2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[slenker]

Tropical Storm Polo is in the midst of an explosive rapid intensification episode, with the intensity currently at 65 mph (55 kts), and the forecast calling for Polo to be a Category 2 hurricane by 8 pm tonight with 100 mph (85 kt) winds, and the current forecast explicitly calls for a Category 5 hurricane now, with the forecaster writing the discussion saying this

Conditions look ideal for explosive intensification during the next day or two, with Polo's small inner core over very warm and untapped waters above 30.5C, within light shear and plentiful mid-level moisture. Every model responds to these conditions by showing rapid intensification, and the SHIPS rapid intensification index is showing percentages as high as I have ever seen them. The new forecast is raised from the previous one and is very aggressive, but still below the latest HCCA corrected-consensus aid, which verbatim would be at least a 99th percentile event for intensification.

Wow, that is absolutely incredible. Let's see how this pans out. This wording is insane and I haven't seen it like this since Otis, thank goodness it isn't threatening land.

 

[Atlantic]

Wow, that is absolutely incredible. Let's see how this pans out. This wording is insane and I haven't seen it like this since Otis, thank goodness it isn't threatening land.

The 15Z advisory put Polo’s pressure at 997 mb, turns out the pressure from recon is actually 20 something mb lower, in the 970s

The winds support hurricane-force already too

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[Atlantic]

The 15Z advisory put Polo’s pressure at 997 mb, turns out the pressure from recon is actually 20 something mb lower, in the 970s

The winds support hurricane-force already too

Polo is now 70 kts (80 mph), pressure 977 mb