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Severe WX April 11-14th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

Got on the Iowa storm of the day but missed the Gilmore City tornado by waiting at/on IA-3 just east of Humboldt for the storm to come to me (not wanting to get behind by having to go back through town due to anticipated fast storm speeds, and not wanting to tangle with the forward flank core due to high potential for large hail). If only it had had an additional classic tornado cycle or two during daylight, I would have been in great position for those, but alas. Still a fun (if exhausting, 12 hours straight on the roads after working 3AM-noon Tuesday) chase. It got a little hairy as I raced up I-35 to US-18 east at Mason City with the forward flank core encroaching on the highway to my north and the "business end" of the supercell (with recently reported tornado north of Belmond/west of Thornton) to my west. I got a lightning-lit glimpse of what appeared to be a large wall cloud with "beaver tail" extending toward the forward flank core.

I took 18 all the way home, with the supercell an increasing distance (10s of miles) to my northwest based on radar, but there still seemed to be lightning all around me. The Riceville tornado apparently occurred just after I got out of Charles City radio range, and by the time I got home shortly after 12:30 AM, the supercell was gone and all warnings on the MCS dropped.
 
JBishopwx said:
View attachment 13454
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* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes
possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Warm sector thunderstorm development will continue to
increase through the afternoon/evening from Louisiana into
Mississippi, in advance of a cold front approaching the Sabine
River. The storm environment favors a mix of clusters and
supercells, with attendant threats for a couple of strong tornadoes,
damaging winds, and large hail through late evening.
 
Last couple of HRRR runs have been trending a little more discrete-ish, specifically in MS. I think the best shot at strong tors will be with these, if any. QLCS Tors seem like the story for West TN and northward
1649880315818.png
 
MattPetrulli said:
Last couple of HRRR runs have been trending a little more discrete-ish, specifically in MS. I think the best shot at strong tors will be with these, if any. QLCS Tors seem like the story for West TN and northward
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I've been noticing this too, and it's evident in the convection that's already formed in LA.

Previous HRRR runs had this convection in N LA as already linear in nature. At this moment it's semi-discrete, even if not organized due to rather meager forcing in the region. These storms have around 3000 Cape and 200 0-1 SRH, with 50 kts of bulk shear, to work with at the moment. I can only imagine these storms intensifying over the next few hours, and should they maintain their current mode, semi-discrete would be back on the table.
 
Kim30 said:
What are the chances of the Enhanced and/or Moderate risk areas shifting eastward into more of N AL with time? If so, what areas?
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The SPC has already done the afternoon update, and it doesn't get another update (which will be the final one for the event) until around 8:00 PM. The outlook areas very likely will not move from where they are. I honestly feel like we could get by with the Enhanced Risk over northwest Alabama and middle Tennessee being downgraded to Slight, but I understand why they are holding it in place. But this is not evolving in a way that looks like it will be a substantial threat in our area.
 
TOR warnings starting to fire for this system as it crosses the River & into far West Tenn. I also notice several discrete cells forming out ahead of main line. Don't know if they can get going.

1649881688975.png
 
Salado Texas tornado rated EF3/165mph


Definitely seemed like a violent contender from some photos I have seen. I presume still preliminary so we will see if any upgrades happen.
 
Both of the Severe Warned cells NW of Jackson MS are showing signs of broad rotation with the southern cell looking like it’s tightening up as the begin to enter the Mississippi radar hole.
 
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