2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[slenker]

Tropical Storm Polo is in the midst of an explosive rapid intensification episode, with the intensity currently at 65 mph (55 kts), and the forecast calling for Polo to be a Category 2 hurricane by 8 pm tonight with 100 mph (85 kt) winds, and the current forecast explicitly calls for a Category 5 hurricane now, with the forecaster writing the discussion saying this

Conditions look ideal for explosive intensification during the next day or two, with Polo's small inner core over very warm and untapped waters above 30.5C, within light shear and plentiful mid-level moisture. Every model responds to these conditions by showing rapid intensification, and the SHIPS rapid intensification index is showing percentages as high as I have ever seen them. The new forecast is raised from the previous one and is very aggressive, but still below the latest HCCA corrected-consensus aid, which verbatim would be at least a 99th percentile event for intensification.

Wow, that is absolutely incredible. Let's see how this pans out. This wording is insane and I haven't seen it like this since Otis, thank goodness it isn't threatening land.

 

[Atlantic]

Wow, that is absolutely incredible. Let's see how this pans out. This wording is insane and I haven't seen it like this since Otis, thank goodness it isn't threatening land.

The 15Z advisory put Polo’s pressure at 997 mb, turns out the pressure from recon is actually 20 something mb lower, in the 970s

The winds support hurricane-force already too

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[Atlantic]

The 15Z advisory put Polo’s pressure at 997 mb, turns out the pressure from recon is actually 20 something mb lower, in the 970s

The winds support hurricane-force already too

Polo is now 70 kts (80 mph), pressure 977 mb

 

[slenker]

Once that eye clears, it's go time.

 

[slenker]

Less than an hour later… I cannot believe how quickly the structure is coming together here.

 

[Atlantic]

Less than an hour later… I cannot believe how quickly the structure is coming together here.View attachment 55042

When I pop on at 8:55 am tomorrow morning, I fully expect at least a Category 4 hurricane by the rate this storm is intensifying.

 

[Atlantic]

Polo is now a Category 2 hurricane according to the 00Z ATCF update

 

[Atlantic]

The NHC forecast from this morning was spot on calling for a Category 2 hurricane by 8 pm today

 

[joshoctober16]

already a cat 4 with winds of 130 mph

 

[warneagle]

up to 150. intensified 90 kt in 24 hours. not quite as fast as Patricia but still pretty hard to comprehend.

 

[TornadoFan]

up to 150. intensified 90 kt in 24 hours. not quite as fast as Patricia but still pretty hard to comprehend.

Now up to 160

 

[JBishopwx]

Polo has rapidly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane-the third of the 2026 eastern North Pacific season (to 180°W), joining Genevieve and Lowell. With three Cat. 5s, 2026 ties 1994 (Emilia, Gilma and John) for the most eastern North Pacific Cat. 5s on record by September 22

 

[Atlantic]

Hurricane Polo has intensified 85 kts (100 mph) in 24 hours, going from 55 kts (65 mph) at 11 am EST yesterday, to 145 kts (165 mph) at 11 am this morning

It’s pressure went from 997 mb to 920 mb

So that’s an 85 kt (100 mph) and a 77 mb drop in 24 hours time, going from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 in 24 hours time

 

[Kds86z]

EdplosHurricane Polo has intensified 85 kts (100 mph) in 24 hours, going from 55 kts (65 mph) at 11 am EST yesterday, to 145 kts (165 mph) at 11 am this morning

It’s pressure went from 997 mb to 920 mb

So that’s an 85 kt (100 mph) and a 77 mb drop in 24 hours time, going from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 in 24 hours time

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Atlantic]

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SUB 900!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[joshoctober16]

its moving more east then it should be.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Atlantic]

Bye Linda!!!!!!!