Oh, perfect
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5/5-5-6 2026 severe threat
- Thread starter Justin Hindman
- Start date
kcyalater
Member
i think alabama’s jefferson county sees its first tornado warning in 5 years today.
appreciable threat with a very high ceiling and a decently low floor. if we get into the 80s and see a little more active LLS, bad bad news for a seasoned central AL crowd that hasn’t had to deal with tornadoes in a long time
appreciable threat with a very high ceiling and a decently low floor. if we get into the 80s and see a little more active LLS, bad bad news for a seasoned central AL crowd that hasn’t had to deal with tornadoes in a long time
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Pfft, what a coincidence. If I was a nutjob I'd say that mother nature is tampering with the radars!
Given relatively modest forcing, any boundaries set up by this stuff is may be a primary focus for later convective initiation.
Based on satellite imagery major clearing occuring in central Alabama. Also a boundary is pushing southeast from the current storms in northwest alabama
Sawmaster
Member
That radar is like a lazy brother-in-law: Always there during the good times but never there when you really need 'em
Ozonelayer
Member
While I have my doubts about today being an outbreak, there remains a conditional potential for a somewhat sizable corridor for several strong tornadoes and an intense tornado cannot be ruled out if a mature supercell has favorable interactions.
The main limiting factors I see have already been discussed in the form of an absent EML in an area with a very moist layer, as well as slightly lacking lower level shear. However Dixie has been shown to be able to overcome weaker shear but crapvection remains the main limiting factor for me. If you can't get a supercell that has enough space then the tornado threat is limited from what it could be.
However, satellite imagery shows a large and growing area of clearing in central AL, as well as an OFB pushing SSE. If the clearing continues into MS then further daytime heating might allow for more instability than forecast, along with the possibility of a slightly dryer layer than forecast, which of course would get rid of some crapvection and give our main cells some more breathing room.
While it might not be a great chasing day, we could see some classic Dixie HP supercells on radar and maybe an intense tornado or two (especially with the possibility of instability over performing expectations due to the growing clearing)
The main limiting factors I see have already been discussed in the form of an absent EML in an area with a very moist layer, as well as slightly lacking lower level shear. However Dixie has been shown to be able to overcome weaker shear but crapvection remains the main limiting factor for me. If you can't get a supercell that has enough space then the tornado threat is limited from what it could be.
However, satellite imagery shows a large and growing area of clearing in central AL, as well as an OFB pushing SSE. If the clearing continues into MS then further daytime heating might allow for more instability than forecast, along with the possibility of a slightly dryer layer than forecast, which of course would get rid of some crapvection and give our main cells some more breathing room.
While it might not be a great chasing day, we could see some classic Dixie HP supercells on radar and maybe an intense tornado or two (especially with the possibility of instability over performing expectations due to the growing clearing)
CheeselandSkies
Member
Another annoying high-ceiling/low floor day. Could be anything from a mediocre slopfest to a localized corridor of high-end tornado production, kind of like the Beauregard day in March 2019 or that day in mid-January 2023.
Waiting for that next trey update that will preclude a moderate corridor lol.
Also it's partly cloudy in Birmingham. Clouds clearing out quickly
Also it's partly cloudy in Birmingham. Clouds clearing out quickly
DanLarsen34
Member
Funny you brought that up because I was going to say that you literally never know for sure with Dixie events like this. Dixie alley can have a knack for sneaking up on you and producing an intense to violent tornado out of an environment like we might see later. Even on days where the lack of a cap is a major factor with marginal lapse rates and an over saturated profile, we can often see one storm go briefly nuts.
slenker
Member
I feel like the HRRR has been quite off this year when depicting higher ceiling events. While I can see the ceiling being quite solid today, I’m not sold on an outbreak at all. The mode is practically guaranteed to be messy today. I wonder why there’s no EML… Isn’t the drought out west supposed to be quite strong at this point in the season?
Central Ohio Wx
Member
I wouldn't chase anywhere in the Central MS/Central AL corridor today, especially when the mode will possibly be clustered. Tornadoes are both very fast moving in the region and the tree cover could easily be deadly when paired with the rainwrapped nature of most dixie tornadoes.
Quick forum callout: if you're new to chasing and want to chase a Dixie setup, don't even think aboout it unless it's specifically centered in North Alabama or Western Mississippi with HP supercells being off the table. And even then, still not worth the risk.
Boundary from amory Mississippi to haleyville to hartselle Alabama. Also sunshine all out across i20.
bckhd2
Member
Still mostly cloudy here in metro ATL. Very humid and sticky out. Feels like storms. We'll see.
- Moderator
- #136
Got to get to Bassfield! Lmbo
Ozonelayer
Member
It's always Bassfield, huh?
Got to get to Bassfield! Lmbo
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I do think there's a better chance for discrete cells now especially towards S MS. Storms are very likely to be precip clogged though and heavily HP. No DOUBT, mergers could be the determining factor of today.
- Moderator
- #139
Always! Tornado spam country!
CAMs maximize convective potential in the early-to-mid evening in a corridor from the Arklamiss triple-point along I-20 into far western Georgia. Combine that with clearing ongoing over parts of MS/AL/GA already at 10 AM, and it definitely smells like there could be at least some trouble somewhere in the Southeast today. I'd reckon core areas to watch out for are discrete development in southern MS - though questionable, if cells materialized there, strong tornadoes would definitely be possible - as well as in the I-20 corridor from Birmingham to west of Atlanta, where favorable mergers and boundary-riders with the QLCS could locally maximize tornado potential. Definitely a messy, mixed-mode day, but like @CheeselandSkies said, the ceiling and floor are very far-separated today.
