Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

[Kds86z]

Profiles are still a little more saturated than I like to see as a chaser, but instability and low-level shear parameters are such that I think storms should have no problem producing several strong tornadoes. However, with the saturated profiles, high PWAT and a relative weakness in the mid-level shear, they might be quite grungy and rain-wrapped.

Not good for visibility

 

[Kds86z]

18z GFS will start coming out around 3:30 Central / 4:30 Eastern, if I can snab the first few hours of it, I'll run a real quick run to get one last glance for tonight's threat. But I'm afraid the action is going to start before that, in the next 1-2 hours.

How well did your model do for weds @wx_guy ?

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

Cell northeast of Waco might be one to watch.

 

[tornado examiner]

View attachment 39065
Cell northeast of Waco might be one to watch.

Wow went right over my old town. I used to live in groesbeck.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

18z Little Rock Sounding

 

[wx_guy]

StormNet Point Forecast for Murfreesboro Arkansas. I can check somewhere else if someone wants, I subscribe to StormNet.

 

[slenker]

18z Little Rock Sounding View attachment 39066

That moist layer seems way too deep. I have a feeling storms are going to struggle to produce anything strong, at least early on. I'm unsure what'll happen when the event is well underway.

 

[wx_guy]

How well did your model do for weds @wx_guy ?

Decent I'd say! It showed a messier mode than what actually happened, but it timed it pretty well and still showed all hell breaking lose. So I'd give it a solid B on Wednesday.

 

[Maxis_s]

18z Little Rock Sounding View attachment 39066

99% streamwise from the SFC to 0.5km. That's crazy.

 

[Kds86z]

Decent I'd say! It showed a messier mode than what actually happened, but it timed it pretty well and still showed all hell breaking lose. So I'd give it a solid B on Wednesday.

Thanks! I’m to lazy to go back and scroll

 

[tornado examiner]

Is it true that the hodograph curve gives an indication of what the supercell shapes will be?

 

[wx_guy]

Got Echo Tops going up 40-45k feet weset of Little Rock. I think in the next hour, we'll start the show.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Tanner]

18z Little Rock Sounding View attachment 39066

Oh my. That belongs in a freaking textbook like yesterday.

 

[jiharris0220]

Not on topic but here ya go anyways.

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

-image-
Cell northeast of Waco might be one to watch.

Update on that cell

 

[Maxis_s]

Not on topic but here ya go anyways.

 

[Maxis_s]

.....I beg your pardon?

 

[MMWX]

Man the humidity has been unbearable today in Starkville, even for Mississippi's standards.

It's going to feel like an armpit everywhere the warm front passes. Seeing Td values in the mid 70s in parts of Arkansas.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

View attachment 39073
.....I beg your pardon?

April 27th Arkansas version lol.