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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

Richardjacks said:
The soundings already look more capped to me
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Yep...I smell sun breaks and a warm sector that surges inland.

cloudcover.png
 
I think I just discovered something..there appears to be a weak trough running ahead of the warm front...this is causing rain in advance of the warm on the hrrr....with rain-cooled dry air in north Alabama, the warm front struggles to push northward as fast...say between Cullman and Huntsville...I think it does keep going north, but a much slower pace....everything south of the warm front looks capped with instability quickly building...this would explain why there is a difference in where the warm front ends up by early afternoon.
 
sak said:
I don't disagree with the overall message, or that he isn't sounding the alarm. But he is specifically saying that it won't be like April 27th because those things happen "once every 40 years" and what I'm saying is that is wrong and a dangerous way of thinking.
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Specifically he said if the tornado hits you then that’s your bad day. You don’t need a 4/27/11 analogy in order to be concerned and if your quick to call comparisons that’s all the more dangerous, like all the hype facebooker, tweeters and blog gist he mentions...

Would you want the BMX to say today that this is looking like 4/27/11. That would be irresponsible. It’s a dangerous situation on its on and has to be treated as such.
 
Kory said:
Yeah, I'm not big on it, but as humans, we like to have past experiences to give an idea of what to expect. Prior to 4/27, we didn't know what the ceiling was to an event. Now, we have one and it's easy to throw out in discussions.
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And after the blizzard of 93 people did the same. Its annoying but eventually it will fade.
 
Richardjacks said:
I think I just discovered something..there appears to be a weak trough running ahead of the warm front...this is causing rain in advance of the warm on the hrrr....with rain-cooled dry air in north Alabama, the warm front struggles to push northward as fast...say between Cullman and Huntsville...I think it does keep going north, but a much slower pace....everything south of the warm front looks capped with instability quickly building...this would explain why there is a difference in where the warm front ends up by early afternoon.
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Yeah, it's a volatile warm sector on the HRRR. MCS running over Northern MS/AL midday with a nasty thermal boundary where supercells are firing off over MS by early afternoon.
 
HRRR looks just like the other WRF CAMs. Nasty MCS with widespread wind damage over North MS/North AL/Southern TN and a violatile tornadic atmosphere over the Southern 2/3rds of MS and AL.
 
skelly said:
Specifically he said if the tornado hits you then that’s your bad day. You don’t need a 4/27/11 analogy in order to be concerned and if your quick to call comparisons that’s all the more dangerous, like all the hype facebooker, tweeters and blog gist he mentions...

Would you want the BMX to say today that this is looking like 4/27/11. That would be irresponsible. It’s a dangerous situation on its on and has to be treated as such.
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Multiple things can be true at the same time. I agree he is sounding the alarm. And I also agree that a high false alarm rate is one of the main reasons people die in events like these (which is part of the reason why I've shuddered for the last decade when county based NOAA weather radios got recommended over polygon based solutions, but that's a different issue altogether).

My issue is specifically that the idea these happen "once every 40 years" is just flat out wrong. Bad logic. Not science. Incorrect reasoning. Whatever term you want to use. The fact the last "once every 40 year event" was just 9 years ago has zero bearing on the likelihood of tomorrow being just as bad. The only thing that matters is the physics of the atmosphere. Now perhaps the ingredients aren't quite as perfectly aligned as 4/27/2011. That is fair point to make. But what I'm saying is that the comparisons actually may be valid, particularly for Mississippi. Like the STP map I posted from the NAM... I don't know maybe that was funky data, but I know a swath of 9-12 STPs covering that broad of an area actually is similar to 4/27/11. Maybe even worse to be quite honest. But maybe that data is funky because some other products are merely bullish as opposed to off the charts bullish.
 
I'm seeing where some places in Alabama are not going to have public shelters open tomorrow because of the virus. If tomorrow pans out like we're afraid it will, we need to prepare ourselves for a high fatality rate. :(
 
skelly said:
Specifically he said if the tornado hits you then that’s your bad day. You don’t need a 4/27/11 analogy in order to be concerned and if your quick to call comparisons that’s all the more dangerous, like all the hype facebooker, tweeters and blog gist he mentions...

Would you want the BMX to say today that this is looking like 4/27/11. That would be irresponsible. It’s a dangerous situation on its on and has to be treated as such.
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Well as FYI ..MRX in their AFD "
avorable jet coupling aloft, this event has the potential to pose
the most significant tornado threat we have had since April 27,
2011 "
 
MichelleH said:
I'm seeing where some places in Alabama are not going to have public shelters open tomorrow because of the virus. If tomorrow pans out like we're afraid it will, we need to prepare ourselves for a high fatality rate. :(
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I can remember back good ole days when I was boy in the 70s me and my parents and brother load up and go hang out at local hospital basement area. The city wouldn’t care as long a severe outbreak was about to unfold
 
QUOTE: Multiple things can be true at the same time. I agree he is sounding the alarm. And I also agree that a high false alarm rate is one of the main reasons people die in events like these (which is part of the reason why I've shuddered for the last decade when county based NOAA weather radios got recommended over polygon based solutions, but that's a different issue altogether).

My issue is specifically that the idea these happen "once every 40 years" is just flat out wrong. Bad logic. Not science. Incorrect reasoning. Whatever term you want to use. The fact the last "once every 40 year event" was just 9 years ago has zero bearing on the likelihood of tomorrow being just as bad. The only thing that matters is the physics of the atmosphere. Now perhaps the ingredients aren't quite as perfectly aligned as 4/27/2011. That is fair point to make. But what I'm saying is that the comparisons actually may be valid, particularly for Mississippi. Like the STP map I posted from the NAM... I don't know maybe that was funky data, but I know a swath of 9-12 STPs covering that broad of an area actually is similar to 4/27/11. Maybe even worse to be quite honest. But maybe that data is funky because some other products are merely bullish as opposed to off the charts bullish.
[/QUOTE]
Im not sure where you are seeing such extreme values. 4/27 was the definition of extreme over a very large area. There was a lot of model consistency. Now for Sunday im not seeing 9+ stps over a wide area. If you want to look at the Hrrr it keeps everything stunted south and stps in the 4 to 6 range. Now thats just 1 model but i think there are enough question marks amongst the models to say this isnt going to be 4/27 and we dont have the apocalyptic numbers to support such an extreme solution.
 
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STP of 6 or STP if 10...what I’m seeing over parts of MS and AL tomorrow are nasty along rain cooled boundaries established from the midday convection. They provide convergence for supercells to go up. And fast.
 
I think 4/27 has really skewed the idea of what a high end event here is; an event with a fourth of the violent tornadoes that day is still an extremely high end outbreak for this region... here's hoping tomorrow isn't comparable at all with those numbers
 
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