Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

[Maxis_s]

And the WOFS has began its first run and it wants a supercell bash in AR

Almost each WoFS ensemble member is showing multiple supercells with UH tracks in the warm sector. Very worrying.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Don't like those cells in far NW Texas. Shreveport radar shows echo tops reaching 45 kft on one cell and 40 kft on another. 2 others are around 30 kft.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Almost each WoFS ensemble member is showing multiple supercells with UH tracks in the warm sector. Very worrying.

Can y'all post?

 

[Maxis_s]

HREF showing very high values. It also thinks that the supercells in southern TX near Mexico may pose a significant tornado threat.

 

[Parker Copeland]

Almost each WoFS ensemble member is showing multiple supercells with UH tracks in the warm sector. Very worrying.

Yeah..... that's incredibly worrying. Def hope we don't see that come to fruition.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Almost each WoFS ensemble member is showing multiple supercells with UH tracks in the warm sector. Very worrying.

Heckuva last day for this ensemble, jeez. Talk about going out with a bang.

And yeah I don't think we're too far from things kicking off, especially with the lack of capping.

 

[Parker Copeland]

Here is 1 member, not sure if I can do a gif of all members but would mostly look like this...

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Here is 1 member, not sure if I can do a gif of all members but would mostly look like this...

Some clear right-movers there, yikes

 

[Maxis_s]

Can y'all post?

Each color is a different ensemble model. I would post the reflectivity paintball but it's way too messy to discern anything (since it's overlaying 18 different ones)

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

80/60 probs, wowza

 

[Parker Copeland]

View attachment 39046
Each color is a different ensemble model. I would post the reflectivity paintball but it's way too messy to discern anything (since it's overlaying 18 different ones)

Ah ok, I am not very fluent in WOFS lmao, so I don't know much Abt it, just found out how to use soundings like a few days back and been using it for a while

 

[Kds86z]

80/60 probs, wowza

I forget probs from weds. 90/90?

 

[Maxis_s]

I forget probs from weds. 90/90?

Yeah. Isn't the criteria for a PDS watch 80% or higher for an EF2+ tornado?

 

[Parker Copeland]

I forget probs from weds. 90/90?

yes, the probs for that was 90/90, second highest of da year, 80/80 is the threshold for a PDS TOA.

 

[Kds86z]

Confidence is lower here to due to weaker lapses rates..

 

[SmokeEater]

Oof

 

[ColdFront]

Current Sat picture showing Arkansas and parts of North Mississippi and Western TN.