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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

I just looked at the probabilities or PDS TW 110. The SPC gave a 90% chance for 10+ severe wind events but only 10% for 65+ kts. We already had that too.
 
I mentioned Greene, Sumter, and Marengo earlier because the SPC mesoanalysis showed a pocket of much stouter low level lapse rates in that general area. Demopolis is still sitting on 76/77 degrees, and as you move eastward toward Selma and Dallas County the atmosphere is even richer.

Storms coming out of Southern MS look to eventually track that way. Very concerned what they may do later this evening in that area.
 
There is a severe thunderstorm warning back near Shreveport with no precipitation. It is for the gust front ahead of the storms. I don't think I have ever seen that.
 
Linear, elevated storms in Southern MS right now. Doesn't seem to have done the same thing the violent supercells earlier did. Tail end charlie back in LA is the only one that appears surface based. The HRRR is insistent that the threat for AL later tonight is with the storms still in LA and still to develop in the New Orleans area that will become surface based in southern alabama later tonight.
 
MikeP said:
Gotta wonder if the threat might be shifting further south. I could be totally wrong obviously
Click to expand...

Low level lapse rates are putrid the further north you go. 5.4ish around TCL. 6.8 or so right around Selma. I'm open to other explanations...but this seems to have a lot to do with it.
 
Clean foundation but based on the contextual damage and the neat pile of debris nearby, I'm going to guess that it was of relatively weak construction.
 
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