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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

Kory said:
Tomorrow morning is now getting within the range of the normal 18 hour HRRR. Has surfaced based storms coming out of Texas and into Northern LA by 10am with a destabilizing atmosphere ahead of the complex across MS and AL.
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Looking at that, no sign of anything breaking ahead of the warm front...however those storms and rain cooled air in the Tenn Valley may cause the warm front hang up north of Cullman in the afternoon...the air there is very dry so it will become heavier than the warm air trying to move in.

Face value- HRRR right now is not good for the MOD outlooked areas.
 
James Spann posted an update to what I had posted earlier about some cities and their storm shelters:

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Gawxnative said:
Well IMO the way to look at this is you have the dynamics that normally occur with the "Winter Events" coupled with typical Spring instability factors. So if we can get significant tornado events in Jan-Feb, with "High Sheer/ Low Cape" this should be a basic "no brainer" so to speak.
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OK. I'll say that the following scenarios are compared for us in the SE, not nationwide.

I would say that with the winter events, there's a significantly larger chance of having a significant snow or ice storm when very little, if anything, is forecast to happen. Those of us in the SE remember latter January 2014 very well. And, less memorable mess ups seem to happen at least every other year.

While its not entirely impossible, there is a significantly smaller chance of a forecast for common run of the mill thunderstorms less than 6 hours ahead to turn into a significant tornado/severe weather event. Yes, the "cold-core" tornadoes this Feb in the mid Atlantic did catch us & the SPC off guard. But, having a major severe event at least shows up much more often in the models, and are far harder to miss.

So I would say that the chance of a winter weather event either missed or significantly underestimated v an unforecast or underforecast severe weather outbreak probably outweighs the latter at least 3:1.
 
Richardjacks said:
Looking at that, no sign of anything breaking ahead of the warm front...however those storms and rain cooled air in the Tenn Valley may cause the warm front hang up north of Cullman in the afternoon...the air there is very dry so it will become heavier than the warm air trying to move in.

Face value- HRRR right now is not good for the MOD outlooked areas.
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By not good do you mean stronger storms, not good or weaker storms, not good?
 
As of right now, there's three clusters of supercells marching E-NE, one cluster of which is sliding toward the DFW metro within the next 3-4 hours. Hoping these guys weaken before they get here though. SPC just announced in their last MD that they will most likely extend the tornado watch eastward and I would not be surprised if it included Tarrant and Dallas counties.

We had round 1 of storms earlier this afternoon. This is our round 2. Round 3 will be middle of the night into Sunday morning, and that's the one that is supposed to be the most volatile of situations.
 
Is this looking like less of a severe chance than we expected a few days ago?
 
Hello all. First post. Question: Is there a model that is most favored, or is the most accurate for Spring storms? Do you ever switch to another model as the event gets closer. Thanks.
 
Stormin360 said:
Hello all. First post. Question: Is there a model that is most favored, or is the most accurate for Spring storms? Do you ever switch to another model as the event gets closer. Thanks.
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Some models are geared more towards the very short range. Models aren’t believed to be very good right now due to the shortage of available commercial aircraft data.
Each model has its own personality anf handles certain aspects of the atmosphere better than others. Reading this entire thread and the pinned april 27th thread will give you a good idea.
 
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