akt1985
Member
If the GFS forecast becomes true, at least, hopefully, it won’t be the I named storm.
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2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
- Thread starter Atlantic
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- #102
Next name actually is Fay
FWIW, 18ZGFS cane today is up out of the Caribbean across Cuba and the Bahamas, then an Atlantic fish.
ECMWF long range has no idea what the GFS is smoking.
ECMWF long range has no idea what the GFS is smoking.
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I forget which run, but it was yesterday the Euro showed a low, I think in the Florida Strait, but it might have been south of Cuba. It left as quickly as it came. That was as close as I had seen. It was gone by the next run.
Kds86z
Member
akt1985
Member
I for one hope the GFS fantasy storm doesn’t happen. It has the makings of a Hurricane that would get its name retired if it did happen as forecasted.
0Z - nothing
06Z - nightmare that rides up west coast of florida, pull out into the gulf, then hits the panhandle before getting stuck in the mountains Helene style.
12Z - nothing
And importantly, all this is 300+ hours out, and not getting closer each run. IMO, this is the GFS saying "well this is the right time of year for hurricanes, right? I should spit one out here in a couple of weeks."
0Z - nothing
06Z - nightmare that rides up west coast of florida, pull out into the gulf, then hits the panhandle before getting stuck in the mountains Helene style.
12Z - nothing
And importantly, all this is 300+ hours out, and not getting closer each run. IMO, this is the GFS saying "well this is the right time of year for hurricanes, right? I should spit one out here in a couple of weeks."
I have no clue why people use the GFS for hurricanes. It's just not made for that.
In this case, because it's the only one showing something.
I certainly wouldn't use it for that for real, I hope that much I made clear.
Look at the MJO and the Ensemble models instead of single run outputs. The MJO suggests we'll gonna get something close in the next few weeks. Of course, I'll get hammered for saying anything on here. That's been the trend anyways which is why I took a break. I honestly have felt better not being on here.
Kds86z
Member
akt1985
Member
It wouldn’t surprise me if 1907 and 1914 had a Hurricane way out in the Atlantic that no one knew about as there were no ships or satellites to track these fish hurricanes like we have today.
Stage is set for tropical uptick/threat: The MJO moving into favorable phases, the Euro showing 20% prob for tropical storm between Sep. 28th thru Oct. 5th, 12z Euro 15-Day Precip Anomalies, and now the CPC highlighting a slight risk of heavy precipitation Gulf Coast to SE Coast.
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akt1985
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So the GFS might come true after all?
No sign of it. Euro's just modeling typical Gulf climate at 300+ and some knuckleheads on the internet used AI to push the (literally hour 360!) ECMWF map as if it has bearing to reality.