2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Atlantic]

Invest 91P (also known as Tropical Disturbance 11F by Fiji) has passed the 35 kt (40 mph) mark as of the 00Z April 5th ATCF update, with an intensity of 40 kts (45 mph), so expect the JTWC to upgrade Invest 91P to Tropical Cyclone 31P here soon.

The next name in the SPAC is Vaianu.
View attachment 52522

Anddd right on cue the ATCF adjusts the 00Z update to upgrade Invest 91P to Tropical Cyclone 31P…

 

[Atlantic]

Anddd right on cue the ATCF adjusts the 00Z update to upgrade Invest 91P to Tropical Cyclone 31P…

View attachment 52523

Fiji has upgraded Tropical Cyclone 31P (which was previously Tropical Depression 11F to them) to a tropical cyclone, declaring it Tropical Cyclone Vaianu.

Vaianu is the second named storm to form in the SPAC region this season, after Tropical Cyclone Urmil in late February.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Atlantic]

April is supposed to be the quietest month in the tropics, and yet we have three named storms spinning simultaneously in the SHEM (Indusa, Maila and Vaianu), with two of them in the Southern Pacific.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Atlantic]

Vaianu managed to become the first SPAC major cyclone since Lola from October 2023, and the first Severe Tropical Cyclone in the SPAC since Mal in November 2023.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Atlantic]

Invest 90W in the Western Pacific becomes Tropical Depression 04W.

The next international name in the WPAC is Sinlaku.
The next Philippine name in the WPAC is Caloy.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Atlantic]

Super Typhoon Sinlaku has reached 150 kts (175 mph), with a pressure of 902 mb according to the JTWC, making Sinlaku the first super typhoon in the April since Surigae in 2021, and the first Category 5 super typhoon since also Surigae in 2021.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[JPWX]

Surigae is only the 6th category 5 Super Typhoon in April since 1950.
Here's the other 5: Thelma (1956), Andy (1989), Isa (1997), Maysak (2015), Surigae (2021)

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Atlantic]

Surigae is only the 6th category 5 Super Typhoon in April since 1950.
Here's the other 5: Thelma (1956), Andy (1989), Isa (1997), Maysak (2015), Surigae (2021)

Definitely a sign of the El Niño to come if the WPAC is cranking out a C5 from a WWB in April, and east of Guam as well.

 

[Atlantic]

Definitely a sign of the El Niño to come if the WPAC is cranking out a C5 from a WWB in April, and east of Guam as well.

1997 and 2015 were both El Niño years too.

I have seen talk that the WWB that spawned Maila, Vaianu and Sinlaku could set the stage for a strong to even super El Niño later this year.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

JTWC (at least earlier) had Sinlaku at 180mph/896mbar.

Babe wake up new sub-900 April typhoon just dropped

 

[Atlantic]

JTWC (at least earlier) had Sinlaku at 180mph/896mbar.

Babe wake up new sub-900 April typhoon just dropped

JTWC did an override for 18Z yesterday, late in the evening EST time upping it to 185 mph, 890 mb.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[lake.effect]

A rare chance to witness a WPAC super typhoon make landfall with US radar systems...pretty amazing

 

[Atlantic]

A rare chance to witness a WPAC super typhoon make landfall with US radar systems...pretty amazing

Definitely an interesting thing to watch