If this setup was more consistent in showing OWS development or confluence bands, then a high risk w/ a 45% contour would have absolutely been warranted. I’m just really, really skeptical on mode still, despite the cap that has established itself.
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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event
- Thread starter Bulkshear
- Start date
Kds86z
Member
Couldn’t have said it better myself. Yes, the parameters are sky high over multiple geographical areas. But Storm Mode is king, and if Storm mode doesn’t cooperate and you have constant, destructive mergers in a cluttered mode, then those parameters can go to waste.
Most models are in consensus and have been hammering the more linear threat with very meager OWS development. We are in nowcast mode though so we will see how this one goes. I’m not an expert
joshoctober16
Member
4-6 km SR winds are under 6 kt , meaning horrible venting.
joshoctober16
Member
this looks like a very high end Historic sounding to me.
Very likely EF2-EF3 from something like this.
VTP is at 31.4
RRFS and FV3 show a similar output, although they are also typical supercell printer models.
Treys new video
Kds86z
Member
My buddy is ok. Works in owasso, lives in Claremore.
This is in Southern Illinois, BTW.
Now you guys don't have to google the coordinates
TornadoFan
Member
Also from the AFD:View attachment 38408
From the LZK AFD earlier this morning.
National Weather Service
forecast.weather.gov
Today has the necessary ingredients in place to be a
memorable day severe weather outbreak wise which is quite the
declarative statement given the history of severe weather in
Arkansas. It is an absolute must that you remain vigilant today to
quickly changing weather conditions and have a severe weather action
plan in place and the means to activate that plan in a matter of
minutes to protect life.
He’s Just as puzzled as we are lol
joshoctober16
Member
a more extreme sounding with a VTP of 64.2
EHI3 at 10.7
likely Historic outbreak from something like this
might be a bit too wet however overall very good sounding.
If there’s a discrete supercell there to take advantage of it then yes.
Kds86z
Member
This is southcentral Arkansas.
Please provide locations for your soundings. We're dealing with a very broad area today.
