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Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

MMWX (FKA TornadoFan17) said:
Memphis might experience Hurricane Elvis 2.0 as this bow echo moves through.
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Wow, why do all the interesting things happen when I step away lol MDT upgrade! My model is coming in as we speak for a last look at today. Let's see what it says!

This is a WRF-ARW run at 2 km resolution centered at Jackson, MS (in retrospect, maybe a tad south of the main threat, but overall, good placement).


At 4 PM CDT, an aggressive line of embedded supercells is making their way into Mississippi with a Hail and Tornado threat.
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At 5 PM CDT. While the STP and SCP are both impressive, the Updraft Helicity co-located with the cells leaves a bit to be desired, so at least if this model portion verifies, the overall tornadic risk would favor weaker tornadoes at this point.


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At 6 PM CDT. A hail threat (low-end) is present and one dominant tornadic cell with UH of 228 in northern MS.

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By 7 PM CDT, overall lower-end threat, but some hail and tornado potential in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

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At 8 PM, a tornado threat in northern MS is increasing. Still lower-end UH though.

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By 10PM CDT, a northern MS cell with moderate tornadic potential is showing up, along with several hailers possible.


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At midnight CDT, there's numerous lower-end tornadic cells and hailer cells. The high Vertically Integrated Graupel that is showing up in the storm cores (if you look over at the profiles on the left-hand side) indicate vigorous thunderstorm activity likely with lots of lightning and some hail possible.


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At 1 AM, the intense line of storms is marching through Mississippi with several pockets of rotation that would need to be watched embedded throughout.

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By 3 AM CDT, the line is encroaching upon AL, and there still is an embedded tornado and hail risk (surprisingly, this model hasn't picked up on severe wind risk at all? Interesting...)

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The model is still running, but it continues to look like the threat decreases as it move further east towards Alabama. Overall, this model run shows a *localized* risk of significant tornado potential later this evening across MS, especially, but the sum of the threats look considerably less intense and alarming than this model has output in the past few days. The VIG supports lots of lightning and intense storm cores, but the severe threat looks to be on the lower end for most people. Still, I understand getting hit with an EF1 tornado will ruin your day, so it's relative...
 
The towns of Butler and Falmouth, KY, are now under mandatory evacuation orders due to severe flooding. After 4:00 PM today, all in-town utilities will be shut off and first responders will not be responding to any in-town calls.
 
wx_guy said:
I wonder if these cells will be constructive or destructive to the supercells later this afternoon/evening, including the line approaching.
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Not sure, at this stage they can absolutely go either way. Watch for consolidation as they move north, into a pocket of enhanced helicity.
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AJS said:
I just had a lightning strike right in front of my car. That was legitimately the scariest thing i’ve ever seen.
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Glad to know that you're safe, at least! That's definitely a need-to-change-pants moment right there!
 
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