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Campi Flegrei

bjdeming

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Confession: I'm selectively reading the news (because it really upsets me that a volcanic alert is so politicized in such a high-risk situation).

Today was the big meeting with mayors and emergency managers, but I chose to just focus on this (autotranslated).

There is no mention of an orange alert, but they stress that there is some magma in the superficial system and, again (with a correction):

The two possible scenarios​


Doglioni clarified that there are two possible scenarios that emerge regarding the evolution of the situation: the best is that the ongoing bradyseism crisis ends, as happened in 1983-84, the worst is an eruption similar to that of 1538. It is, he specified, "an evolution that we do not know and that we are monitoring".


The most recent eruption of the Campi Flegrei occurred in 1538​


"At the moment - he said - the most critical scenario is an eruption like that of Monte Nuovo", which dates back to 1538, the most recent of the over 70 explosive eruptions that occurred in the Campi Flegrei. This is a very different event from the one that occurred 39 thousand years ago, when the eruption released over 400 cubic meters [sic: it was cubic kilometers] of material. In the case of an eruption "we don't know when or where it could happen. And, however small, it would cause social disruption." And in any case "it is impossible to think that the Campi Flegrei will go out because they are an active volcano".

This is that 39-ka eruption they mention with a careful estimate of the actual amount in DRE (corresponding to actual magma volume, if I understand it correctly).
 

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This news (autotranslated) is actually about Vesuvius, but they mention Campi Flegrei:

Communication relating to the seismic event of 11 March 2024 at 7.08pm​


March 12, 2024

Map of seismic events located on Vesuvius from January 2023 to 11 March 2024 The circles indicate the location of the epicenters The size of the circles is proportional to the Magnitude The color indicates, from red to green, the most recent to the least recent events I yellow triangles indicate the position of the seismic stations Map of seismic events localized at Vesuvius from January 2023 to March 11, 2024.
The circles indicate the location of the epicentres. The size of the circles is proportional to the Magnitude. The color indicates, from red to green, the most recent to the oldest events. The yellow triangles indicate the position of the seismic stations
Vesuvius is an active volcano and, like all active volcanoes, has its characteristic seismicity, connected with the normal evolution of the volcano in a period of quiescence like the current one.

The seismicity of Vesuvius is totally independent from that occurring at the Campi Flegrei, which is linked to a different dynamic. Hundreds of seismic events are currently being recorded at Vesuvius , generally of very low magnitude and not felt by the population, which are periodically interspersed with events of greater energy, such as the one that occurred in March last year, which reached the magnitude of 2.8 .

Seismic events such as the one that occurred on the evening of March 11, 2024, are much rarer and generally represent isolated cases which, unlike the more common ones, can occur outside the crater axis and at greater depths, probably related to the partial and local reactivation of faults affecting the base of the volcanic building.

The strongest earthquake recorded in the Vesuvian area, from 1944 to today, was the one that occurred in 1999, which was of magnitude 3.6. As isolated events, these earthquakes do not give particular information on the activity of the volcano but, naturally, all the INGV surveillance systems, which monitor all the physical and chemical parameters that characterize Vesuvius, are constantly active to promptly highlight any variation which can give indications on the state of the volcanic system.

To date, the multiparametric Vesuvius monitoring network of the INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano has not recorded anomalies attributable to variations in the dynamic state of the volcano and therefore the current alert level is green.
 

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It never stays quiet for long on the Fiery Fields -- this small swarm of nine events today is more typical of background CF activity (layperson opinion!) than the ones earlier that led to an increased alert level and much excitement, fear, and anxiety for a while. No alert level rise for this:

 

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No notable news, but this is something to watch. INGV tweeted that they're holding a public information meeting today.

And this, from a more knowledgeable source than me, via Twitter translation: "Last summer, there were many earthquakes in Campi Flegrei, west of Naples, which caused a bit of a stir. Seismic activity has been increasing slightly this year, but has surged since April. The largest earthquake was M3.2 on the 4th, which was directly beneath the port of Pozzuoli. Epicenter distribution from April and M-T diagram and cumulative number from August 2023."



Yes, I'm posting in English about a Japanese-language comment on an Italian volcano. This is the 21st-century I've expected. Now about those hoverboards...
 

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Found the firefighter account. Per Twitter translation "...At the moment no damage has been reported to the operations rooms #vigilidelfuoco . Interventions are underway to open doors of homes left quickly during the tremors [ #14aprile 10.45]"

 

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Somebody tweeted this ten minutes ago (TT): "15 tremors recorded in half an hour in the Phlegraean area, the strongest of magnitude 3.7: people in the street..."



(And some apparently want to go back in and are on the phone to the fire department :) )
 

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Scary morning round northern Naples Bay shores:

"...There were as many as fifteen - according to the website of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology - the earthquake tremors recorded this morning in the Campi Flegrei area in the space of just half an hour, between 9.39 and 10.08. The strongest event was of magnitude 3.7, at 9.44 am, followed by a 3.1 quake at 9.46 am and a 3.0 quake at 10.01 am. The swarm ended at 10.08 with a 2.5 magnitude shock. The epicenters vary in depth, from one to three kilometers.

The phenomenon of bradyseism in the Phlegraean area continues, causing earthquakes as intense as today's, "but the risk of an evolution exists, theoretically, for the future: at the moment there is no sign of a possible eruptive crisis" . The director of the Vesuvian Observatory, Mauro Di Vito, says this to the microphones of Tgr Campania..."

-- Source (Italian, browser translated)
 

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This is INGV's routine monthly report (Italian):



From the Google translation of that linked PDF document (I have no idea why Google brought in the chicken :) but RITE is basically at the center of deformation, and the swarm was from that uplift):

...from 8 to 14 April 2024, in the Campi Flegrei area, were 242 earthquakes with magnitude Md≥0.0 (Mdmax=3.7±0.3) were localized.

2) DEFORMATIONS: From the beginning of 2024 the average value of the lifting speed in the area of maximum deformation is approximately 10±3 mm/month at the Rione Terra GNSS station (RITE).

In the interval 9-10 April, a ground rise of approximately 1 cm was recorded at the station RITE GNSS. Subsequently the lifting speed returned to its previous values registered in 2024.

3) GEOCHEMISTRY: There are no significant variations in the geochemical parameters monitored in the reference period with respect to the trends of increase in flows and heating of the system already known hydrothermal. The temperature sensor installed in a fumarole emission 5 meters from the Pisciarelli's main fumarole recorded a slight increase in temperature value on Saturday 13, ~94°C to ~96°C. The level of the liquid in Pisciarelli's pool has decreased again, making the chicken practically dry.

2. EXPECTED SCENARIOS

Based on the current picture of volcanic activity outlined above, no elements are highlighted such as to suggest significant short-term developments.

N.B. Any variations in the monitored parameters, which may lead to a different evolution of the phenomena described above will be the subject of further investigation promptly communicated.
 

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Here we go again, but not necessarily in the same place:

"PHLEGREAN FIELDS - SWARM UPDATE (27-04-2024 13:17)An earthquake swarm has been underway since 01:38 (local time) on 04/26/2024. At 1.17pm today, 51 earthquakes with magnitude Md ≥ 0.0 and a maximum magnitude Md = 3.9 ± 0.3 were detected."

 

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At least it didn't last long:



"PHLEGREAN FIELDS - END OF THE SWARM (28-04-2024 03:22)The seismic swarm that began at 1:38 am (local time) on 04/24/2024 and consisted preliminarily of 84 earthquakes with magnitude Md ≥ 0.0 and max magnitude Md =3 .9±0.3 has ended.Gossip database info https://..."

Swarms do also happen out in the bay, closer to the caldera's center.
 

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Campi Flegrei had another swarm from the 29th to the 30th. From the data at that link, most were microquakes, with the strongest being two 2-pointers on the 29th and one 2-pointer today. It was a fine sciame It's over now.

 

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In their latest bulletin, INGV notes that they do not see any changes likely in the near future. :)

This was apparently in the pipeline when the 4/29-30 swarm occurred.

Per machine translator (for graphics, see their bulletin, which can be downloaded here -- Italian):

SUMMARY STATUS OF ACTIVITY

In light of the monitoring data, it is highlighted:

1) SEISMOLOGY: In the week from 22 to 28 April 2024, in the Campi Flegrei area, there were 193 earthquakes with magnitude Md≥0.0 (Mdmax=3.9±0.3) were localized.

2) DEFORMATIONS: In the last 21 days there has been an uplift in the maximum area deformation of about 2.5 centimeters.

3) GEOCHEMISTRY: There are no significant variations in the geochemical parameters monitored in the reference period with respect to the trends of increase in flows and heating of the system already known hydrothermal. The temperature sensor installed in a fumarole emission 5 meters from the
Pisciarelli's main fumarole showed an average value of ~94°C. It is in Pisciarelli's pool the liquid level rose again.

2. EXPECTED SCENARIOS

Based on the current picture of volcanic activity outlined above, no elements are highlighted such as to suggest significant short-term developments.

N.B. Any variations in the monitored parameters, which may lead to a different evolution of the phenomena
above described, they will be object Of
insights promptly communicated.

3) SEISMOLOGY

From 22 to 28 April 2024, in the Campi Flegrei area, 193 earthquakes were located with magnitude Md≥0.0 (Mdmax=3.9±0.3; Figure 3.1).

...

108 earthquakes occurred during 2 seismic swarms:

● the first, from 01:36 UTC on 04/23/2024 consisting of 13 earthquakes with 0.0≤Md≤1.6 (±0.3),
occurred in the Pozzuoli area;

● the second, from 01:38 UTC on 04/26/2024 consisting of 95 earthquakes with 0.0≤Md≤3.9
(±0.3), which occurred in the Pozzuoli area and the Gulf of Pozzuoli.

...

INGV |Vesuvian Observatory – Weekly Bulletin Campi Flegrei 30/04//2024
 

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Another fine sciame -- this one was short, happening today briefly, with two 3-pointers, some M1's, and a couple microquakes.

[INGVvulcani on X: "CAMPI FLEGREI - FiNE SCIAME 10/05/2024 ore 16.35 Si è concluso lo sciame sismico ai #CampiFlegrei iniziato alle ore 12.31 (ora locale) del 10/05/2024 e costituito in via preliminare da 5 terremoti con magnitudo Md≥0.0 e magnitudo max Md=3.7±0.3. Info: https://t.co/wXMz5elXFQ https://t.co/BYA0OQc0ih" /

The location was not typical -- out near the caldera center rather than in the Solfatara region. According to this paper, there is ongoing uplift out there (also, the system is complex and active on many areas). No changes in alert level.
 

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A new swarm (autotranslated) is underway; the quakes aren't large, but two things caught my attention:

1. INGV is following up tweets very closely, promising more news in 3-6 hours with the last two tweets.

2. The epicenters are not in the Solfatara area where swarms usually occur, as you can see on the tweet graphics.

Tweeted five hours ago, this shows an epicenter out in the bay where some of those from May 10th were located:

[INGVvulcani on X: "2 COMUNICATI INGV-OV Evento sismico #Campi Flegrei alle ore loc. 08:38:59 (06:38:59 UTC) del 12/05/2024 di magnitudo Md= 1.7±0.3 e prof. 4.7±0.3 km. Dalle ore 8:39 (06:39 UTC) nell'area è in corso uno sciame sismico con magnitudo max Md= 1.7±0.3 #INGV #osservatoriovesuviano https://t.co/HeSdR5z6qh" /

Tweeted four hours ago, these are north of Pozzuoli (though still in the caldera):

[INGVvulcani on X: "Comunicato aggiornamento #INGV n. 1 Dalle h.8:39 loc. (06:39 UTC) del 12/05/2024 è in corso uno sciame sismico #CampiFlegrei. In via preliminare, sono stati rilevati 5 terremoti con M compresa fra Md ≥ 0.0 e una Mmax Md= 1.7±0.3. Entro 3/6 ore, ulteriore aggiornamento. https://t.co/N1c4Y47VsH" /

Tweeted one hour ago, this shows a new epicenter in Pozzuoli:

[INGVvulcani on X: "Comunicato #INGV-OV di aggiornamento n. 2 Dalle h.06:39 UTC del 12/05/2024 è in corso uno sciame sismico ai #CampiFlegrei. All’ora di emissione del Comunicato erano stati rilevati in via preliminare 7 terremoti con magnitudo Md ≥0.0 e Mmax Md = 1.7±0.3. Entro 3/6 h. nuove info https://t.co/g3bEQB9q19" /

They ordinarily don't promise new updates in tweets about swarms -- ? whether it's because of the widespread centers or for reassurance because it's Sunday and everyone had a scare recently with that coincidental quake at Vesuvius during a CF swarm.

Maybe it's a little of both.

Anyway, here is the status page -- alert level is unchanged at Yellow. (Italian)
 
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bjdeming

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An hour ago:

[INGVvulcani on X: "CAMPI FLEGREI - AGGIORNAMENTO SCIAME N. 3. Dalle ore 08:39 (ora locale) del 12/05/2024 è in corso ai #CampiFlegrei uno sciame sismico. Alle ore 16:07 rilevati in via preliminare 11 terremoti con magnitudo Md≥0.0 e magnitudo max Md=1.7±0.3. Info https://t.co/Axlgv6PL7U https://t.co/wDe5x24b8b" /

There is no mention this time of further news updates in a few hours. Perhaps their instrumental readings show more of a stable pattern now? (This layperson thinks that patterns of activity at restless calderas aren't necessarily good news but they are better than seemingly random repetitive events that might happen before something nonlinear, like an eruption -- again, nothing indicates that here now, per INGV's April bulletin, which is also at that status link above, and many experts, as mentioned earlier in the thread, would expect a "normal"-sized eruption, if one were to occur, like the 1538 Monte Nuovo eruption, not something very large like the Campanian or Neapolitan Yellow Tuff events).

The new quake shown on the graphic is close to the earlier one on Pozzuoli. The link in this tweet takes you to the current quake list in table format (Italian).

There isn't much local coverage in Italian-language news search.

Fingers crossed for a "fine sciame" soon.
 
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