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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

Some filtered heating looks to be occurring over the high risk area based on the COD satellite loop. While it will be a while (if ever) we see any clearing further north, the morning storms are flying along and remain rather scattered. The HRRR runs portraying a huge washout definitely appear to have been out to lunch.

If we get any heating it will probably have to come from that dry punch working through NW MO into southern IA at the moment.
 
I've basically had to do a compromise for North MS on today's threat. It's got me a little confused as how to message the threat and timing.
 
Maxis_s said:
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I really don't want to take away attention from today, but tomorrow is looking really bad too. I wouldn't be surprised to see a D1 MDT for southern/central AR.
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Eddie Murphy What GIF by Laff
 
Today makes this the first year since 2021 (and before that, the first since 2017) with more than one high risk day.

In the 1990s and 2000s under the three-tier system it seemed about 4-5 per year was average, except in really quiet severe years. 2010-2011 were both quite active and featured 6 and 5 respectively, then the number dropped off precipitously.
 
JPWX said:
I've basically had to do a compromise for North MS on today's threat. It's got me a little confused as how to message the threat and timing.
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My question is isn’t there a real risk of storms firing in front of the line given the weak cap? I mean if that happens this could be a real mess. I feel like the sharp cutoff in risk area is questionable. What is your thoughts
 
Bulkshear said:
View attachment 38395
The newest HRRR is showing storms firing out in front of the line and way past their main risk areas. There are even hints at this in other states!
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The HRRR is the main reason why I'm concerned for North MS as far as supercells and reason why SPC has extended the highest risk further east. I do feel that the Enhanced Risk gets expanded more into North Alabama
 
kcyalater said:
it’s more about ceiling than question marks. you’re always going to have mesoscale details that can be a fly in the ointment, but it doesn’t matter whether that’s 5 or 15 variables on the table.

if the event has catastrophic potential, the categorical risk must convey that.

likelihood is secondary.
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I disagree. If the SPC issued categorical risks based on ceiling alone, the general
public would have stopped listening to them years ago. I'd argue the floor is more important than the ceiling is for these MDT/HIGH risks.

In my opinion, you cannot issue a HIGH risk and then is doesn't verify. It has to verify for people to take the next one seriously.

So far I'm questioning it, but I'm not an expert.
 
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