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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

I am in SE LA. Just took a brief walk (about .6 mi.) ... I am sweating some. It is very windy, very warm and there are plenty of blue sky gaps in the moisture training towards the biggest threat areas.
 
Warm front is on the move:

ttd.gif
 
Pretty ominous out. Breezy, very dark, low clouds screaming north, light rain. Temp and dews about to skyrocket
 
Mike S said:
An FYI to all the newer folks watching this thread - first of all, join!. Second of all - the thread automatically updates with new posts so you don't have to continuously jump out and jump back in. Stay safe!
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LONG time follower. Found this forum by happen stance about a week prior to the April 27th outbreak. The information I found here was invaluable that day (few miles away from the Smithville, MS storm). Changed my whole perspective about the power of weather after helping recovery efforts a few minutes after that tornado hit.

I'm just a layman and have no meteorological background but I've learned so much from following the past 9 years. Thank you to each and everyone of you for all the knowledge shared!
 
Diggs said:
LONG time follower. Found this forum by happen stance about a week prior to the April 27th outbreak. The information I found here was invaluable that day (few miles away from the Smithville, MS storm). Changed my whole perspective that day about the power of weather and try to help recovery efforts a few minutes after that storm hit.

I'm just a layman and have no meteorological background but I've learned so much from following the past 9 years. Thank you to each and everyone of you for all the knowledge shared!
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Agreed. I joined in early 2017 and I found that everyone here was very welcoming and willing to answer any questions that I had.
 
Bevo said:
Adding to the thread, this is a pretty notable example of what to look for.
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That’s a reflectivity debris ball, not a TDS. We’re referring to identifying debris signatures utilizing dual-pol correlation coefficient.
 
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Diggs said:
LONG time follower. Found this forum by happen stance about a week prior to the April 27th outbreak. The information I found here was invaluable that day (few miles away from the Smithville, MS storm). Changed my whole perspective about the power of weather after helping recovery efforts a few minutes after that tornado hit.

I'm just a layman and have no meteorological background but I've learned so much from following the past 9 years. Thank you to each and everyone of you for all the knowledge shared!
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Welcome. I've learned more about severe weather from this forum than any book I've read so far. Lots of great, knowledgeable folks.
 
Will the storm complex that is moving through central and North MS and about to hit North AL enhance the threat for this evening? Or help stabilize the atmosphere in the north and lay boundaries to the south?
 
Jpgood20 said:
Will the storm complex that is moving through central and North MS and about to hit North AL enhance the threat for this evening? Or help stabilize the atmosphere in the north and lay boundaries to the south?
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Once this has convection has passed, it’s gonna get ripe and unstable. It’s keeping it stable for the meantime but that was expected
 
Jpgood20 said:
Will the storm complex that is moving through central and North MS and about to hit North AL enhance the threat for this evening? Or help stabilize the atmosphere in the north and lay boundaries to the south?
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It looks like it'll enhance the helicity along and south of it and stabilize portions to the north. But, there will be some atmospheric recovery behind it. I think we have a pretty good idea of that corridor...between 20/59 and the TN border.
 
SPC:

THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION OUTPACING
STRONGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY (ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHEAST
EXTENT), AS WELL AS THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE MODE, TO PRECLUDE AN
UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK.
 
Equus said:
Moderate remains at 1630z
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I can't believe they were actively discussing high risk with that system two weekends ago that looked like garbage...even after the morning convection that screwed things up...

But this...crickets? Just weird to me. But regardless, this is a very serious situation.
 
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