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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

Love how on the BMX homepage there's the strong tornadoes/MDT graphic right above the CWA map that shows frost advisories. This gonna be some big time advection
 
Brice said:
Same I woke up 8:00 in the morning just to turn on TWC and that's not normal for me.
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Also download the free weathernation tv app they do free streaming and are better then TWC. Less hype

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk
 
I saw a junior meterologist on Twitter release a video breaking down tomorrow’s forecast for Texas. Not sure what to make of it...



He has a full video linked in the Tweet.

I’m not sure if I should take it with a grain of salt or not...this is the first time I’ve heard of the warm sector coming all the way to DFW. Earlier in the week I’d thought the warm sector would be somewhat limited to central Texas. also earlier in the week it looked like a pretty solid chance there would be rain a good portion of the day that would limit daytime heating. Now there’s some debate about the coverage of storms.

NGL, It gives me some 10/20 vibes—that was a very conditional forecast and everything that went wrong did. Other models are showing marginally severe threats while you have this guy and HRRR screaming “big nadoes” for the cells that get going.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I will say this, as a weather geek, I have in a sense been guilty of "rooting for" violent weather like tornado outbreaks and hurricanes to reach their ceiling, not that I'm wishing death and destruction on people, but because I like to be amazed by what the atmosphere can do, and I know that I have no control over it one way or the other.

That said, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has significantly tempered my enthusiasm. I didn't chase the March 28th event just south of my backyard so as not to fly in the face of stay-at-home orders in both Wisconsin and Illinois (although the morning convection made that a less agonizing decision). Just the thought of the logistics of trying to shelter from tornadoes and dealing with the aftermath; with first responders and hospitals already overtaxed, is heartbreaking.

Tornadoes at least come, you take cover, they pass. There's not a siren that goes off, an alert on your phone, and a TV cut-in that warns you when you're within six feet of someone with the coronavirus.
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I was guilty of the same thing until 4-27-11. Now I'm just hoping to be able to warn someone I know. I wish I had a better way to keep up with the chasers in the field in real-time. One thing 4-27-11 did was to make people more aware and forecasters more important and open to talk about things in advance even if it doesn't materialize.
 
It's a tough thing to balance, too high end an event and dozens die but too low end an event and and the public gets desensitized alarmingly fast for the next big event. It's amazing how quickly some people forget our big events when even one higher end event fails to create scenes of suffering and destruction.
 
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D2 extends enhanced into S KY, remains Moderate. 10 hatch TOR from Houston to Atlanta. Discussion mentions an upgrade but that uncertainty remains with whatever ongoing elevated convection is in the warm sector in regards to its potential to either temper the northward extent of the threat or become surface based with all hazards.
 
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