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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

Atlantic said:
Invest 95W has become Tropical Depression 02W.

02W is located 500 km east-southeast of Iwo To, and has tracked northwestward at 9 km/h (5 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 3.7 meters (12 feet).

02W is forecast to track northwestward, along the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge over the next 2 days.

In around 3 days, the system will begin to round the ridge axis and turn northeastward as it skirts the eastern coast of central Honshu. 02W will then accelerate off to the northeast through the remainder of the forecast period.

Regarding intensity, 02W is forecast to marginally intensify over the next 24 hours as the vortex tracks away from the TUTT cell and shear decreases.

The poleward outflow channel will begin to wane simultaneously though, putting a cap on the intensification trend. In around 2 days, sea surface temperatures will begin to drop as the system gains latitude.

Sea temperatures are expected to be around 25°C at 3 days and then 22°C at 4 days, causing the system to weaken and drop below tropical storm strength as it approaches Honshu.

Dissipation is forecast to occur in around 4 days due to combination of cool waters and rapidly increasing shear. Model guidance agrees on a northwestward track with a recurve scenario.

NAVGEM is the primary outlier, as it has the system move more quickly and recurve sooner than the remainder of guidance suggests. The JTWC track forecast is placed closer to the main grouping of trackers with medium confidence over the next 3 days and then low confidence thereafter.

The lower confidence after 3 days is attributed to the increase in along-track spread as the shallow vortex races off to the northeast. Intensity guidance is in moderate agreement with consensus members ranging from 55–85 km/h (30–45 knots) over the next 2 days and then weakening over the next 4 days.

HWRF and COAMPS-TC (GFS based) are the two slightly more aggressive models of the bunch.

Overall, the JTWC intensity forecast is placed with medium confidence throughout the forecast period.

Warning Number 1. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

The Eastern Pacific disturbance is now traceable and is now at 10% in 48 hours or 2 days. Still 70% in 7 days.
Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico: A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is located a couple of hundred miles offshore of Central America. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop from this system within the next day or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua through the early part of this week.

Forecaster Hagen. Information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

We got a lemon marked in the central subtropical Atlantic which has become our first Invest of the Atlantic Hurricane Season: Invest 90L
Invest 90L is currently located in the western Atlantic Ocean. The system has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next 2 days, and a 20%chance in the next 7 days.

What is an Invest?An Invest is an area of disturbed weather that is under investigation for its potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm.

Central Subtropical Atlantic: Satellite data indicate that a weak low pressure system has formed about 450 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. The associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized, but some slow development is possible during the next day or so while the low moves northeastward over the central Atlantic.

By Monday night, however, the system is expected to move over cool waters and into a region of strong upper-level winds, ending its opportunity for development.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen. Information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Click to expand...
I just posted that on the atlantic thread hours ago jfl
 
JMA hasn’t upgraded TD 02W (What they call TD a) to a tropical storm yet. Should they upgrade it to a tropical storm the next name on the list in the Western Pacific is Sepat
IMG_0174.pngIMG_0175.png
 
I was looking on Wikipedia and I came across an 1804 Hurricane that became the first recorded hurricane to produce snowfall. It did so in New England. There is no official track for the hurricane, but based off of locations mentioned in the article I have tried to put together a track for the storm.
IMG_0179.pngIMG_0180.png
IMG_0181.png
And finally my track I made for the storm. This track is what I imagined:
IMG_0178.png
 
Atlantic said:
ClspI was looking on Wikipedia and I came across an 1804 Hurricane that became the first recorded hurricane to produce snowfall. It did so in New England. There is no official track for the hurricane, but based off of locations mentioned in the article I have tried to put together a track for the storm.
View attachment 44407View attachment 44408
View attachment 44409
And finally my track I made for the storm. This track is what I imagined:
View attachment 44410
Click to expand...
Nice work @Atlantic
Ryan Gosling Clap GIF
 
Last edited:
Invest 90L has quickly gone code orange with a 40/40 shot from 10/10 to 20/20 earlier today.
IMG_0232.jpeg
 
The Atlantic right now:
IMG_0234.jpeg
 
Two concurrent developments have occurred with 02W.

First CyclonicWX has this;

Tropical Storm TWO​

Updated June 23, 2025 at 00:00 UTC

Located at 24.6°N, 144.7°E

Minimum Pressure: 1006 mb

Maximum Winds: 35 kt

Radius of Maximum Wind: N/A nm

Environmental Pressure: N/A mb

Storm Radius: N/A nm
Satellite LoopLatest GFS ForecastLatest ECMWF Forecast

​

And the Japan Meteorology Agency has upgraded TD 02W (what the called TD a) to Tropical Storm Sepat, the second named storm of the 2025 Pacific Typhoon Season:

T2502(Sepat)
Issued at 2025/06/23 01:30 UTC
Analysis at 06/23 00 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N24°30′ (24.5°)
E144°40′ (144.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NE280 km (150 NM)
SW110 km (60 NM)
 
Atlantic said:
Two concurrent developments have occurred with 02W.

First CyclonicWX has this;

Tropical Storm TWO​

Updated June 23, 2025 at 00:00 UTC

Located at 24.6°N, 144.7°E

Minimum Pressure: 1006 mb

Maximum Winds: 35 kt

Radius of Maximum Wind: N/A nm

Environmental Pressure: N/A mb

Storm Radius: N/A nm
Satellite LoopLatest GFS ForecastLatest ECMWF Forecast

​

And the Japan Meteorology Agency has upgraded TD 02W (what the called TD a) to Tropical Storm Sepat, the second named storm of the 2025 Pacific Typhoon Season:

T2502(Sepat)
Issued at 2025/06/23 01:30 UTC
Analysis at 06/23 00 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N24°30′ (24.5°)
E144°40′ (144.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area NE280 km (150 NM)
SW110 km (60 NM)
Click to expand...
When you expect this season to explode @Atlantic?
 
Newly-named Tropical Storm Sepat is looking decent for a 35 kt tropical storm;
IMG_0316.jpeg
Invest 90L appears to still be attempting TCG at this moment in time;
IMG_0317.jpeg
 
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