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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

4/28/14 went high at 20z so definitely still time if uncertainty decreases, but not confident at this point they'll pull the trigger, very conservative lately
 
Kory said:
I can't believe they were actively discussing high risk with that system two weekends ago that looked like garbage...even after the morning convection that screwed things up...

But this...crickets? Just weird to me. But regardless, this is a very serious situation.
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Recency bias.
 
notice the moderate now stretches into Tennessee - looks like from Pulaski to Fayetteville and back down to where Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee meet.
 
Equus said:
4/28/14 went high at 20z so definitely still time if uncertainty decreases, but not confident at this point they'll pull the trigger, very conservative lately
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SPC always seems to turtle high risks for awhile after they Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency on one.
 
Justin Hindman said:
Once this has convection has passed, it’s gonna get ripe and unstable. It’s keeping it stable for the meantime but that was expected
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Yeah, to me it looks like there is a good bit of "junk" convection out and about. I was really expecting to see a temporary cleaner radar in some areas such as SW Alabama presently. Of course I know that can only mitigate things a bit but I am looking for any positivity as the situation develops.
 
Tornado emergency Monroe LA

Two significant tornadoes not far apart in progress
 
It looks like they did on the website, but the SPC Twitter feed just posted in the last few seconds what we were seeing

 
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