Austin Dawg
Member
To me personally, saying things about 4-27-11 just reminds people that a huge outbreak can happen. We had forgot what something like that was since the previous was in 1974.
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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
To me personally, saying things about 4-27-11 just reminds people that a huge outbreak can happen. We had forgot what something like that was since the previous was in 1974.
darkskys25
Member
Honestly the reflectivity looks "messy" to me. Interesting to see how this evolves.
Kory
Member
Given the incoming EML and deep layer shear, i don’t think we’re going to look that “messy.” It should favor spaced convection and limit junk.
Kory
Member
Would be nice if he could give some evidence. I see a lot of tweeting about this event, but little good evidence to back things up.
skelly
Member
How does he know that any model has failed already....
that and the misspelling of the word "Due" causes me to really question their knowledge.
The closed low in southern California is now beginning to move.
Kory
Member
Welcome to twitter where 80% of opinions come from the rectum.
Kory
Member
On that note, I check the 12z and 18z HRRR runs from yesterday. Looks pretty accurate to current radar obs.
It’s the 3KM NAM that whiffed on today’s convection. Go figure.
NorthGaWeather
Member
Tony Lyza, Alan Gerard, and a few others have thrown out 3/21/32 as a better synoptic analog than 4/27/11. I’m just now diving into the CAMs and analogs.
The Eastern Seaboard Sunday overnight and Monday has continually looked quite problematic on the NAM guidance. Extreme shear profiles and enough instability for any QLCS or broken line to utilize them.
Kory
Member
I think that’s another good one. Broad based trough that was open (not occluded) and a bit lower latitude like this one. Produced 10 F4s I believe.
warneagle
Member
Yeah I'm not looking forward to Monday morning. We already had one small high shear/low CAPE tornado event up here that produced a few small tornadoes in Maryland in February.
Kory
Member
MDT expanded more into AL.
warneagle
Member
Fifth-most violent tornadoes of any outbreak on record, only behind the March 1952 Outbreak, Palm Sunday 1965, and the Super Outbreaks.
warneagle
Member
Not to be too silly at a serious moment, but in light of our earlier discussion...
The new Day 2 Outlook also increased the damaging wind probs to 45% (non-hatched):
Gawxnative
Member
I think we can all agree, that this is the most serious SE Outbreak setup SINCE 04/27.. and just leave it at that. The Meso features are what will influence this for most areas. Although I do think the OLCS/dry line will be worse than the 4/27 evening one was.