Severe WX April 29-May 2nd, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

[Brice Wood]

Big hailers possible in Texas today, tornado risk is only a 5%.

 

[UK_EF4]

Latest HRRR run fails to fire any storms along the dryline into Oklahoma, which is lucky given the parameter space. However, I have a question - the run depicts large CAPE along a pronounced dryline, with no Capping. Therefore why would storms not develop? Is it lack of moisture quality (compared to the open warm sector) right next to the dryline or something else - anyone have any thoughts?.

 

[andyhb]

Latest HRRR run fails to fire any storms along the dryline into Oklahoma, which is lucky given the parameter space. However, I have a question - the run depicts large CAPE along a pronounced dryline, with no Capping. Therefore why would storms not develop? Is it lack of moisture quality (compared to the open warm sector) right next to the dryline or something else - anyone have any thoughts?.

Probably that mixing along the dryline leading to lower moisture quality.

 

[Brice Wood]

Been awhile since they said, “an EF3+ tornado may occur.”


Edit: This is for Monday

 

[CheeselandSkies]

View attachment 13720
Been awhile since they said, “an EF3+ tornado may occur.”

Broyles'd.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

 

[TH2002]

Some of @Shakespeare 2016's damage photos (note he texted these to me so resolution isn't the best, he has more photos so hope to get better copies of those)

 

[atrainguy]

 

[Brice Wood]

Severe thunderstorm warning on the NM\TX border

 

[UK_EF4]

Well I now really struggle to see how Central Oklahoma wouldn't fire storms on the latest HRRR run, despite it only showing a few showers. Area of 70F moisture right next to the dryline as well, including a dryline bulge-ish feature which I could imagine being a focus for storm initiation. I wonder what high-res guidance and observations will show tomorrow but potential for a very high ceiling event I think through much/most of Oklahoma into Kansas. The biggest limiting factor apart from any initiation would probably be any discrete storms becoming linear associated with cold front/outflow which is modelled later on.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The northern section of the enhanced risk should get a moderate 15% tornado upgrade. Could have done it in the new day 2, but the new forecaster withheld from doing it.

 

[buckeye05]

Some of @Shakespeare 2016's damage photos (note he texted these to me so resolution isn't the best, he has more photos so hope to get better copies of those)
View attachment 13721
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That debarked tree branch will make for an awesome tornadic “souvenir”! He should hang on to that, as it will make for a great memento and decoration with an interesting story behind it.

After the Dayton EF4, I actually found a partially debarked, insulation-caked tree branch in my friend’s yard, one suburb over from where the tornado lifted (debris fallout most likely). I really regret not keeping it now!

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

That debarked tree branch will make for an awesome tornadic “souvenir”! He should hang on to that, as it will make for a great memento and decoration with an interesting story behind it.

After the Dayton EF4, I actually found a partially debarked, insulation-caked tree branch in my friend’s yard, one suburb over from where the tornado lifted (debris fallout most likely). I really regret not keeping it now!

I hope this tornado gets upgraded to EF4. Go to dat and there was a rather large anchor bolted home with toenails that was almost entirely swept away. Also there is some rather intense context near the house. Yes, I will keep that completely debarked branch as a souvenir.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

That debarked tree branch will make for an awesome tornadic “souvenir”! He should hang on to that, as it will make for a great memento and decoration with an interesting story behind it.

After the Dayton EF4, I actually found a partially debarked, insulation-caked tree branch in my friend’s yard, one suburb over from where the tornado lifted (debris fallout most likely). I really regret not keeping it now!

It can seems so morbid at times that I am intrigued by looking at tornado damage. I saw the damage and I was just like wow.

 

[TH2002]

Some more

 

[buckeye05]

I hope this tornado gets upgraded to EF4. Go to dat and there was a rather large anchor bolted home with toenails that was almost entirely swept away. Also there is some rather intense context near the house. Yes, I will keep that completely debarked branch as a souvenir.

Is it on the DAT for sure, and if so where at? All the swept away homes I have seen so far appear to have separated from their subfloors, which is EF3. Did they maybe remove the damage point from the DAT? Not doubting you though, especially if you saw it in person. If one of the homes did indeed have its subfloor ripped off, I'd have to agree with you.

Edit: Ok seeing some bolts now, but only in the garage portion of the foundation. If you're looking for an EF4 rating, you might not get one if only the garage walls were thoroughly bolted down. This is typical of modern basement foundation homes unfortunately.

 

[OHWX97]

Slightly off-topic, but a very rare tornado touched down in Puerto Rico a few hours ago.

 

[atrainguy]

Observed tornado warning in Texas.

 

[atrainguy]

 

[tornado examiner]

if homes with multiple walls standing are receiving 165mph EF3 ratings. that either means the homes are very well built....or the nws is being lazy lol.

 

[tornado examiner]

that one slabbed metal show room near the ymca has been given a 165mph rating so far. the whole tornado is still EF3+ on the dat. so an EF4 rating is still on the table.