Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[Maxis_s]

Arkansas has re entered..

The tornado warned storm is a left split too. Very weird.

 

[ColdFront]

The Ripley cell around Memphis about to get its inflow overtaken by that storm to its south

 

[andyhb]

LCLs are definitely causing issues for the open warm sector stuff. Didn't think there was any chance of reaching 90 near Memphis today, but it turns out the HRRR was right. Really need those to come down a bit or this might be done tornado wise.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I don’t want to be that guy, but the area around KNQA in Memphis and to the south is getting increasingly cramped by additional convection. You have to wonder if those storms will merge and line out before any of them even sniff the favorable lower LCLs up north

View attachment 38514

Doubt that

 

[ColdFront]

Doubt that

Yeah, no. Unless these LCLs come down this thing won’t even come close to verifying. You’re seeing some temps at almost 90

 

[Maxis_s]

Quite possibly the most streamwise hodograph I have seen on mesoanalysis, around Tupelo, MS.

 

[Bama Ravens]

The two storms north of Memphis don’t look impressive on velocity at this point. Hopefully it stays that way.

 

[Muwx]

Doubt that

Based on what? These storms have serious issues that will likely keep them from dropping significant tornadoes, at least in the sort term.

 

[akt1985]

The tornado warned storm is a left split too. Very weird.

I think Ryan Hall said that cell is anti-cyclonic.

 

[tornado examiner]

LCLs are definitely causing issues for the open warm sector stuff. Didn't think there was any chance of reaching 90 near Memphis today, but it turns out the HRRR was right. Really need those to come down a bit or this might be done tornado wise.

Exactly what I wanted to say but when I do everyone gets all uppity.

Odd

 

[ColdFront]

Exactly what I wanted to say but when I do everyone gets all uppity.

Odd

Probably because you have a history of calling bu$ts right when a tornado has a debris signature on it

 

[Maxis_s]

I think Ryan Hall said that cell is anti-cyclonic.

That would make sense.

The hodograph on that storm via mesoanalysis definitely shows that SRH are in the negatives, which I believe favors anticyclonic tornadoes? Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[Kds86z]

Exactly what I wanted to say but when I do everyone gets all uppity.

Odd

Well, maybe this evening but I don’t know how long things will be discrete

 

[akt1985]

The Shoals in northwest Alabama might have to watch out for baseball size hail.

 

[TornadoFan]

Exactly what I wanted to say but when I do everyone gets all uppity.

Odd

Nobody was getting uppity.

 

[SmokeEater]

Exactly what I wanted to say but when I do everyone gets all uppity.

Odd

Dude you said just last night is the next Chapman tornado about to happen, come on, lol.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[MMWX]

Exactly what I wanted to say but when I do everyone gets all uppity.

Odd

No need for the victim's complex.

 

[Clancy]

LCLs and SRH at the lowest levels that isn't quite as strong as you might like to see are, together, probably contributing to the limited tornadogenesis of these storms at the moment, which is really good news because, well:


Hoping this trend doesn't change.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

I don’t want to be that guy, but the area around KNQA in Memphis and to the south is getting increasingly cramped by additional convection. You have to wonder if those storms will merge and line out before any of them even sniff the favorable lower LCLs up north

View attachment 38514

I actually think it looks a little cleaner off NQA. Some of the cells that are weaker are dying or being absorbed by stronger updrafts. But this could change. LCLs are 1000-1250m which isn't sky high, but isn't as ideal. And we have a confirmed TOR in that environment near Mercer, TN now. VWP from NQA has good low level shear/SRH for ingestion.