Severe WX April 3-6 Severe weather

[Kds86z]

Here we go again

That south of front?

 

[AJS]

Here we go again

Oh for crying out loud. Why does it look so textbook too.

 

[AJS]

Wonder if any chasers are out on this storm.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That south of front?

It's along the front, I think the this is the warm front right here. Slight reflectivity line. May have a tornado threat eventually with this one, since it's on the warm front.

 

[CSimonds]

That south of front?

Yes. Looks to be riding just south of the stationary front

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Storms west of Shreveport need to really be watched. Most storms look like haulers currently, but could change

 

[Bulkshear]

Clear Mammatus clouds in Murfreesboro!

 

[CSimonds]

Hohenwald and Savannah TN storms bear watching. Not severe yet.

EDIT: they seem to be struggling for now

 

[Bulkshear]

Wonder if any chasers are out on this storm.

I may not need to chase if this tracks slightly south

 

[wx_guy]

Wow, Day 2 Moderate for Friday! No bueno! I feel really bad for the middle of the country, they're going through so much.

So I'm currently running a 2 km high resolution WRF-ARW model (for anyone doing the math, that's a 125% boost in the number of grid cells over the HRRR's 3 km model! It's centered on ole faithful, ie, Memphis (seems to be the center of so much lately). It's running from now through Saturday's weather, but it'll take a good while for it to finish, due to the higher-end resolution.

However! I'm going to analyze the frames *as they come in* to get relevant info to y'all as quickly as I can!

So without further ado, I have up to 12z tomorrow done already. Let's dive in! Since it's a very short-term threat, I prefer the Composite Radar + Threat Overlay and Profiles view because I think it disseminates the best info in the least real estate (If anyone wants to see any other metrics, I can do so! Just let me know.).


Here's the view from this model at 7 PM CDT tonight. Potent parameter space for sure, at least in localized places, but at least in this particular run, the UH isn't quite there, so even though there's a "High" risk, with such low UH helicity, I have doubts. We'll see!







And 8 PM CDT tonight:




9 PM, at least according to this model, the threat tonight is remaining contained, at least so far.





Same story at 10 PM CDT:






And 11 PM:




And at midnight, the threat is still very contained, but has somewhat shifted into Kentucky:




After midnight, even the Limited threat cells pretty much go away for the rest of the night. So will there be severe weather tonight? Yes, probably. Is it going to be anything like last night? Almost certainly not, and if anything, the rainfall and where the training cells set up may be the biggest story today. Until tomorrow, of course...

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Supercell near pine bluff Arkansas is spinning like a top. Probably elevated though.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Things are about to go.

* Just as I say that. A tornado warning south of Nashville

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[Bulkshear]

Things are about to go.

* Just as I say that. A tornado warning south of Nashville View attachment 38925

I’m 2 miles south of the 840 junction which you can see is just north of Murfreesboro

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Tornado warning northwest of Shreveport LA

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Pine bluff AR storm is rooted on the warm front. Brad arnold is chasing it. It's turning right.

 

[Sluggerwx]

Just snagged this off TDOT. i-65 and 840 traffic cam.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Just snagged this off TDOT. i-65 and 840 traffic cam.

This is near you @Bulkshear

 

[TornadoFan]

Just snagged this off TDOT. i-65 and 840 traffic cam.

Talk about a ground scraper.