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Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

ColdFront said:
lol no.. not even close. It wouldn’t shock me to see mid-70s dews in parts of the OWS. Moisture is in plenty of supply. You may actually run into an issue where the moist layer is too deep, like @CheeselandSkies was discussing.
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Based on the 12Z SHV sounding shown in Trey's video (now that I've finally had a chance to look at it after work), the moisture layer wasn't quite as deep, and that ~700mb dry pocket I mentioned as being a fairly significant red flag for tornadic soundings is present. An ominous development...

Take a look at 12:56ish in the video to see what I mean.



Edit: The 18Z sounding posted a page or two (or three by now) ago does show the moist layer has since deepened, to close to but not quite what the HRRR was forecasting yesterday.
 
and
CheeselandSkies said:
Based on the SHV sounding shown in Trey's video (now that I've finally had a chance to look at it after work), the moisture layer wasn't quite as deep, and that ~700mb dry pocket I mentioned as being a fairly significant red flag for tornadic soundings is present. An ominous development...

Take a look at 12:56ish in the video to see what I mean.



Edit: The 18Z sounding posted a page or two (or three by now) ago does show the moist layer has deepened, to close to but not quite what the HRRR was forecasting yesterday.
Click to expand...

so something that wasn’t present is now?
 
Little cells are bubbling up across Mississippi. While they're behaving right this moment, the last few days have seen cells benefit from multicellular mergers, so watch out for that as convective coverage increases.
KDGX_loop.gifKNQA_loop.gif
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Based on the 12Z SHV sounding shown in Trey's video (now that I've finally had a chance to look at it after work), the moisture layer wasn't quite as deep, and that ~700mb dry pocket I mentioned as being a fairly significant red flag for tornadic soundings is present. An ominous development...

Take a look at 12:56ish in the video to see what I mean.



Edit: The 18Z sounding posted a page or two (or three by now) ago does show the moist layer has since deepened, to close to but not quite what the HRRR was forecasting yesterday.
Click to expand...

I Don't really know how that works so I'm assuming the too much moisture problem isn't as present?
 
Went out to lunch and missed 3 pages of thread! Haha

If the current radar/echo tops/satellite presentation is any indication, I think my model is going to be what happens and not the 15z HRRR. I think it's about to get VERY rough in central/northern Arkansas.
 
Ozonelayer said:
I Don't really know how that works so I'm assuming the too much moisture problem isn't as present?
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Patrick Swayze Love GIF
 
Profiles are still a little more saturated than I like to see as a chaser, but instability and low-level shear parameters are such that I think storms should have no problem producing several strong tornadoes. However, with the saturated profiles, high PWAT and a relative weakness in the mid-level shear, they might be quite grungy and rain-wrapped.
 
18z GFS will start coming out around 3:30 Central / 4:30 Eastern, if I can snab the first few hours of it, I'll run a real quick run to get one last glance for tonight's threat. But I'm afraid the action is going to start before that, in the next 1-2 hours.
 
wx_guy said:
Areas with 150-250 3CAPE moving up through the OWS. This is NOT going to end well.

View attachment 39063
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With 2000 J/kg+ CAPE, 150 J/kg-250J/kg of 3CAPE, low-mid 70s dew points, 500-800 LCLs, ~400 m2/s2 of SRH, and plenty more favorable parameters, I think we are in for another tornado outbreak, this time across the western half of Arkansas.
 
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