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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

That cell west of Hattiesburg likely has a violent tornado with it. The supercell could very well track into west AL in the next couple hours. It has a pure warm sector ahead of it.
 
That is a messy, messy storm mode for north central Alabama. Window is closing for a string of pearls scenario up there, though embedded tornadoes are still likely. Cap held on for too long, allowing for too much merging and upscale growth.

Time to shift focus to further south for the time being.
 
Surface based supercells developing in Central Louisiana. This indicates the HRRR has it right, and there may very well be more surface based storms going through the same areas that got hit this morning. These storms would be very tornadic in nature if they remain surface based.
 
That cell west of Hattiesburg likely has a violent tornado with it. The supercell could very well track into west AL in the next couple hours. It has a pure warm sector ahead of it.
C5FF0501-AF52-485B-A02A-60A23EB07617.png

these two are going to be problems. classic super cellular structures and very, very problematic spacing.
 
..TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
MARION...SOUTHERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHERN COVINGTON...NORTHWESTERN LAMAR
AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES...

AT 350 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR TILTON, OR 11 MILES NORTH OF KOKOMO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA. THIS IS A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.
 
That is a messy, messy storm mode for north central Alabama. Window is closing for a string of pearls scenario up there, though embedded tornadoes are still likely. Cap held on for too long, allowing for too much merging and upscale growth.

Time to shift focus to further south for the time being.
I wouldn't sound the all-clear for Central AL...by ANY stretch.
 
Two beautiful discrete supercells in Southern Mississippi. The threat for Central/Southern MS through Central/North Central Alabama will only increase through the evening.
 
That is a messy, messy storm mode for north central Alabama. Window is closing for a string of pearls scenario up there, though embedded tornadoes are still likely. Cap held on for too long, allowing for too much merging and upscale growth.

Time to shift focus to further south for the time being.
I said this earlier but it wasn't well received. It just doesn't seem like the ingredients are going to be there for Bham north.
 
I said this earlier but it wasn't well received. It just doesn't seem like the ingredients are going to be there for Bham north.
because not only is saying that incredibly premature, it’s incorrect and also dangerous. Birmingham and even points ~30-50 miles north are very much under the gun.
 
I wouldn't sound the all-clear for Central AL...by ANY stretch.
I’m not saying all clear for strong tornadoes, I’m just saying well spaced discrete supercell activity is looking less likely for that particular region. Things could still break apart into cells, but it’s looking pretty linear for the time being. We’ll see what happens.
 
I said this earlier but it wasn't well received. It just doesn't seem like the ingredients are going to be there for Bham north.
I’m not agreeing with you. The ingredients ARE there, and there will be tornadoes. All I’m saying is the prospect of discrete SUPERCELLS isn’t looking as good due to current storm mode. You’re still wrong.
 
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