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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

First major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in June since 2018. This also marks the first time that a tropical system named Erick has reached major hurricane intensity since it was added to the list of names.
 
Erick’s has set some new precedents;

Earliest “E” named storm for the EPAC

One of the Easternmost, if not the easternmost MH landfalls on record

Earliest EPAC MH to strike Mexico on record for the EPAC as well as the ATL.
 
If that isn’t enough, how about the fact that we have yet ANOTHER AoI that is around the same area that Erick formed and it is currently 0/20 in chances right now?
 
We have Invest 95W in the Western Pacific. It could become a brief TC as it takes a close pass to Japan while recurrving OTS:

IMG_9863.jpeg


The Eastern Pacific AoI is up to a medium chance in 7 days, with it running 0/40 right now.

IMG_9864.jpeg
 
IdaliaHelene said:
squishy squishy!

60 now
Click to expand...
It is now code red at 70%. Should this develop, it would be 6 for 6 on disturbances, as every area the NHC has highlighted in the EPAC to date has developed minus this current one.

We are currently 5 for 5 right now.
 
Invest 95W is now at medium chance according to the JTWC. A TUTT is currently hindering development but the JTWC does expect further development once it moves more northwards away from the TUTT.
 
Atlantic said:
Invest 95W is now at medium chance according to the JTWC. A TUTT is currently hindering development but the JTWC does expect further development once it moves more northwards away from the TUTT.
Click to expand...
The JTWC on Invest 95W;

Maximum sustained surface winds are around 30–35 km/h (15–20 knots). Minimum sea-level pressure is estimated to be near 1008 hPa.

Satellite imagery shows persistent deep convection over the eastern edge of a consolidating low-level circulation center (LLCC). Furthermore, environmental analysis shows 95W is currently in a moderately favorable environment for development with low (10–15 knot) wind shear, weak poleward outflow aloft and warm (29–30°C) sea surface temperatures.

The only hindrance to development currently is a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) cell positioned west of the system that is currently restricting outflow along the northwestern semicircle.

Forecast models are in fair agreement that 95W will move northwestward and develop over the next 24 hours as it continues to distance itself from the aforementioned TUTT cell.

Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
 
Atlantic said:
The JTWC on Invest 95W;

Maximum sustained surface winds are around 30–35 km/h (15–20 knots). Minimum sea-level pressure is estimated to be near 1008 hPa.

Satellite imagery shows persistent deep convection over the eastern edge of a consolidating low-level circulation center (LLCC). Furthermore, environmental analysis shows 95W is currently in a moderately favorable environment for development with low (10–15 knot) wind shear, weak poleward outflow aloft and warm (29–30°C) sea surface temperatures.

The only hindrance to development currently is a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) cell positioned west of the system that is currently restricting outflow along the northwestern semicircle.

Forecast models are in fair agreement that 95W will move northwestward and develop over the next 24 hours as it continues to distance itself from the aforementioned TUTT cell.

Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).
Click to expand...
Anddd now it is high chance!
IMG_0092.gif
WTPN21 PGTW 220200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.9N 146.6E TO 27.0N 142.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.3N 146.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
22.3N 146.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 301 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 212300Z ASCAT
METOP-B 25KM IMAGE SHOWS ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS (20 KNOTS) BEGINNING
TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 95W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY HINDRANCE TO
DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY IS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL POSITIONED WEST OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTING
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230200Z.
//
NNNN
 
Atlantic said:
Anddd now it is high chance!
View attachment 44379
WTPN21 PGTW 220200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.9N 146.6E TO 27.0N 142.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.3N 146.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
22.3N 146.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 301 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 212300Z ASCAT
METOP-B 25KM IMAGE SHOWS ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS (20 KNOTS) BEGINNING
TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 95W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY HINDRANCE TO
DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY IS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL POSITIONED WEST OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTING
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230200Z.
//
NNNN
Click to expand...
I haven’t seen an Invest under the JTWC’s watch go from Low to High chance this fast since Garance in the SWIO in February during that six storm SHEM outbreak.
 
Atlantic said:
I haven’t seen an Invest under the JTWC’s watch go from Low to High chance this fast since Garance in the SWIO in February during that six storm SHEM outbreak.
Click to expand...
Well that’s about the fastest I’ve ever seen the JTWC going from designating an invest with a low chance of formation to upgrading it to high chance and issuing a TCFA on it.

This is what has happened to Invest 97S. The JTWC had designated it around this time last night, noted it as a medium chance invest around 10-11am EST on their map they issue on their homepage to now at near 7:40 pm EST.

IMG_4743.jpeg


WTXS21 PGTW 242200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2S 51.3E TO 17.4S 55.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 242200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.2S 51.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.0S 51.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 51.6E, APPROXIMATELY
282 NM NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 241725Z ASCAT
METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS 35 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
HOWEVER, THE 35 KNOT WIND BARS ARE FLAGGED IN THE QC VERSION OF THE
IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
OF 29-30 C. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE,
FORECASTING GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 97S OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH A GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252200Z.//
NNNN




The Satellite Fix bulletin on this has it at T#1.5, or around 30 kts.

IMG_4744.jpeg
Click to expand...
Post in thread '2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion'
https://talkweather.com/threads/2025-global-tropical-cyclone-season-discussion.2321/post-140156

The post I am talking about from Garance above in the spoiler.
 
Here is what Invest 95W looks like right now as well as the GEFS and GEPS guidance on it:
IMG_0095.jpeg
IMG_0096.png
IMG_0097.png
 
Invest 95W has become Tropical Depression 02W.

02W is located 500 km east-southeast of Iwo To, and has tracked northwestward at 9 km/h (5 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 3.7 meters (12 feet).

02W is forecast to track northwestward, along the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge over the next 2 days.

In around 3 days, the system will begin to round the ridge axis and turn northeastward as it skirts the eastern coast of central Honshu. 02W will then accelerate off to the northeast through the remainder of the forecast period.

Regarding intensity, 02W is forecast to marginally intensify over the next 24 hours as the vortex tracks away from the TUTT cell and shear decreases.

The poleward outflow channel will begin to wane simultaneously though, putting a cap on the intensification trend. In around 2 days, sea surface temperatures will begin to drop as the system gains latitude.

Sea temperatures are expected to be around 25°C at 3 days and then 22°C at 4 days, causing the system to weaken and drop below tropical storm strength as it approaches Honshu.

Dissipation is forecast to occur in around 4 days due to combination of cool waters and rapidly increasing shear. Model guidance agrees on a northwestward track with a recurve scenario.

NAVGEM is the primary outlier, as it has the system move more quickly and recurve sooner than the remainder of guidance suggests. The JTWC track forecast is placed closer to the main grouping of trackers with medium confidence over the next 3 days and then low confidence thereafter.

The lower confidence after 3 days is attributed to the increase in along-track spread as the shallow vortex races off to the northeast. Intensity guidance is in moderate agreement with consensus members ranging from 55–85 km/h (30–45 knots) over the next 2 days and then weakening over the next 4 days.

HWRF and COAMPS-TC (GFS based) are the two slightly more aggressive models of the bunch.

Overall, the JTWC intensity forecast is placed with medium confidence throughout the forecast period.

Warning Number 1. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

The Eastern Pacific disturbance is now traceable and is now at 10% in 48 hours or 2 days. Still 70% in 7 days.
Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico: A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is located a couple of hundred miles offshore of Central America. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop from this system within the next day or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive for subsequent gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua through the early part of this week.

Forecaster Hagen. Information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

We got a lemon marked in the central subtropical Atlantic which has become our first Invest of the Atlantic Hurricane Season: Invest 90L
Invest 90L is currently located in the western Atlantic Ocean. The system has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next 2 days, and a 20%chance in the next 7 days.

What is an Invest?An Invest is an area of disturbed weather that is under investigation for its potential to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm.

Central Subtropical Atlantic: Satellite data indicate that a weak low pressure system has formed about 450 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. The associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized, but some slow development is possible during the next day or so while the low moves northeastward over the central Atlantic.

By Monday night, however, the system is expected to move over cool waters and into a region of strong upper-level winds, ending its opportunity for development.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen. Information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
 
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