2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[JPWX]

CSU has East PAC ACE at 343.6 and West PAC ACE at 336.5. Catching up to each other

 

[Kds86z]

 

[SouthFLwx]

probably a cat 2 now

 

[Kds86z]

 

[SouthFLwx]

what a legendary storm. Managed to tie Sinlaku as the strongest storm of the season and generated nearly 50 units of ACE.

 

[Mike S]

This one will be interesting to watch as far as its eventual track. The Euro and GFS keeps this thing moving pretty much straight on into Taiwan and China, whereas Google and Euro's AI model both have Champi curving before Taiwan and heading to Japan.

The physics models ain't dead yet! A.I. models badly missed the path on this one.

It's almost as if this stuff isn't easy

 

[JPWX]

I still hardly ever use the AI models unless: 1. they agree with the operational models or their ensembles, 2. for tropical features

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

holy supercell fest Batman

 

[Atlantic]

Hurricane Vance became the record tying 11th major hurricane of the 2026 Pacific Hurricane Season, tying 2015. Vance also pushed an already record breaking ACE to above 350 units now.

Other than the 20/30 AOI just west of the IDL, expected to move E or NE and cross the IDL into the CPAC, the models don’t really have anything for EPAC or CPAC after that.

After what is currently Tropical Storm Champi (former STY) and Severe Tropical Storm In-fa (expected to become a powerful typhoon), models are mostly silent for the WPAC as well.