Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[slenker]

If this setup was more consistent in showing OWS development or confluence bands, then a high risk w/ a 45% contour would have absolutely been warranted. I’m just really, really skeptical on mode still, despite the cap that has established itself.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[ColdFront]

If this setup was more consistent in showing OWS development or confluence bands, then a high risk w/ a 45% contour would have absolutely been warranted. I’m just really, really skeptical on mode still, despite the cap that has established itself.

Couldn’t have said it better myself. Yes, the parameters are sky high over multiple geographical areas. But Storm Mode is king, and if Storm mode doesn’t cooperate and you have constant, destructive mergers in a cluttered mode, then those parameters can go to waste.

Most models are in consensus and have been hammering the more linear threat with very meager OWS development. We are in nowcast mode though so we will see how this one goes. I’m not an expert

 

[joshoctober16]

View attachment 38403
Nothing to see here…. sounding from middle TN.

4-6 km SR winds are under 6 kt , meaning horrible venting.

 

[joshoctober16]

this looks like a very high end Historic sounding to me.

Very likely EF2-EF3 from something like this.

VTP is at 31.4

 

[Maxis_s]

I just cant get over the 12z HRRR solution in Arkansas tommorow.
View attachment 38405

RRFS and FV3 show a similar output, although they are also typical supercell printer models.

 

[172556]

Just an observation for my location near central KY, going back through CAMS - current temp and dewpoint are 5 degrees or more lower than model forecast across the board.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Treys new video

 

[Kds86z]

My buddy is ok. Works in owasso, lives in Claremore.

 

[Mrklem10]

Sun peaking through heavy cloud cover in SE Arkansas. Very soupy but you can feel the wind energy already

 

[treypops]

View attachment 38406
this looks like a very high end Historic sounding to me.

Very likely EF2-EF3 from something like this.

VTP is at 31.4

This is in Southern Illinois, BTW.

Now you guys don't have to google the coordinates

 

[Maxis_s]

From the LZK AFD earlier this morning.

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov

 

[TornadoFan]

View attachment 38408
From the LZK AFD earlier this morning.

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov

Also from the AFD:

Today has the necessary ingredients in place to be a
memorable day severe weather outbreak wise which is quite the
declarative statement given the history of severe weather in
Arkansas. It is an absolute must that you remain vigilant today to
quickly changing weather conditions and have a severe weather action
plan in place and the means to activate that plan in a matter of
minutes to protect life.

 

[ColdFront]

Treys new video

He’s Just as puzzled as we are lol

 

[joshoctober16]

a more extreme sounding with a VTP of 64.2

EHI3 at 10.7

likely Historic outbreak from something like this

might be a bit too wet however overall very good sounding.

 

[ColdFront]

View attachment 38409
a more extreme sounding with a VTP of 64.2

EHI3 at 10.7

likely Historic outbreak from something like this

might be a bit too wet however overall very good sounding.

If there’s a discrete supercell there to take advantage of it then yes.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Maxis_s]

Much less convection being observed than what the HRRR was forecasting right now. Not a good look.

 

[treypops]

View attachment 38409
a more extreme sounding with a VTP of 64.2

EHI3 at 10.7

likely Historic outbreak from something like this

might be a bit too wet however overall very good sounding.

This is southcentral Arkansas.

Please provide locations for your soundings. We're dealing with a very broad area today.

 

[Maxis_s]

Northern mode could be interesting in Indiana if HRRR is to be trusted...