Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[Muwx]

Slight eastward expansion on the Enhanced Risk, and no upgrade this update.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I am getting very worried for my place later in NW Norman given several of the 12z CAMs specifically targeting the OKC metro with intense supercells later.

Andy, you chasing today, or doing it from the porch?

 

[Kds86z]

Slight eastward expansion on the Enhanced Risk, and no upgrade this update.

Bigger tornado hatched probs…

 

[andyhb]

Andy, you chasing today, or doing it from the porch?

Not sure at this point, it's scaring me (which should say a lot).

 

[SmokeEater]

It was said in Slack on OUNs channel.

Thanks, at work and can't answer immediately.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[ColdFront]

Trey thinks you’ll have storms go up today too.

Timing will be important and storms will need to go up just before or around sunset before the cap builds back in.

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

Last 2 runs of the HRW FV3 model. Is there a possibility of supercells popping up south of Wichita Falls. Also, most models are now in agreement of an Oklahoma severe event. Scary.

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

I actually left my house this morning (North TX) and I could feel the change.

 

[AJS]

Honestly surprised they didn’t issue a moderate risk in the latest update. I suspect an upgrade could come in the next update.

 

[Kds86z]

Trey thinks you’ll have storms go up today too.

Timing will be important and storms will need to go up just before or around sunset before the cap builds back in.

Yeah some models show as early as 4pm

 

[Kds86z]

Honestly surprised they didn’t issue a moderate risk in the latest update. I suspect an upgrade could come in the next update.

Gotta be confidence my dude @AJS. When you are relying on a dry line for CI with not so much forcing and have a cap.

Remember May 3? Started with a slight and then high risk as storms took off and it was clear what was unfolding.

 

[Maxis_s]

I'm looking at sounding data for today rather than simref and I don't see why a few supercells won't fire in OK/KS, including late at night when the STP is exceeding 10. Capping is minimal and lapse rates are sufficient. The only issue would be a lack of stronger forcing.

 

[AJS]

Not sure at this point, it's scaring me (which should say a lot).

If Andy is scared, you know excrements about to go down.

I'm looking at sounding data for today rather than simref and I don't see why a few supercells won't fire in OK/KS, including late at night when the STP is exceeding 10. Capping is minimal and lapse rates are sufficient. The only issue would be a lack of stronger forcing.

Yeah, the capping seems to be a bit more minimal now.

 

[Maxis_s]

I didn't know the RRFS was in operation again, and now I wish it was still not in operation.

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

View attachment 38162
I didn't know the RRFS was in operation again, and now I wish it was still not in operation.

RRFS seems to have been overdoing it. Or is it that the conditions have become more favorable?

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 38163

SPC just issued. Wow they usually do these with moderate risks…

 

[lake.effect]

I didn't know the RRFS was in operation again, and now I wish it was still not in operation.

Not a reliable model for storm mode, it always does this.

 

[cincywx]

I honestly don't know if I have ever seen a Public Severe Weather Outlook for an enhanced risk before. Unusual setups bring out unusual tools, though.