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Severe WX April 29-May 2nd, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

Very complex and difficult to forecast setup today. There's an OFB near wichita that might kickstart initiation. Ignore the CAMs, they're all over the place and you won't get much useful info from them. The ingredients seem to be there, so I'm just keeping an eye on the convergence zones and cap, as well as the special soundings today. OUN has 18Z and 21Z scheduled iirc so that'll indicate a lot further south, and I think wichita is doing at least one as well.
 
Latest update from Norman says the cap has not changed much as of right now but will be "definitely breakable" by later this afternoon.
 
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Current OKC sounding shows a very strong cap, but SW OK is already showing 0 CIN and nearing being uncapped. With rapid surface heating, I have a feeling OK is going to overperform significantly today even into C OK. There's some subtle convergence occurring already in SW OK where the cap is eroding, and being that it's eroding as rapidly as it is, I would have to think it's going to erode downstream as well. NWS Noman already says via twitter that dewpoints are significantly higher than modeled, which could make a cap break more likely.

OUN has another sounding for 21Z scheduled, and based on what they're saying it seems they expect initiation around that time.

Meanwhile, KS has also rapidly trended towards earlier initiation between 19-21Z. Today went from a potentially meh chase to a potentially big day with multiple targets.
 
Tornado watch out. 60/50 tornado probs.

Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 157

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
Tennie said:
Tornado watch out. 60/50 tornado probs.

Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 157

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
Click to expand...

Beat me to it. Seems to be centered a little west of most of the MDT/hatched area. For several occasions going back to at least 12/10/21 (which would certainly have merited it, in hindsight) they haven't gone PDS in a 15% hatched. We'll see...
 
New mesoscale discussion out. Mentions 80 percent chance of watch being issued for eastern KS/OK.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 582

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
Definitely some strong wording with the recent MCD. Potential is certainly there for today to be one of the bigger Central Plain events in recent years if the cap can successfully erode, but like with most events in this region, it's a big IF.
 
OHWX97 said:
Definitely some strong wording with the recent MCD. Potential is certainly there for today to be one of the bigger Central Plain events in recent years if the cap can successfully erode, but like with most events in this region, it's a big IF.
Click to expand...
5/20/19 comes to mind
 
Tornado watch out for eastern KS. 70/60 tornado probs.

Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 158

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
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