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2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion

NHC calls it at 180 mph, 892 mb

The pressure is the same as Melissa back in October 2025
 
That it has done this while almost stationary should tell you something about the depth of the heat content. Good grief, what an insane storm Polo is. I think we may get a few new records. It has the environmental support to get there.
 
Blountwolf said:
That it has done this while almost stationary should tell you something about the depth of the heat content. Good grief, what an insane storm Polo is. I think we may get a few new records. It has the environmental support to get there.
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I would have expected a storm to need some level of venting from a trough to the north of some kind to get this low, especially with its presentation on satellite. I heard on Storm2k that, whilst the extrapolated 889 mb pressure was being taken, the CDO wasn't screaming "sub-900" to some folks, and I would have to agree with that (despite it obviously officially getting that reading). Clearly an incredibly symmetric storm, though, and apparently it hit 32 C in the eye at 700 mb - absolutely insane. Some of the models were showing that the SSTs would have lowered to 26 C by now while the storm sits there, but I don't think that is the case atm.
 
JPWX said:
And that still might be underdone
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Idk, it seems to be doing an ERC now

Is it possible it could explosively deepen again with a stronger peak intensity than currently after the ERC is done?
 
slenker said:
I would have expected a storm to need some level of venting from a trough to the north of some kind to get this low, especially with its presentation on satellite. I heard on Storm2k that, whilst the extrapolated 889 mb pressure was being taken, the CDO wasn't screaming "sub-900" to some folks, and I would have to agree with that (despite it obviously officially getting that reading). Clearly an incredibly symmetric storm, though, and apparently it hit 32 C in the eye at 700 mb - absolutely insane. Some of the models were showing that the SSTs would have lowered to 26 C by now while the storm sits there, but I don't think that is the case atm.
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Are you on Storm2K my friend?
 
Atlantic said:
Idk, it seems to be doing an ERC now

Is it possible it could explosively deepen again with a stronger peak intensity than currently after the ERC is done?
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I think it's possible, yes - the depth of the ocean heat content is way beyond what we've seen before.
 
Atlantic said:
Idk, it seems to be doing an ERC now

Is it possible it could explosively deepen again with a stronger peak intensity than currently after the ERC is done?
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Yes it could. You know we saw Melissa not undergo any EWRC because it was over very warm waters and high oceanic heat content like Polo is. If it does undergo EWRC, a good example of a storm reaching a second peak is Allen 1980 then Beryl 2024. There's probably been a few others as well.
 
slenker said:
No, I was just taking a look at their commentary on Polo, since they seem like a bigger forum when it comes to tropical weather, whilst here is more tornado-oriented. I'm one who happens to be a little obsessed with both tropical weather and tornadoes.
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I have an account on there, and post in threads occasionally
 
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