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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

xJownage said:
His point seems to be that the STP with this system isn't going to make a huge difference on whether the system pans out as violent or not, and that storm modes and other factors are more likely to determine what we see.
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Perhaps he could say just that instead of also patronizing the on-topic post of another member? Part of the reason the 04/27/11 thread is a valuable archive is because people posted the "pretty colors" as a reference for the potential ceiling of the event. I don't see the issue of documenting such things as the forecast for this event evolves. It makes this thread a useful tool for retrospection and comparison both during and after the event.
 
Some people really need to stop calling absolutes over a day out for a day that is going to be heavily dependent on the mesoscale. Saying either a tornado outbreak or a big Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency is coming is ignoring the fact it could easily be a combination of both.
 
Evan said:
Perhaps he could say just that instead of also patronizing the on-topic post of another member? Part of the reason the 04/27/11 thread is a valuable archive is because people posted the "pretty colors" as a reference for the potential ceiling of the event. I don't see the issue of documenting such things as the forecast for this event evolves. It makes this thread a useful tool for retrospection and comparison both during and after the event.
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bwalk said:
Thanks, XJownage. The issue to me is censorship in a public forum. Do we need to choose a committee to analyze each system and decide what information is relevant and what is not for that particular system and then only allow committee-deemed relevant information to be posted?

I just posted info about the hodos for tomorrow's system. Now I feel like I have done something "wrong" in doing so.
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Posting it a few times is a documentation, yes, but we also get that there is a very high ceiling to the event in the first few posts. I only have an issue with the pretty color maps without context to it as it doesn't mean much without proper convective mode. Hodos and soundings obviously provide a better context to the situation and nowhere did I say we shouldn't post those.
 
I like using composites like STP to pick out possible issues looking at long run models then switch to upper air and thermo as it gets closer, definitely has value though again it doesn't take enough into account some factors that could lead to the parameters being unused (storm mode, capping, etc)

Whether or not the event busts is irrelevant right now, what's essential is that the whole region PREPARE for a worst case scenario just in case as there's a very high ceiling. Not fully convinced yet myself that we see a maximum potential outbreak until D1 arrives, but I'm certainly getting the generator ready and taking valuables to the basement just in case.
 
Equus said:
I like using composites like STP to pick out possible issues looking at long run models then switch to upper air and thermo as it gets closer, definitely has value though again it doesn't take enough into account some factors that could lead to the parameters being unused (storm mode, capping, etc)
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That last part of the sentence is my exact point, thank you.
 
bwalk said:
Thanks, XJownage. The issue to me is censorship in a public forum. Do we need to choose a committee to analyze each system and decide what information is relevant and what is not for that particular system and then only allow committee-deemed relevant information to be posted?

I just posted info about the hodos for tomorrow's system. Now I feel like I have done something "wrong" in doing so.
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I wasn't agreeing about you "not being allowed to post it", that's just silly. This is a weather forum in which anybody should be able to discuss anything. People who are newer or lurking should be allowed to ask questions if need be as well. It's important we balance quality discussion with the ability to let people post what they want and help them learn. In this case, there's nothing wrong with you posting it, although added context is always nice when it comes to posts like that and you did so. The people responding, like @MattMets, have every right to respond and point out that the STP alone doesn't tell a very thorough story.

Long story short, both of you are right.
 
I don't see any value in calling Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency until the event is nearly over (nor do I see value in hyperbole, BUT at least that gets the word out that the potential is pretty high) but discourse is what forums are for I guess.

Advection might be an issue in Tennessee northward, but I fully expect volatile temps/dews at least this far north tomorrow regardless of current cool conditions. We only have to look back to January 11th to see just how incredibly rapid advection can be with these super dynamic systems.
 
Equus said:
I don't see any value in calling Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency until the event is nearly over (nor do I see value in hyperbole, BUT at least that gets the word out that the potential is pretty high) but discourse is what forums are for I guess.

Advection might be an issue in Tennessee northward, but I fully expect volatile temps/dews at least this far north tomorrow regardless of current cool conditions. We only have to look back to January 11th to see just how incredibly rapid advection can be with these super dynamic systems.
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Or a little more recently in February where a large convective mass was along the coast, but with strong low level flow, instability was quick to recover behind and we had a few nocturnal tors in Central Alabama...one being deadly. That February event pales in comparison to tomorrow.

many people were quick to write that one off...even BMX cancelled the tornado watch before supercells went haywire coming out of Mississippi.
 
Yep airmass recovery just isn't as much of an issue in the Gulf states so close to the moisture feed as it is in the midwest or Ohio valley. Can happen alarmingly quickly usually faster than modeled
 
I think the most important thing is that people be prepared for a bad day regardless of if a wrench is thrown into the setup and tones it down.This is the last kind of setup that anyone could have asked for in the middle of a pandemic. If it ends up being a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, that would be a good thing.
 
andyhb said:
Some people really need to stop calling absolutes over a day out for a day that is going to be heavily dependent on the mesoscale. Saying either a tornado outbreak or a big Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency is coming is ignoring the fact it could easily be a combination of both.
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The best advice I have heard yet. We all know it is possible for both or something in between. The main thing is people are aware and we all do our best to monitor and be ready if things turn out badly.
 
Casie said:
Cory Ecton has a great shot on the live feed in Texas if anyone is interested!
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www.pscp.tv

Jeff Piotrowski

The latest broadcasts from Jeff Piotrowski (@Jeff_Piotrowski). Emmy Award-Winning Storm Chaser over 45 years.4K Extreme Weather Stock. Tesla-Cybertruck https://t.co/PGwz0k2Ojz Sales-Radar & Weather Displays & TEDx Speaker
www.pscp.tv www.pscp.tv
Link for those of you who don't have it.
 
xJownage said:
www.pscp.tv

Jeff Piotrowski

The latest broadcasts from Jeff Piotrowski (@Jeff_Piotrowski). Emmy Award-Winning Storm Chaser over 45 years.4K Extreme Weather Stock. Tesla-Cybertruck https://t.co/PGwz0k2Ojz Sales-Radar & Weather Displays & TEDx Speaker
www.pscp.tv www.pscp.tv
Link for those of you who don't have it.
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Sorry, I meant to put it in my post. www.livestormchasing.com is the one I'm watching. Brandon Clement also has a great shot.
 
andyhb said:
Some people really need to stop calling absolutes over a day out for a day that is going to be heavily dependent on the mesoscale. Saying either a tornado outbreak or a big Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency is coming is ignoring the fact it could easily be a combination of both.
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Totally 100% agree. People claiming it's going to be a historic tornado outbreak and people calling Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency need to stop. Like you said, this will be very mesoscale. Need to see where the warm front is in morning, possible outflow boundaries, how this initial wave impacts warm sector. BMX afd really highlighted this well. Significant shear is there no matter what. Storm mode imo will probably be a mixed mode. Instability shouldn't be hard to achieve as long as a substantial cold pool doesn't develop and persistent convection doesn't fester in the warm sector
 
Well IMO the way to look at this is you have the dynamics that normally occur with the "Winter Events" coupled with typical Spring instability factors. So if we can get significant tornado events in Jan-Feb, with "High Sheer/ Low Cape" this should be a basic "no brainer" so to speak.
 
Gawxnative said:
Well IMO the way to look at this is you have the dynamics that normally occur with the "Winter Events" coupled with typical Spring instability factors. So if we can get significant tornado events in Jan-Feb, with "High Sheer/ Low Cape" this should be a basic "no brainer" so to speak.
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Casie said:
Cory Ecton has a great shot on the live feed in Texas if anyone is interested!
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Temperature 73° dewpoint 72° mostly cloudy with sky trying to break in patches. It is crazy the way the air mass changed in a matter of about 12 hours. We’re gonna have a long night.
 
Tomorrow morning is now getting within the range of the normal 18 hour HRRR. Has surfaced based storms coming out of Texas and into Northern LA by 10am with a destabilizing atmosphere ahead of the complex across MS and AL.
 
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