lake.effect
Member
I'd be skeptical of the NAM too but it's not far from the thermodynamics on most of the globals.
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jiharris0220
Member
Sounding taken from southern Missouri, 84hours out. Yeah, I hope the nam is out for lunch on this one. Only failure mode for this particular run and sounding is the overly deep moister which promotes too much crowding.
That forecast shear is doing a lot of work. 1126 0-3 km SRH
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Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
I think that sounding may be a tad convectively contaminated.That forecast shear is doing a lot of work. 1126 0-3 km SRH
That’s an insane hodograph though - looping going on notwithstanding.
jiharris0220
Member
Feels weird to see global models still showing a favorable environment within 84hrs and not downtrend into oblivion in 2024.
What I can find was in November 2022, but I'm pretty confident we had one more recent, but I can't find it.
UPDATE:
Back on January 7th of the this year was the last time.
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TornadoFan
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Tempestas Tonitrua
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Tempestas Tonitrua
Member
Per Trey, Thursday’s event is more dependent on “just in time moisture” while Saturday’s threat will already have that moisture in place.
Which already seems to be playing out on HRRR with hardly any, if at all, convection firing off the dryline Thursday.
lake.effect
Member
Getting concerned for DFW / North Central TX on Friday and Saturday. Some of the best parameters come together around the metroplex. We'll see how the CAMs handle it.
jiharris0220
Member
I’m not convinced yet, all of the models other than the Fv3 seem to have a hard time with initiation behind the crapvection line.
CheeselandSkies
Member
12Z 3KM NAM depiction for Friday afternoon in NE/IA is interesting, although unlikely to verify. It fires an intense bow echo at 20Z, which breaks up into semi-discrete supercells at 21Z and then back to a bow echo by 22Z.
tennessee storm chaser
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Should see a day 2 moderate risk in southern plains tomorrow outlook …. The hodos I’m looking at are insane
jiharris0220
Member
Yeah, the nam has a weird forcing bias, in which all convection that fires along any boundary/front will just instantly go linear.12Z 3KM NAM depiction for Friday afternoon in NE/IA is interesting, although unlikely to verify. It fires an intense bow echo at 20Z, which breaks up into semi-discrete supercells at 21Z and then back to a bow echo by 22Z.
Good ol’ nam and it’s quirks, lol.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Yes, indeed. The fact that it's showing any frames at all of semi-discrete convection with intense updraft helicity is concerning (or encouraging from a chase perspective). Not calling for anything of that caliber (yet), but it was also doing the same prior to 3/31/23, one of the few other times I've seen it do so.
TornadoFan
Member
Or not. Still an enhanced.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Much like last week Monday (although those issues are not quite as pronounced this go-around), tomorrow's setup has questions regarding wave timing, storm initiation/coverage and moisture depth. Not all CAMs fire convection and of those that do, not all portray sustained supercells.
SmokeEater
Member
Too many question marks for tomorrow to go moderate, could easily be a cap bust.
tennessee storm chaser
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Talking bout Saturday’s risk, My bad
