-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event
- Thread starter Bulkshear
- Start date
tornado examiner
Member
- Messages
- 2,226
- Location
- texas
Casual California tornado warning, no big deal
UpperLevelLOL
Member
- Messages
- 361
- Location
- Edmond, OK
I believe we’re at the portion of this event where obs begin to be a greater value than models
NorthGaWeather
Member
- Messages
- 627
- Location
- Canton, GA
In Slack, OUN posted a pic of the balloon data that is in so far (mainly 400mb down) and it is a loaded gun. Definite capping over C OK for now. They state the hodo is impressive and that SW OK is really close to initiation. Those updrafts/light returns on FDR/TLX are trying.
Tanner
Member
- Messages
- 770
- Location
- Granville, MA
Don’t look at models this close to an event, look at SPC’s mesoanalysis page. Real time is what matters this close to an event.
Shakespeare 2016
Member
- Messages
- 1,473
- Location
- Augusta, Kansas
Beauguard 2019!!
Muwx
Member
- Messages
- 454
- Location
- Republic Mo
First attempts at CI are really struggling, but the dryline is really starting to sharpen in western OK. I would sure think we are close to go time.
tennessee storm chaser
Member
Not liking the look of the latest hrrr last couple runs for the mid south tomorrow evening
TornadoFan
Member
- Messages
- 5,237
- Location
- Colorado
Pretty stout cap on the OUN sounding.
cincywx
Member
It’s going to need to erode soon to maximize parameter space.
Shakespeare 2016
Member
- Messages
- 1,473
- Location
- Augusta, Kansas
The Joplin 2011 EF5 tornado came out of a 10% hatched area though it was a Moderate Risk day. There have been numerous occasions of violent tornadoes coming out of 10% hatched days. June 17, 2010 where 4 EF4 tornadoes came out of a 10% hatched area although it was also a Moderate Risk day. I think the Moderate Risk day on June 17, 2010 was for winds.
NorthGaWeather
Member
- Messages
- 627
- Location
- Canton, GA
The low levels of the OUN hodo are legit. A mature updraft that is rooted to the sfc has plenty to take advantage of.
CheeselandSkies
Member
- Messages
- 3,841
- Location
- Madison, WI
IIRC the term "loaded gun" refers to the thermodynamic profile, not kinematics. It describes potentially strong instability that's capped.
SmokeEater
Member
- Messages
- 901
- Location
- Folsom, NJ
Tornado watch coming shortly.
Bingo. Also in relation to the Skew T
CheeselandSkies
Member
- Messages
- 3,841
- Location
- Madison, WI
In other news, 18Z 3K NAM is a significant development for the Midwest portion of tomorrow's threat. It brings a 984 MB low into southwest Wisconsin tomorrow late afternoon (remember earlier runs of GFS and NAM that had me skeptical had it flying off straight north through Minnesota around 18Z). Sim reflectivity depicts several potential supercells developing through a high-end parameter space. However it's really annoying when there's still so much variability between models this close to an event.
Had some life-related things to take care of after work this afternoon so haven't had time to catch up on developments with this threat until now.
Had some life-related things to take care of after work this afternoon so haven't had time to catch up on developments with this threat until now.
US_Highway15
Member
- Messages
- 635
- Location
- Michiana (IWX)
SCP just pickd up to 14.
