CheeselandSkies
Member
18Z HRRR and 3K NAM continue to suggest that much of MO into northern AR have a problem tomorrow. Instability axis ahead of the cold front gradually getting wider compared to earlier runs.
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April 20th 2025 severe threat
- Thread starter UncleJuJu98
- Start date
snostorm21
Member
Would be shocked if SPC doesnt go TOR hatched in day 1 outlook.
00z CAMs in so far continue with a borderline outbreak scenario from MO south into N AR. Multiple semi discrete supercells in some extreme low level shear.
Muwx
Member
I think tomorrow has a chance to go moderate and it’s not getting nearly the hype it deserves. Especially with so many people distracted by Easter tomorrow.
US_Highway15
Member
I agree. The high-end EF3 Nappanee tornado of 2007 was produced in a line of severe storms.
CheeselandSkies
Member
HRRR soundings for central MO tomorrow afternoon ahead of ongoing simulated supercells. Got SRH?
CAMs may have underestimated this convection overnight, wonder if that's going to substantially limit this afternoon's severe threat.
US_Highway15
Member
Kds86z
Member
New day 1 mentions instability concerns.
klouzek7079
Member
Still cloudy here in central MO so that tracks. We will see in the next few hours if the sun will poke out
CheeselandSkies
Member
Decent amount of clearing in AR/southern MO on visible satellite.
While some lingering cloud cover and showers remain, seems that convection from overnight largely dissipated. The exception being mainly over west-central MO where the bulk of the remnants are moving into now.
While some lingering cloud cover and showers remain, seems that convection from overnight largely dissipated. The exception being mainly over west-central MO where the bulk of the remnants are moving into now.
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Schoeppeya
Member
Observed surface based cape is definitely outperforming where the breaks in the clouds are, few more degrees of warming and it shouldn’t be an issue
klouzek7079
Member
Currently 60 in Central MO and expected to climb to 72 in the next few hours so it'll be interesting to see what happens
Muwx
Member
Storms in SWMO and NEOK seem to have a pretty strong northerly motion to them. Seems to be some breaks in the clouds behind them, it’ll be close on atmospheric recovery but it probably won’t take much.
Kds86z
Member
I imagine this is more applicable to longwaves, but wouldn’t the fast translational speed of the jet core in this case aid with discrete development today?
Kds86z
Member
Post from Convective Chronicles
OPEN FULL GRAPHIC: Unfortunately having some wifi issues out on the road, so no video today, but here's an update: SPC has maintained an Enhanced Risk (level...
youtube.com
US_Highway15
Member
CSU's severe weather probability has massively been underselling today's severe weather threat. We'll see who wins today.
- Thread starter
- #39
Latest HRRR is rather robust for QCLS and broken line QCLS tornadoes. Central Missouri looks like the best shot imo. Also the HRRR has a isolated supercell ahead of the line, so that'll be interesting to watch lol.
Kds86z
Member
Tornado possible tag