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2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion
- Thread starter Atlantic
- Start date
- Thread starter
- #382
joshoctober16
Member
some models are putting 850+ mm / 35+ inches of rain for hawaii for a newly forming tropical system
joshoctober16
Member
ECMFW model of the big island of total in in the next 5 days.
Kds86z
Member
And that still might be underdone
That it has done this while almost stationary should tell you something about the depth of the heat content. Good grief, what an insane storm Polo is. I think we may get a few new records. It has the environmental support to get there.
slenker
Member
I would have expected a storm to need some level of venting from a trough to the north of some kind to get this low, especially with its presentation on satellite. I heard on Storm2k that, whilst the extrapolated 889 mb pressure was being taken, the CDO wasn't screaming "sub-900" to some folks, and I would have to agree with that (despite it obviously officially getting that reading). Clearly an incredibly symmetric storm, though, and apparently it hit 32 C in the eye at 700 mb - absolutely insane. Some of the models were showing that the SSTs would have lowered to 26 C by now while the storm sits there, but I don't think that is the case atm.
- Thread starter
- #389
Idk, it seems to be doing an ERC now
Is it possible it could explosively deepen again with a stronger peak intensity than currently after the ERC is done?
- Thread starter
- #390
Are you on Storm2K my friend?
Saw somewhere that a dropsonde had it at 190 MPH at the surface.
I think it's possible, yes - the depth of the ocean heat content is way beyond what we've seen before.
slenker
Member
No, I was just taking a look at their commentary on Polo, since they seem like a bigger forum when it comes to tropical weather, whilst here is more tornado-oriented. I'm one who happens to be a little obsessed with both tropical weather and tornadoes.
Yes it could. You know we saw Melissa not undergo any EWRC because it was over very warm waters and high oceanic heat content like Polo is. If it does undergo EWRC, a good example of a storm reaching a second peak is Allen 1980 then Beryl 2024. There's probably been a few others as well.