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2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion

The JTWC has upgraded Invest 90S to a High chance of formation within the next 24-48 hours. Next name in the SWIO is Gezani.

IMG_4742.gif
WTXS21 PGTW 050730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 62.1E TO 16.0S 60.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5S 62.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.7S 62.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 62.0E, APPROXIMATELY 477 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 050448Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING, FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS LOCATED IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FLARING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C, GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY 20-25 KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT
ON STEADY INTENSIFICATION, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES SHOW SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT
ON THE TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CHARACTERIZES A WESTWARD
TURN TOWARDS MADAGASCAR INTO TAU 72 WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ILLUSTRATES
A STEADY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TAU 72, WITH A WESTWARD TRACK
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060730Z.//
NNNN
 
A TCFA has been issued on Invest 98P at long last, with the JTWC upgrading 98P to a High chance. It was tracked by BoM as Tropical Low 18U over the Gulf of Carpentaria, while the JTWC tracked it as a different invest, before it moved inland over the Cape York Peninsula and dissipated. However Invest 98P was opened by the JTWC as a new invest on TL 18U as the low moved westwards and then northwards back into the Gulf of Carpentaria. The low completed a clockwise loop and moved back inland over Australia as a land depression-style system and 18U dissipated. The JTWC continued to track 98P while BoM indicated that TL 21U developed from the remnants of 18U.

The system is expected to move offshore of NW Australia and it is likely to become a TC, with BOM expecting a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone on their scale as of now.

IMG_4744.gif
WTXS21 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98P)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050730Z FEB 26//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 050730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
075 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.8S 122.7E TO 19.0S 120.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.8S 122.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 126.7E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 122.6E, APPROXIMATELY 24 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AS
WELL AS A 051352Z METOP B 89V MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
CIRCULATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, RADAR FROM BROOME, AUSTRALIA
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DISPLACED FROM THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT TAKES A MORE COASTAL POSITION. A 051356Z ASCAT
PASS REVEALS ELEVATED WINDS (20-25 KTS) ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST IVO
ADELE ISLAND THESE ARE VERIFIED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON ADELE ISLAND
AT 051700Z READING 21KT WITH GUSTS OF 30KT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM COASTAL
WATERS (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL DEPICTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON THE CIRCULATION TRACKING BRIEFLY OVER WATER AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING
AND INTENSIFYING ALONG THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 12-
24HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061800Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 62.0E
//
NNNN
 
Atlantic said:
A TCFA has been issued on Invest 98P at long last, with the JTWC upgrading 98P to a High chance. It was tracked by BoM as Tropical Low 18U over the Gulf of Carpentaria, while the JTWC tracked it as a different invest, before it moved inland over the Cape York Peninsula and dissipated. However Invest 98P was opened by the JTWC as a new invest on TL 18U as the low moved westwards and then northwards back into the Gulf of Carpentaria. The low completed a clockwise loop and moved back inland over Australia as a land depression-style system and 18U dissipated. The JTWC continued to track 98P while BoM indicated that TL 21U developed from the remnants of 18U.

The system is expected to move offshore of NW Australia and it is likely to become a TC, with BOM expecting a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone on their scale as of now.

View attachment 50516
WTXS21 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98P)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050730Z FEB 26//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 050730)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
075 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.8S 122.7E TO 19.0S 120.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.8S 122.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 126.7E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 122.6E, APPROXIMATELY 24 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AS
WELL AS A 051352Z METOP B 89V MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
CIRCULATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, RADAR FROM BROOME, AUSTRALIA
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DISPLACED FROM THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT TAKES A MORE COASTAL POSITION. A 051356Z ASCAT
PASS REVEALS ELEVATED WINDS (20-25 KTS) ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST IVO
ADELE ISLAND THESE ARE VERIFIED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON ADELE ISLAND
AT 051700Z READING 21KT WITH GUSTS OF 30KT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM COASTAL
WATERS (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL DEPICTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON THE CIRCULATION TRACKING BRIEFLY OVER WATER AND QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING
AND INTENSIFYING ALONG THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 12-
24HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061800Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 62.0E
//
NNNN
Click to expand...
This system has become Tropical Cyclone 20S by the JTWC (listed as 20P in the ATCF for some reason)

The next name in the Australian Region is Mitchell.

IMG_4771.jpegIMG_4772.gif
This is also a rare occurrence of the JTWC initiating warnings on a SHEM system with winds under 35 kts (40 mph), because the JTWC typically initiates warnings on a system in the SHEM if it has a well-defined circulation, well-defined convection and winds of 35 kts (40 mph) at least.
 
Last edited:
BoM has designated Tropical Cyclone 20S as Tropical Cyclone Mitchell, the ninth named storm of the 2025-26 Australian Region Cyclone Season.
 
Atlantic said:
BoM has designated Tropical Cyclone 20S as Tropical Cyclone Mitchell, the ninth named storm of the 2025-26 Australian Region Cyclone Season.
Click to expand...
Mitchell is now expected by BoM to become a Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone on the Australian scale, which would make it the fifth severe tropical cyclone of the season and make this 2025-26 Australian Region Cyclone Season the fourth consecutive season in a row to feature at least five severe tropical cyclones.

The JTWC currently expects an 80 kt (90 mph) peak out of this cyclone, but it could potentially go even higher, though it is not suggested that it could at this moment.

BOM forecast
IMG_4789.png

JTWC forecast
IMG_4790.gif
 
Mitchell became a severe tropical cyclone overnight last night, the fifth one of the season, and BoM has it as a Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone on their scale. The JTWC currently has the intensity at 80 kts (90 mph)
 
Atlantic said:
The JTWC has upgraded Invest 90S to a High chance of formation within the next 24-48 hours. Next name in the SWIO is Gezani.

View attachment 50515
WTXS21 PGTW 050730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 62.1E TO 16.0S 60.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5S 62.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.7S 62.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 62.0E, APPROXIMATELY 477 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 050448Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING, FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS LOCATED IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FLARING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THROUGHOUT THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29 C, GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY 20-25 KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN A GOOD AGREEMENT
ON STEADY INTENSIFICATION, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLES SHOW SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT
ON THE TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE CHARACTERIZES A WESTWARD
TURN TOWARDS MADAGASCAR INTO TAU 72 WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE ILLUSTRATES
A STEADY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TAU 72, WITH A WESTWARD TRACK
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060730Z.//
NNNN
Click to expand...
This system has finally become a tropical cyclone according to the JTWC, with them designating it as Tropical Cyclone 21S as of the 00Z February 8th ATCF update. Meteo-France already knows this system as Tropical Depression 10 (currently at the moment by Meteo-France it is classified as a tropical disturbance)

Next name in the SWIO remains Gezani

IMG_4849.jpeg
 
Tropical Cyclone 21S has become Moderate Tropical Storm Gezani

It may not realize the strong intensity the models previously forecasted, but at least it managed to become a TC, which up until now it was becoming very uncertain whether it would even become a TC or not.

IMG_4852.jpeg
 
Atlantic said:
I Like To Move It Reaction GIF by iACE
JTWC being funny with the first warning on 19S, referring to King Julian and Madagascar. If you know, you know.

THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED AND CAUSING 19S TO ''MOVE IT MOVE
IT'' ACROSS MADAGASCAR.
Click to expand...
Haha nice @Atlantic !
 
Last edited:
Here is a screenshot I recorded of Severe Tropical Storm Gezani as it moves out of range of the Marturus and Réunion radar range.

WeatherWise_2026_02_09_15_54_57.png
 
Gezani is still intensifying and it is expected by the JTWC to reach 95 kts (110 mph) prior to landfalling in central eastern Madagascar and move overland and reemerge in the Mozambique Channel before reintensifying and turning towards a SW trajectory.
 
Tropical Cyclone Gezani has reached hurricane-force as of the 18Z ATCF update, with an intensity of 70 kts (80 mph), and the current satellite imagery suggests that it is well on track to exceed or even go beyond the current forecast 95 kts (110 mph) before landfall in Madagascar in a day or two.

IMG_4965.gif
A view of the intensification since last night, note the appearance at the beginning as a mature tropical storm, before it becomes better developed and defined as the time goes on in the loop, with an eye feature showing up at the end of the loop.
 
Gezani reached 110 kts (125 mph) before making landfall in Madagascar a few hours ago, becoming the third major cyclone of 2026 globally and the fifth major cyclone of the 2025-26 SHEM season.
 
Here we go again… this time in the Mozambique Channel.

IMG_5082.webp
IMG_5081.jpeg
 
Gezani pretending like it didn’t just go over Madagascar and get its core destroyed before moving back out over water again

IMG_5113.png
 
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