Rione Terra where they are right at the center of the uplift.


The only drawback is that I can’t get Google Translate to work with the URL — there’s some problem with the EU cookie consent popup at all Italian sites.

 

[bjdeming]

Some of those links again, including alert status (unchanged):

• INGV bulletins (Italian).
• INGV Campi Flegrei page (Italian)
• Alert level: Yellow.
• INGV’s recent activity page (Italian).
• Campi Flegrei emergency plan.

 

[bjdeming]

Google translation: "...SWARM UPDATE COMMUNICATION n.2 07/26/2024Since (UTC) 11:44 on 07/26/2024 a seismic swarm has been underway in the Campi Flegrei area: 6 earthquakes with maximum Md = 4.0 ± 0.3.GOSSIP database https://buff.ly/4cW7pK5 ..."




Screenshot of the quake page:

 

[bjdeming]

Aaaand a fine sciame it was:



It's worth keeping an eye on, I think. That 4-pointer out in Pozzuoli Bay was felt over a surprisingly broad area and it caused a landslide near Bacoli (teeny, and per Cronaca Flegrea, nearby swimmers were scared but not hurt).
Wonder if they'll say anything about it in the next bulletin.

 

[bjdeming]

Campi Flegrei experienced a "swell." I've seen the term used for a different geological process, but here is how INGV (Facebook translation) defines it AND the swarm collection:

#CAMPIFLEGREI - SEISMIC ACTIVITY ANNOUNCEMENT The INGV Observatorio Vesuviano informs that, as of 08/17/2018, the Campi Flegrei area is affected by seismic activity characterized by seismic swells. A first swarm, between 14.52 on 08/17 and 12.36 on 08/18, consisted of 109 earthquakes with max magnitude Md = 2.8 18 0.3. As of 14:05 on 18/08/2019 a new swarm formed in preliminary path of 13 earthquakes (14.54 hours) with magnitude Md Md 0.0 and a maximum magnitude Md = 1.2 D 0.3. The enclosed image refers to the events recorded during the first outbreak.

Please remember that to define an seismic swarm at Campi Flegrei refer to the communication procedures at the link https: //buff.ly/4dPSReP. Further info on the website #INGV #VesuvianObservatory. Data bank GOSSIP https://buff.ly/4cvczeT Translated from Italian.

They announced the swell end on X about nine hours ago. No damage has been reported yet from these fairly small events and AFAIK the area hasn't actually been inflating. The repeating activity is interesting.

The IMO calls such series "pulsing," but terms like "paroxysm," first used in Italy -- perhaps the home of volcanology even if you don't count Pliny the Younger -- for Etna, tend to gain wide acceptance internationally. I don't know about "swell," though; its traditional meaning is well established.

 

[bjdeming]

Another in-depth look at the volcano (Italian) shows that some magma is rising but no eruption appears imminent.

Browser translation of this INGV press release (check out Figure 2 --

-- which didn't carry over although its caption did, see below); of note, "bradyseism" means "slow earthquake" -- the up-and-down movement of the caldera surface -- not "slow subsidence":

CAMPI FLEGREI | A new analysis of the nature of the slow subsidence of the caldera
PUBLISHED: SEPTEMBER 17, 2024
...The new scientific achievement reached through the analysis of the deformations of the soil, the modeling of volcanic sources and the simulations petrologiche on the activity of the volcano from 2007 to 2023

To understand whether the seismic activity, the deformation of the soil and the emission of gas, phenomena which, since 2007, are gradually increased to bradyseism in the course in the volcano, Campi Flegrei, involving the movement or accumulation of magma at depth, and, therefore, to trace the evolution in time.
These objectives were achieved by an international team of researchers led bythe National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) in collaboration with theUniversità degli Studi Roma Tre and l’Université de Genève, in the framework of the project “LOVE " -CF” , funded by the INGV for the multidisciplinary investigation of the Phlegraean Fields.
The results of the study are reported in the article “Tracking the 2007-2023 magma-driven unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)”, recently published in the journal Nature Communications of Earth and Environment, which addresses these aspects are important for defining the dynamics and the current state of a volcano in an area of high population density.
According to experts, the volcano has shown signs of a progressive accumulation of magma at depth is relatively superficial.
For years, scientists closely monitor the activities of the Phlegrean Fields, the vast volcanic caldera west of Naples, the volcano known in recent decades for the crisis bradisismiche.
Using advanced techniques, such as geodesy, the numerical simulations and the petrology, the researchers were able to map the movement of magma in the depths of the caldera in the span of 16 years, from 2007 to 2023-that is, from the beginning of the new phase bradisismica of the volcano that still lasts today.
The analysis shows that the rise of magma at depth of less than 8 km away, is the main engine of the activities in the course, characterized by a slow and steady uplift of the ground, which has reached about 1.3 metres to the Rione Terra of Pozzuoli from 2006 to today.
Considering different scenarios, researchers have deduced that the source of deformation is, over the years, progressively more superficial, from about 6 km until you get to about 4 km depth. This source is the result of the ascent of magma and gas magmatic from the accumulation zone main, 8 km depth, at lower depths.
In addition, the ascent of magma and gas magmatic contributed to the intensification of seismic activity and the increase of the phenomenon of emission of gas, in particular in the area of the Solfatara, which represents the iconographic one of the main events of the volcanic caldera.
Experts warn that, although at the moment there are no signs of imminent eruption, however, the possible, the continuous accumulation of magma and the increase of the pressure in the subsoil are a risk that should continue to be monitored and managed with great care.
"It is essential to constantly monitor the behavior of this volcano, especially considering that it is located in one of the most densely populated areas in Europe", says Elisa Trasatti, a researcher at the National Observatory for Earthquakes of the INGV and coordinator of the research group. “In the last few decades, the network of measurement of the deformations of the soil from the GNSS has reached a very high level of technological development for the number of stations throughout the volcanic area, and for the reliability of the processing of the data, which is acquired continuously and processed on a daily basis. Also,” continues the researcher, “the satellite data has allowed a reconstruction with a large coverage area. Thanks to the high quality of the data, it was possible to develop advanced models to find the cause of the deformations monitored. This has allowed us to make a further step in the determination of the origin of the activity of Campi Flegrei”.
Mauro Antonio Di Vito, Director of the Vesuvius Observatory of the INGV and co-author of the study, says “Any statement about the activity of the Phlegraean Fields must be considered with caution. Although it is not possible to define with certainty the presence of magma at about 4 km depth, the study establishes for the first time that the magma, rising from 8 km, is the main engine of the activities in the course of the Phlegraean Fields. Although at the moment there are no signs of impending eruption, the continuous accumulation of magma and the increase of the pressure in the subsoil are a risk that should not be ignored”.
Valerio Acocella, a professor at the University of Roma Tre, Associated research at the INGV and co-author of the study, explains: "This study provides important information in order to better understand and constrain the current state of the magmatic system of the Campi Flegrei". It also stresses the importance of international cooperation: "The study also shows how important it is to integrate different disciplines and use the skills of different institutions to address complex problems such as the one of the Phlegraean Fields. Only through a multidisciplinary approach can we hope to understand fully the dynamics of the volcanoes".
Scientists emphasize that the volcano is constantly monitored by a dense network multiparametric that allows you to detect even the smallest changes in the caldera.
"The most recent data, from 2023 to today, show similarities with those observed in the previous 16 years, with a slight intensification of the events. Then, at the moment there are reasons to believe that the magmatic activity is still continuing as defined in the study. We are constantly in contact with the Civil Protection to ensure that every little development to be followed with the utmost attention," he concludes Mauro A. Di Vito.

Link to the article

Useful links:
INGV
INGV-ONT
INGV-OV
Università degli Studi RomaTre
Université de Genève
Project LOVE-CF INGV (Linking surface Orbservables to sub-Volcanic plumbing-system: a multidisciplinary approach for Andruption forecasting at Clarge Flegrei caldera, Italy)
Fig. 1: Monitoring of ground deformation at Campi Flegrei from 2007 to 2023. (A) Deformation of the horizontal progressive obtained with the geodetic GNSS managed by INGV - Osservatorio Vesuviano. B) vertical deflections obtained from the processing of the data, Envisat satellite of the European Space Agency (ESA) and the COSMO-SkyMed of the Italian Space Agency (ASI). In black are shown on the edges of the caldera. C) Lifting of the soil in the Rione Terra of Pozzuoli from 2007 to 2023.
Fig. 2: the interpretative Scheme of the power supply system of the Campi Flegrei from 2007 to 2023. The data modeling of the deformation of the soil during the 2007-2023 and simulations petrologiche have allowed us to define the ascent of magma from 8 km depth. This caused the expansion of a spring deformation at lower depths, that from about 6 km has reached about 4 km in 2015. Although it is not possible to define with certainty the presence of magma at 4 km, the study establishes for the first time that the magma ascent from the accumulation zone to 8 km depth is the main engine of the volcanic activity in the course of the Phlegraean Fields, which involves the slow lifting of the soil, the degassing of the Solfatara and seismic crises.

 

[bjdeming]

No changes -- this just counterbalances that scary image a bit because INGV's routine report is exactly that: routine.

Per GT:

Page 1
CAMPI FLEGREI
Download
Weekly Bulletin
10/14/2024 – 10/20/2024
(Date of issue 10/22/2024)

1. SUMMARY OF ACTIVITY STATUS
___________________________________

In light of the monitoring data, it is highlighted:

1) SEISMOLOGY: In the week from 14 to 20 October 2024, in the Campi Flegrei area, 18 earthquakes with magnitude Md≥0.0 (Mdmax=1.4±0.3) were located.

2) DEFORMATIONS: Since the beginning of August, a reduction in the speed of ground uplift has been recorded, the average value of which is approximately 10±3 mm/month at the RITE GNSS station.

3) GEOCHEMISTRY: No significant changes were reported in the geochemical parameters monitored
in the reference week compared to the already known trends of increased flows and heating of the
hydrothermal system. The temperature sensor installed in a fumarolic emission 5 meters from the main fumarole of Pisciarelli showed an average value of ~95°C condensation temperature of the fumarolic fluid.

2. EXPECTED SCENARIOS
___________________________________

Based on the current picture of volcanic activity outlined above, there are no elements that suggest significant short-term evolutions.
N.B. Any changes in the monitored parameters, which may lead to a different evolution of the phenomena described above,
will be the subject of in-depth analyses promptly communicated.

...

 

[bjdeming]

The short-term situation hasn't changed.

Some top INGV experts recently released a paper about collecting quantitative data as objectively as possible -- I don't know if they get into event trees and other statistical ways to remove as much human subjectivity as possible from the very challenging process of trying to forecast outcomes at an active and restless volcano that's undergoing unrest.

From the press release (Italian) via GT:

The analysis of the deformation and seismicity data recorded in the Phlegraean caldera between 2000 and 2023 has highlighted the close relationship between ground uplift and the number of earthquakes

A team of researchers from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) has analyzed the evolution of ground deformation and seismic activity at Campi Flegrei from 2000 to 2023, quantifying their acceleration over time and deriving an exponential relationship between the maximum uplift of the caldera and the cumulative number of seismic events.

The results, presented in the article “Accelerating upper crustal deformation and seismicity of Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), during the 2000-2023 unrest” just published in the journal ‘Communications Earth & Environment’ of Nature, derive from the study of the main geophysical signals recorded at Campi Flegrei by the monitoring networks of the Vesuvius Observatory of the INGV that the recent evolution of bradyseism has allowed to analyze in depth.

“The study carried out”, explains Augusto Neri, researcher at the INGV and coordinator of the research, “does not adopt specific physical models a priori but rather aims to represent the evolution of the crisis in a way that is as objective and neutral as possible through a rigorous mathematical analysis of the data from the geophysical monitoring networks. Through this analysis it is possible to represent, albeit in synthetic and approximate terms, the behavior of the volcano and highlight its changes over time with the ultimate goal of improving the understanding of its functioning”.

In particular, the study highlighted the continuation of a long-term (decennial) acceleration of geophysical variables that began in 2005 and how this acceleration has not been constant over time. "On a decadal scale", explains Andrea Bevilacqua, researcher at INGV and first author of the study, "the ground uplift follows a parabolic trend with an average acceleration of about 0.7-0.8 cm/year² with reference to the GNSS station of Rione Terra in Pozzuoli, at the center of the caldera. The temporal trend of the earthquake rate is instead super-exponential, that is, faster than an exponential trend. However, it is important to highlight how these trends are not constant over time but subject to oscillations of various frequencies. The main periods of these oscillations vary from about 2 to 5 months (for the shortest periods) up to about 1.5 and 3 years (for the longest periods). In recent years, a tendency towards a reduction of these periods of about 10-15% has also been observed. One implication of these results is that periods of reduced seismic activity are not necessarily indicative of a change in the decadal behavior of the volcano."

A particularly interesting aspect of the study concerned the relationship between ground deformation and the number of recorded earthquakes.

"The study highlighted," continues Neri, "a clear exponential relationship between maximum caldera uplift and cumulative number of recorded earthquakes. This relationship is different from the linear one observed during the last bradyseismic crisis of 1982-1984. Furthermore, the exponential relationship became stronger starting from around the year 2020, that is, as the caldera uplift approached the maximum level reached during the crisis of 1982-1984. The relationship explains why the caldera uplift recorded in recent years has been accompanied by more intense seismic activity compared to previous years. This behavior is similar to that of quasi-elastic materials subjected to increasing stress and can be interpreted as a progressive deterioration of the mechanical properties of the uppermost crust of the Campi Flegrei"

...

 

[bjdeming]

From the blog:

December 7, 2024, 10:42 a.m., Pacific: Just two things from this morning’s social media, but they are significant.

イタリア、Campi Flegrei の地震活動、今日になって活発化。INGVによる観測点CSOB（Solfatara火口の東縁）の最新の記録と12月になってからの震央分布。震源はSolfatara火口のすぐ南に集中していて、ほとんどの地震が1km以浅ととても浅い。 pic.twitter.com/rcobSnZIFu
— hacchan9642 (@hacchan9642) December 6, 2024

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

X translation: “Seismic activity in Campi Flegrei, Italy has increased today. The latest records from INGV’s CSOB observation point (eastern edge of Solfatara crater) and epicenter distribution since December. The epicenters are concentrated just south of Solfatara crater, and most of the earthquakes are very shallow, less than 1 km deep.”

---

This news article in a Facebook post shared by INGV.

Per Google translation,

Di Vito: “The crust continues to deform, we continue to monitor the crisis”
The director of the Vesuvius Observatory on the seismic swarm: “Currently there are no evident changes in the bradyseismic scenario”
06/12/2024
“Since this morning we have recorded about twenty events, some felt by the population. The most intense was of magnitude 3.4 . The seismicity is concentrated in the area around the Air Force Academy of Pozzuoli, at a relatively low depth”. This is the analysis of Mauro Di Vito, director of the Vesuvius Observatory, on the seismic swarm underway at Campi Flegrei.
“The crust continues to deform, even at a reduced speed: it has accumulated stress and is releasing it. The scenarios? We continue to follow this crisis to understand if there are changes, but currently they are not evident”.

I just came across this, and it’s a hopeful sign that it’s all from yesterday — apparently there are no updates yet today but I will do some in-depth checking and add news from today below, if needed.

The alert level currently is unchanged, at Yellow.

Will add news, if any, here, too, of course.