April 20th 2025 severe threat

[CheeselandSkies]

18Z HRRR and 3K NAM continue to suggest that much of MO into northern AR have a problem tomorrow. Instability axis ahead of the cold front gradually getting wider compared to earlier runs.

 

[snostorm21]

Would be shocked if SPC doesnt go TOR hatched in day 1 outlook.

 

[andyhb]

00z CAMs in so far continue with a borderline outbreak scenario from MO south into N AR. Multiple semi discrete supercells in some extreme low level shear.

 

[Muwx]

I think tomorrow has a chance to go moderate and it’s not getting nearly the hype it deserves. Especially with so many people distracted by Easter tomorrow.

 

[US_Highway15]

I think that's nonsense, low level shear is strong enough for significant tornadoes with either supercellular or QLCS modes.

I agree. The high-end EF3 Nappanee tornado of 2007 was produced in a line of severe storms.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

HRRR soundings for central MO tomorrow afternoon ahead of ongoing simulated supercells. Got SRH?

 

[andyhb]

CAMs may have underestimated this convection overnight, wonder if that's going to substantially limit this afternoon's severe threat.

 

[US_Highway15]

 

[Kds86z]

New day 1 mentions instability concerns.

 

[klouzek7079]

Still cloudy here in central MO so that tracks. We will see in the next few hours if the sun will poke out

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Decent amount of clearing in AR/southern MO on visible satellite.

While some lingering cloud cover and showers remain, seems that convection from overnight largely dissipated. The exception being mainly over west-central MO where the bulk of the remnants are moving into now.

 

[Schoeppeya]

Decent amount of clearing in AR/southern MO on visible satellite.

While some lingering cloud cover and showers remain, seems that convection from overnight largely dissipated. The exception being mainly over west-central MO where the bulk of the remnants are moving into now.

Observed surface based cape is definitely outperforming where the breaks in the clouds are, few more degrees of warming and it shouldn’t be an issue

 

[klouzek7079]

Observed surface based cape is definitely outperforming where the breaks in the clouds are, few more degrees of warming and it shouldn’t be an issue

Currently 60 in Central MO and expected to climb to 72 in the next few hours so it'll be interesting to see what happens

 

[Muwx]

Storms in SWMO and NEOK seem to have a pretty strong northerly motion to them. Seems to be some breaks in the clouds behind them, it’ll be close on atmospheric recovery but it probably won’t take much.

 

[Kds86z]

…

 

[slenker]

I imagine this is more applicable to longwaves, but wouldn’t the fast translational speed of the jet core in this case aid with discrete development today?

 

[Kds86z]

Post from Convective Chronicles

OPEN FULL GRAPHIC: Unfortunately having some wifi issues out on the road, so no video today, but here's an update: SPC has maintained an Enhanced Risk (level...

youtube.com

 

[US_Highway15]

CSU's severe weather probability has massively been underselling today's severe weather threat. We'll see who wins today.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Latest HRRR is rather robust for QCLS and broken line QCLS tornadoes. Central Missouri looks like the best shot imo. Also the HRRR has a isolated supercell ahead of the line, so that'll be interesting to watch lol.

 

[Kds86z]

Tornado possible tag