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2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion

Breaking:

Tropical Cyclone 17S becomes Tropical Cyclone Luana by BoM.

IMG_4225.jpeg
 
Luana peaked at 55 kts (65 mph), and made landfall near the same area Severe Tropical Cyclone Hayley landfalled last month.

In other words, Invest 90P is still going, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it become Tropical Cyclone 18P by tomorrow, as the JTWC has it at High chance with a TCFA on it right now.

IMG_4340.gif
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270221ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S 168.6E TO 17.9S 172.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S 171.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISUAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT INVEST
90P CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LLCC. THE 272128Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A NEARLY SYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD WITH HIGHER WINDS (25-30KTS) ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN BOUNDARY OF
THE CIRCULATION. STRUCTURALLY THE SYSTEM REMAINS TILTED WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST DELAYING A TIGHTER RADIUS AND
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, WHILE BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY
ALIGNED AND INTENSIFYING, OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE LLCC WILL BE
MIGRATING TOWARD AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40KT) AND
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR GIVING THIS SYSTEM AN EXTREMELY SHORT WINDOW OF
INTENSIFICATION AND LIFESPAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 270230).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290230Z.
//
NNNN
 
Atlantic said:
Luana peaked at 55 kts (65 mph), and made landfall near the same area Severe Tropical Cyclone Hayley landfalled last month.

In other words, Invest 90P is still going, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it become Tropical Cyclone 18P by tomorrow, as the JTWC has it at High chance with a TCFA on it right now.

View attachment 50420
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270221ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S 168.6E TO 17.9S 172.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S 171.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISUAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT INVEST
90P CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION BUILDING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LLCC. THE 272128Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A NEARLY SYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD WITH HIGHER WINDS (25-30KTS) ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN BOUNDARY OF
THE CIRCULATION. STRUCTURALLY THE SYSTEM REMAINS TILTED WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST DELAYING A TIGHTER RADIUS AND
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, WHILE BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY
ALIGNED AND INTENSIFYING, OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE LLCC WILL BE
MIGRATING TOWARD AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40KT) AND
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR GIVING THIS SYSTEM AN EXTREMELY SHORT WINDOW OF
INTENSIFICATION AND LIFESPAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 270230).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290230Z.
//
NNNN
Click to expand...
Invest 90P did end up becoming Tropical Cyclone 18P, and it became another example of FMS not naming an obvious storm.
 
An invest in the Mozambique Channel was designated yesterday by the JTWC, and it quickly went from low to medium to now a High chance invest, which as of the 18Z ATCF update, has maximum sustained
winds at 35 kts (40 mph), so it’s safe to say that we will likely get Tropical Cyclone 19S here soon. The next name in the SWIO is Fytia.

IMG_4386.gif
WTXS21 PGTW 291230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 41.7E TO 16.0S 45.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 42.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.4S 42.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 42.3E, APPROXIMATELY 113 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10
TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW 97S TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH QUICK DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
301230Z.//
NNNN
 
Another Invest, Invest 98P, is in the Gulf of Carpentaria north of mainland Australia, and it is currently at a Medium Chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 24-48 hours according to the JTWC. Should it become a TC, it would be designated Tropical Cyclone 20P by the JTWC. The next Australian region name is Mitchell.
 
Atlantic said:
An invest in the Mozambique Channel was designated yesterday by the JTWC, and it quickly went from low to medium to now a High chance invest, which as of the 18Z ATCF update, has maximum sustained
winds at 35 kts (40 mph), so it’s safe to say that we will likely get Tropical Cyclone 19S here soon. The next name in the SWIO is Fytia.

View attachment 50431
WTXS21 PGTW 291230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 41.7E TO 16.0S 45.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 42.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.4S 42.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 42.3E, APPROXIMATELY 113 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10
TO 15 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW 97S TRACKING EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH QUICK DEVELOPMENT BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
301230Z.//
NNNN
Click to expand...
The system becomes Tropical Cyclone 19S as expected, with the first forecast expecting a 65 kt (75 mph) peak before landfall in Madagascar, and then a second 65 kt/75 mph peak at the end of the forecast period after emerging away from Madagascar and back over open water.

IMG_4491.jpeg
Invest 96S photobombs on the other side of Madagascar, but that invest is done and will not do anything.
 
Atlantic said:
The system becomes Tropical Cyclone 19S as expected, with the first forecast expecting a 65 kt (75 mph) peak before landfall in Madagascar, and then a second 65 kt/75 mph peak at the end of the forecast period after emerging away from Madagascar and back over open water.

View attachment 50434
Invest 96S photobombs on the other side of Madagascar, but that invest is done and will not do anything.
Click to expand...
From what I can uncover, 19S is the second earliest nineteenth JTWC designated TC in the SHEM on record according to IBTRACS, only behind the infamous 1996-97 season which saw the nineteenth SHEM storm of the season that season form on January 20th.

So to sum it up:

1996-97 - January 20th
2025-26 - January 29th
 
Atlantic said:
From what I can uncover, 19S is the second earliest nineteenth JTWC designated TC in the SHEM on record according to IBTRACS, only behind the infamous 1996-97 season which saw the nineteenth SHEM storm of the season that season form on January 20th.

So to sum it up:

1996-97 - January 20th
2025-26 - January 29th
Click to expand...
We are also 3 cyclones behind the 1996-97 season, which was at 22 designated cyclones by the JTWC at this point in the SHEM season.
 
JTWC being funny with the first warning on 19S, referring to King Julian and Madagascar. If you know, you know.

THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED AND CAUSING 19S TO ''MOVE IT MOVE
IT'' ACROSS MADAGASCAR.
 
Tropical Cyclone 19S becomes Moderate Tropical Storm Fytia, the sixth name to be used in the SWIO this season.

IMG_4497.jpeg
 
In about 24 hours, Fytia has gone crazy with the very favorable conditions in its area of the Mozambique Channel and it has rapidly intensified to become a 100 kt (115 mph) major cyclone, the second major cyclone of 2026 globally and the fourth major cyclone of the 2025-26 SHEM cyclone season.

IMG_4530.jpeg
 
It’s been several days since I updated this place, but we have another WPAC invest, Invest 94W, which is at a Medium Chance for development into a tropical cyclone over the next 24-48 hours by the JTWC. The system has also entered the Philippines area of responsibility and has been named Tropical Depression Basyang.

IMG_4673.jpegIMG_4674.jpeg
 
In the SHEM, Tropical Cyclone Fytia is on its way out, but we have another invest in the SWIO behind it, Invest 90S, which could become a decently strong storm if the models are to be believed.

Next name in the SWIO is Gezani, which was first on this SWIO list three years ago in the 2022-23 season, but it wasn’t used that year, as that year stopped at Fabien (Fytia is the name replacement of Fabien). But if it had been, it would have been automatically replaced with a new name, as when a name is used in the SWIO, it is a single use name and it is replaced with a new name for the next time the list is used three years after.

IMG_4675.png
IMG_4676.gif
 
Atlantic said:
It’s been several days since I updated this place, but we have another WPAC invest, Invest 94W, which is at a Medium Chance for development into a tropical cyclone over the next 24-48 hours by the JTWC. The system has also entered the Philippines area of responsibility and has been named Tropical Depression Basyang.

View attachment 50502View attachment 50503
Click to expand...
Invest 94W (Tropical Depression Basyang in the Philippines) has been upgraded to a High chance of development in the next 24-48 hours by the JTWC, and the JTWC has issued a TCFA on the invest, as they always do with invests with a high chance of development over the next 24-48 hours.
IMG_4685.gif
WTPN21 PGTW 031400 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W) CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1N 135.0E TO 7.6N 128.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.1N 135.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.0N 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY
111 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
FLARING, FRAGMENTED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION BUT
FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT. A PARTIAL 031203Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS
THE HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC NATURE OF THE LLCC, WITH LIGHT WINDS EXTENDING ALL
ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK, AND STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (25KTS TO 35KTS)
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK. THE LLCC IS POSITIONED IN THE FAR NORTHERN
END OF A THE HIGHLY ELONGATED, BEAN-SHAPED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO
30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE
QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF 94W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALSO AGREE IN A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS
HIGH
.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041400Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED DIRECTION FROM PALAU IN
PARAGRAPH 2.//
NNNN
 
Atlantic said:
Invest 94W (Tropical Depression Basyang in the Philippines) has been upgraded to a High chance of development in the next 24-48 hours by the JTWC, and the JTWC has issued a TCFA on the invest, as they always do with invests with a high chance of development over the next 24-48 hours.
View attachment 50506
WTPN21 PGTW 031400 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W) CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1N 135.0E TO 7.6N 128.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.1N 135.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.0N 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY
111 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
FLARING, FRAGMENTED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION BUT
FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT. A PARTIAL 031203Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS
THE HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC NATURE OF THE LLCC, WITH LIGHT WINDS EXTENDING ALL
ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK, AND STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (25KTS TO 35KTS)
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK. THE LLCC IS POSITIONED IN THE FAR NORTHERN
END OF A THE HIGHLY ELONGATED, BEAN-SHAPED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO
30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE
QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF 94W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALSO AGREE IN A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS
HIGH
.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041400Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED DIRECTION FROM PALAU IN
PARAGRAPH 2.//
NNNN
Click to expand...
Invest 94W has become Tropical Depression 02W, the second tropical cyclone to form in the NHEM this year.
IMG_4713.jpeg
 
First warning graphic from the JTWC on newly-formed Tropical Depression 02W (Basyang)

IMG_4714.gif
 
Tropical Depression 02W has just recently been named Tropical Storm Penha by JMA, however it is still a tropical depression by the JTWC.

Penha replaces the name Vongfong from the 2020 season. The previous name before Penha, which was Nokaen, replaced Phanfone from the 2019 season.

From JMA:
T2602(Penha)
Issued at 2026/02/04 13:10 UTC
Analysis at 02/04 12 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°05′ (9.1°)
E131°55′ (131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area N330 km (180 NM)
S220 km (120 NM)
 
Last edited:
JTWC has upgraded Penha to Tropical Storm status.

IMG_4741.gif
 
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