Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

Honestly surprised they didn’t issue a moderate risk in the latest update. I suspect an upgrade could come in the next update.
Gotta be confidence my dude @AJS. When you are relying on a dry line for CI ;) with not so much forcing and have a cap.

Remember May 3? Started with a slight and then high risk as storms took off and it was clear what was unfolding.
 
I'm looking at sounding data for today rather than simref and I don't see why a few supercells won't fire in OK/KS, including late at night when the STP is exceeding 10. Capping is minimal and lapse rates are sufficient. The only issue would be a lack of stronger forcing.
 
Not sure at this point, it's scaring me (which should say a lot).
If Andy is scared, you know excrements about to go down.
I'm looking at sounding data for today rather than simref and I don't see why a few supercells won't fire in OK/KS, including late at night when the STP is exceeding 10. Capping is minimal and lapse rates are sufficient. The only issue would be a lack of stronger forcing.
Yeah, the capping seems to be a bit more minimal now.
 
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