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2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion

Dudzai has become an Intense Tropical Cyclone by Meteo-France and it is at 100 kts (115 mph) by the JTWC, and it has become the first major cyclone globally of 2026, likely the first of many globally. Current forecast peak is 110 kts (125 mph) but it could easily go higher.

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The 12Z ATCF has released, and Dudzai is now a 115 kt (130 mph) Category 4 equivalent Intense Tropical Cyclone and the first Cat 4 globally in 2026.

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After calculations, I have discovered that Dudzai is the 317th named storm globally that I have tracked, dating back to the first ever storm that I tracked, which was Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
 
Atlantic said:
After calculations, I have discovered that Dudzai is the 317th named storm globally that I have tracked, dating back to the first ever storm that I tracked, which was Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
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Confused Rooster Teeth GIF by Achievement Hunter
 
Wakey Wakey already NHEM! TCFA on High chance Invest 91W in the Western Pacific has been issued recently. First high-chance invest in the Western Pacific in January since 2018.

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WTPN21 PGTW 140130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.8N 132.5E TO 10.9N 129.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.8N 132.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.8N 131.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM WEST
OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS, A 130025
METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS AREAS OF ELEVATED WINDS TO THE NORTH AS WELL
AS A WELL DEFINED AND SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C)
OFFSET WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 91W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150130Z.
//
NNNN
 
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Invest 91W has entered the Philippines area of Responsibility and has been designated by PAGASA as Tropical Depression Ada, the first Philippine name to be used in this season, and Ada actually is a new name, replacing Agaton from 2022, which was used for Tropical Storm Megi that year (Megi was also retired)

The JTWC retains their high chance of development on it as of now.
 
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The JTWC has upgraded Invest 91W to Tropical Depression 01W, the first TC to form in the WPAC in the month of January since 2018.

The next international name remains Nokaen.

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With the formation of Tropical Depression 01W today, this marks the earliest start to the NHEM season since Tropical Storm 01W’s formation in March 2022 and the earliest start to the WPAC season since 2018.

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Atlantic said:
With the formation of Tropical Depression 01W today, this marks the earliest start to the NHEM season since Tropical Storm 01W’s formation in March 2022 and the earliest start to the WPAC season since 2018.

View attachment 49910
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JMA upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Nokaen overnight, but the JTWC still holds at tropical depression status, so the JTWC knows it as Tropical Depression Nokaen.
 
Meanwhile Dudzai in the South-West Indian Ocean weakened all the way from its 125 kt (145 mph) peak, equivalent to a Category 4, down to a 65 kt (75 mph) cyclone, equivalent to a Category 1. Dudzai has been on a reintensifcation trend overnight and its intensity is back up to 95 kt (110 mph) with the JTWC expecting a secondary peak of 105 kts (120 mph) out of the cyclone.

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Dudzai’s intensity is back to 110 kts (125 mph), and it is once again a major cyclone according to the 12Z ATCF.

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Dudzai managed to nearly reachieve its peak of 125 kts (145 mph), with it’s secondary peak intensity reaching 120 kts (140 mph)
 
An Invest in the Mozambique Channel in the SWIO, Invest 98S (also known by Meteo-France as Tropical Depression 07) has quickly consolidated from just being designated an invest less than 24 hours ago to becoming Tropical Cyclone 15S by the JTWC.

Next name in the SWIO is Ewetse

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Dudzai is still active near Reunion as a 55 kt (65 mph) tropical storm, but it is on its way out and it will likely turn post-tropical within 24-36 hours or less.
 
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Atlantic said:
An Invest in the Mozambique Channel in the SWIO, Invest 98S (also known by Meteo-France as Tropical Depression 07) has quickly consolidated from just being designated an invest less than 24 hours ago to becoming Tropical Cyclone 15S by the JTWC.

Next name in the SWIO is Ewetse

View attachment 50039

Dudzai is still active near Reunion as a 55 kt (65 mph) tropical storm, but it is on its way out and it will likely turn post-tropical with 24-36 hours or less.
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Breaking immediately after I made this post, Meteo-France has upgraded the system to Moderate Tropical Storm Ewetse

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Another tropical cyclone forms, this time in the eastern Australian Region, from an Invest 99P, which is now Tropical Cyclone 16P

We also have busy tropics in terms of invests right now, as shown below

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Invest 91S (Tropical Low 16U in the Australian Region) has reached 35 kts (40 mph) and the JTWC will likely call it Tropical Cyclone 17S soon.

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I’ve been busy tracking a winter storm set to hit a huge area of the U.S., so I’ve been busy with that, so tropical updates will be slow until the winter storm threat passes.
 
Atlantic said:
Invest 91S (Tropical Low 16U in the Australian Region) has reached 35 kts (40 mph) and the JTWC will likely call it Tropical Cyclone 17S soon.

View attachment 50169
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ATCF updates with the 00Z update, and 91S becomes Tropical Cyclone 17S officially

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