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Campi Flegrei

bjdeming

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For now, the stable situation remains, monitored at all times.

-- Source (autotranslated)

I think there is another meeting on the 7th, in terms of the Orange alert controversy.
 

bjdeming

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Confession: I'm selectively reading the news (because it really upsets me that a volcanic alert is so politicized in such a high-risk situation).

Today was the big meeting with mayors and emergency managers, but I chose to just focus on this (autotranslated).

There is no mention of an orange alert, but they stress that there is some magma in the superficial system and, again (with a correction):

The two possible scenarios​


Doglioni clarified that there are two possible scenarios that emerge regarding the evolution of the situation: the best is that the ongoing bradyseism crisis ends, as happened in 1983-84, the worst is an eruption similar to that of 1538. It is, he specified, "an evolution that we do not know and that we are monitoring".


The most recent eruption of the Campi Flegrei occurred in 1538​


"At the moment - he said - the most critical scenario is an eruption like that of Monte Nuovo", which dates back to 1538, the most recent of the over 70 explosive eruptions that occurred in the Campi Flegrei. This is a very different event from the one that occurred 39 thousand years ago, when the eruption released over 400 cubic meters [sic: it was cubic kilometers] of material. In the case of an eruption "we don't know when or where it could happen. And, however small, it would cause social disruption." And in any case "it is impossible to think that the Campi Flegrei will go out because they are an active volcano".

This is that 39-ka eruption they mention with a careful estimate of the actual amount in DRE (corresponding to actual magma volume, if I understand it correctly).
 

bjdeming

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Per Google translation of latest report, only 17 quakes were detected between Nov. 6 and Nov. 12, and the lifting rate was only 4 mm/month (it had been 15). :)
 

bjdeming

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It's still at Yellow alert, no new swarms -- just haven't seen an in-depth followup of the overall risky situation until this one.
 
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