Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[jiharris0220]

I’m fairly confident we will see a moderate risk issued for tomorrow.

I doubt so until more cam models start to consistently initiate convection, along with showing more convection coverage.

Probably won’t be until tomorrow afternoon if at all.

 

[AJS]

I doubt so until more cam models start to consistently initiate convection.

Probably won’t be until tomorrow afternoon if at all.

That I agree with. What’s the general time frame the storms should be kicking off tomorrow at?

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

I’m fairly confident we will see a moderate risk issued for tomorrow.

agreed..... spc alr stated that more than 1 outlook upgrades could be needed and well, models hath chosen death, we will 100% need obs....I really wonder what spc meso says for tmr when that time comes

 

[jiharris0220]

That I agree with. What’s the general time frame the storms should be kicking off tomorrow at?

Models like the FV3 which like to mix out the EML and has an updraft size bias initiates as early as 5:00pm tomorrow.

And then you have the NAM which has a stout cap and has nada.

 

[jiharris0220]

Here’s what I mean btw. Gotta love the CAMs and their respective biases.

 

[ColdFront]

Here’s what I mean btw. Gotta love the CAMs and their respective biases.
View attachment 38052View attachment 38053

That cap legit made me laugh out loud

 

[AJS]

Here’s what I mean btw. Gotta love the CAMs and their respective biases.
View attachment 38052View attachment 38053

Since i’m still relatively amateur, is this sounding bad?

 

[tornado examiner]

HRRR time soon for wednesday. Will it print an outbreak again or will it complicate things further?

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

cyclogenesis alr ongoing

 

[jiharris0220]

Since i’m still relatively amateur, is this sounding bad?

What you’re seeing here are two different soundings.

The one on the right is the FV3, and the left side is the high resolution (3kmNAM).

The FV3 shows a nicely mixed PBL (likely means that radiative heating caused enough warm moist air to rise) which eroded the CAP and therefore intitiates convection, although the over mixing causes exaggerated updraft sizes which can balloon convective coverage.

Meanwhile the NAM has an over saturated PBL with no mixing to be seen, (which likely means there’s been little in the way of radiative heating/destabilization), and is CAPed all to hell. No convection can hope to trigger in that vertical profile.

When forecasting weather, its best to go with a mean. So I suspect there will be convective initiation, but coverage will be limited, but where ever supercells initiate, those will be capable of producing significant tornadoes.

 

[KCweatherboy]

I think any possible upgrades tomorrow will have to depend on surface obs in the morning and midday. The ingredients are there in OK/S KS and this looks like a pretty classic plains setup. I do think moisture will be a question further north.

 

[AJS]

What you’re seeing here are two different soundings.

The one on the right is the FV3, and the left side is the high resolution (3kmNAM).

The FV3 shows a nicely mixed PBL (likely means that radiative heating caused enough warm moist air to rise) which eroded the CAP and therefore intitiates convection, although the over mixing causes exaggerated updraft sizes which can balloon convective coverage.

Meanwhile the NAM has an over saturated PBL with no mixing to be seen, (which likely means there’s been little in the way of radiative heating/destabilization), and is CAPed all to hell. No convection can hope to trigger in that vertical profile.

When forecasting weather, its best to go with a mean. So I suspect there will be convective initiation, but coverage will be limited, but where ever supercells initiate, those will be capable of producing significant tornadoes.

Ah gotcha. That actually cleared up a lot I needed to know!

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I think any possible upgrades tomorrow will have to depend on surface obs in the morning and midday. The ingredients are there in OK/S KS and this looks like a pretty classic plains setup. I do think moisture will be a question further north.

Wednesday will go moderate for first update for day 2 in the morning or. The 1230 pm cst update tomorrow

 

[warneagle]

Since i’m still relatively amateur, is this sounding bad?

sounding #1 is classic low CAPE/high shear tornado risk (with some potential capping issues)

sounding #2 is the most capped sounding in the history of caps

 

[AJS]

Max Velocity’s latest video explained how there is a lot of capping in place that could limit a lot of storm activity tomorrow.

 

[Mrgolfman7070]

Here’s what I mean btw. Gotta love the CAMs and their respective biases.
View attachment 38052View attachment 38053

Which model handles svr weather the best overall?

 

[AJS]

Gonna be interesting to see what the HRRR shows for Wednesday.

 

[ColdFront]

Which model handles svr weather the best overall?

Each model has its pros and cons and biases. You also use different models for different scales. No sense in using the HRRR if I’m trying to look at a synoptic setup.

I will say, so far this season, the HRRR has been nailing set ups convective mode and placement wise

 

[jiharris0220]

Which model handles svr weather the best overall?

There’s no particular single model which is the best overall unfortunately. The hrrr updates hourly so one would think it would have the upper hand, but that’s not the case at all.

In reality every model has its own biases and it’s best to go with a blend to knock out them out.

Meteorologists always use a blend of all available models at their disposal, and most times out of ten their forecast verify.

 

[TornadoFan]

sounding #1 is classic low CAPE/high shear tornado risk (with some potential capping issues)

sounding #2 is the most capped sounding in the history of caps

No cap, fam.