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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

COD SPC page now has the Day 2 outlook and it is much different, large Enhanced risk with 10% hatched TOR from north central VA down to eastern GA, includes much of NC
 
I don't trust the CAMs right now to perfectly capture the evolution of the overnight and morning convection, but for what it's worth, 04z HRRR sounding near Jasper ahead of that line of supercells. Shear profiles are just... really don't have any adjectives left
hrrr_2020041204_018_33.68-87.18.png
 
Equus said:
I don't trust the CAMs right now to perfectly capture the evolution of the overnight and morning convection, but for what it's worth, 04z HRRR sounding near Jasper ahead of that line of supercells. Shear profiles are just... really don't have any adjectives left
hrrr_2020041204_018_33.68-87.18.png
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Great hodo and incredible turning with height there.
 
Also the parameters behind the string of pearls on HRRR still shows PDS soundings and strong/violent environment after it passes; multiple rounds of intense tornadoes is pretty much worst case
 
I'd have to pull up previous SigTor contours, but I could have sworn that the other ones posted in this thread had the 90 contour more toward Alabama, now it's swung westward to encompass Arkansas and Louisiana alongside Mississippi.

Things are beginning to brew and bubble in Texas now...I think the middle blob of storms sandwiched between the Tor Watch area and the growing MCS will probably reach DFW metro first, maybe 3-4 AM. For DFW metro it's been labeled as more of a hail/wind threat, but those soundings are kinda scary...
 
The HRRR has trended towards a much more open warm sector over the past several runs, and the MCS developing over east OK has a significant E/ENE component of motion.

The path for a morning high risk is paved.
 
jmills said:
The HRRR has trended towards a much more open warm sector over the past several runs, and the MCS developing over east OK has a significant E/ENE component of motion.

The path for a morning high risk is paved.
Click to expand...
The orientation of the cold front is going to be very important in determining the mode along the front. If the orientation is more N and less parallel to the storm motions, that cold front is going to produce some of the most dangerous supercells of the entire day, which would make the risk much higher in AR and TN. The latest SPC update expands the enhanced all the way into Kentucky likely to account for this possibility. In the case it's more parallel, it's more likely to be a QLCS with possible embedded supercells.
 
If the HRRR trends continue, and the convection out west trends more NE than E, I still think we easily see a high risk by 13z or 1630z; most of this started trending back upwards again too close to the issuance of the first D1 outlook to make an upgrade wise just yet I think. Dunno why the wording isn't in there, I think an upgrade is pretty likely. Really getting nervous chills here
 
brianc33710 said:
I'm not going to say wh
Yeah, and, after reading it, the SPC didn't even mention potentially pulling the High Risk trigger. Everything is there, so I would at least expect some sort of upgrade wording.
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It's really a question of confidence at this point. The parameters will be there whether moderate or high. Mesoscale features will determine the ceiling. SPC will want to see the trends tomorrow before upgrading, but really it is just semantics at this point. There have been plenty of moderate risk days that produced like a high risk, so I wouldn't focus too much on the nomenclature.
 
Equus said:
If the HRRR trends continue, and the convection out west trends more NE than E, I still think we easily see a high risk by 13z or 1630z; most of this started trending back upwards again too close to the issuance of the first D1 outlook to make an upgrade wise just yet I think. Dunno why the wording isn't in there, I think an upgrade is pretty likely. Really getting nervous chills here
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Agree. They will watch trends and see if the HRRR better latches onto storm positioning and mode. If it does, and continues to show the look it has over the past few runs, I believe a high risk upgrade will be likely. I think your post is dead on.
 
4/15/11 and 11/24/01 certainly show that moderate risk days can produce some of the most prolific outbreaks in state history; I'm sure we get too hung up on waiting for a 30% SIG contour to start sounding the alarms but really the 10/15 hatch days can be brutal (or hey even 2% in Cookeville's case) as can the 5-15% risk areas on a high risk day. Beauregard happened in an enhanced; Moore, Joplin, and El Reno in moderates. I'm too worried about potential impact really close to home to get hung up on probabilities at the moment hoenstly
 
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