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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

The Eastern Pacific AOI has been marked Invest 93E. It is up to 30/90 now for formation chances.

And of course the Eastern Pacific isn’t done yet as the NHC marked a 0/20 behind 93E.
IMG_9050.jpeg
Tell me the Eastern Pacific isn’t spamming storms without telling me the Eastern Pacific isn’t spamming storms.
 
Kds86z said:
Thoughts on Barbara @Atlantic?
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Pathetic. The -PDO has lead to below average sea surface temperatures near the Baja California peninsula, meaning that Barbara (and Cosme too) didn’t really have much time to get going before reaching cold waters. Barbara was barely a hurricane, peaking at 75 mph.

Invest 93E is further south, so it may have more time to intensify, possibly to a major hurricane in the near future if the atmospheric conditions are just right.
 
Interesting Fact: With PTC Four being designated by NHC in the Eastern Pacific, it marks only the 3rd time since 1950 that the Eastern Pacific has had 4 tropical systems before June 15th.

The only other 2 years are 1974 and 2018.
 
JPWX said:
Interesting Fact: With PTC Four being designated by NHC in the Eastern Pacific, it marks only the 3rd time since 1950 that the Eastern Pacific has had 4 tropical systems before June 15th.

The only other 2 years are 1974 and 2018.
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Those are two years that definitely catch my attention - 1974 had something like five tropical cyclones active simultaneously at one point during the season, while 2018 was extremely active with three C5 hurricanes (Lane, Walaka, Willa) as well as seven C4 hurricanes (Aletta, Bud, Hector, Norman, Olivia, Rosa, Sergio), it wouldn't surprise me if Hector reached C5 intensity briefly as well. Just an absolutely insane year.

I don't think this EPAC season is going to be nearly as active as something like 2018, but it's interesting to see nonetheless.
 
Why tf did I dream of a category 4 exploding off the coast of mexico after logging onto the nhc front page a couple days back
well before the first HAFSB models were out
tf
 
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Given the recent history of this general area around Mexico’s coast (Patricia 2015, Otis 2023, John 2024, etc) and the fact that this storm is in a favorable environment and will be until landfall, I’d be shocked if Erick doesn’t reach major hurricane status. It seems like this small area off the west coast of Mexico is really prone to explosive intensification in TCs.
 
slenker said:
Given the recent history of this general area around Mexico’s coast (Patricia 2015, Otis 2023, John 2024, etc) and the fact that this storm is in a favorable environment and will be until landfall, I’d be shocked if Erick doesn’t reach major hurricane status. It seems like this small area off the west coast of Mexico is really prone to explosive intensification in TCs.
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IdaliaHelene said:
No wonder a few days ago before the models blew him up I had a dream of logging onto the NHC page to see a surprise C4 off the western Mexican coast jfl
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also the numerology suggests names to watch out for: erick, Henriette, Juliette, octave
 
Dalila was the second earliest fourth Named Storm on record after a unnamed hurricane in 1956 (storms weren’t named in 1956, so it was Hurricane Four, which formed on June 12th that year)

Erick is the earliest fifth named storm on record in the Eastern Pacific, surpassing Hurricane Enrique of 2021 (which formed on June 25th).
Think about that.

Enrique formed on June 25th, 2021
Erick this year formed June 17th.
 
Atlantic said:
Dalila was the second earliest fourth Named Storm on record after a unnamed hurricane in 1956 (storms weren’t named in 1956, so it was Hurricane Four, which formed on June 12th that year)

Erick is the earliest fifth named storm on record in the Eastern Pacific, surpassing Hurricane Enrique of 2021 (which formed on June 25th).
Think about that.

Enrique formed on June 25th, 2021
Erick this year formed June 17th.
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Here is the earliest and second earliest of each storm since records began:
IMG_9577.jpeg
 
Atlantic said:
I can’t think of any year of the top of my head in the Eastern Pacific where a major hurricane made landfall in Mexico in June.
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There hasn't been one to hit Mexico at major hurricane intensity going back to 1950. The strongest June landfall on the Mexican coast was Hurricane Carlotta (2012) at 110mph.
 
JPWX said:
There hasn't been one to hit Mexico at major hurricane intensity going back to 1950. The strongest June landfall on the Mexican coast was Hurricane Carlotta (2012) at 110mph.
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So it is possible that Erick could challenge that in the coming days… interesting indeed.
 
This is the first time since 1990 where the Eastern Pacific has used the B,C,D, and E named storms all in June.
This is also the first time since 2018 that the Eastern Pacific has had 2 hurricanes before the 20th in the month of June.
 
JPWX said:
This is the first time since 1990 where the Eastern Pacific has used the B,C,D, and E named storms all in June.
This is also the first time since 2018 that the Eastern Pacific has had 2 hurricanes before the 20th in the month of June.
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slenker said:
Erick is now explicitly forecast to intensify into a major hurricane by landfall. It's already a Category 1, with 1-min winds of 85 MPH and a pressure of 984 mb. It's rapidly intensifying right now.
View attachment 44211
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no wonder I had a dream about a category 4 off the coast of mexico last week
excrement's verifying irl
literally had an REM dream of logging onto the NHC page to see a category 4 hurricane in western mexico when dalila was flopping about
here we fucking are bro
 
Erick's satellite presentation has improved quite a bit since this morning. He's got an eye now, and a solid one at that. Next update should bring this storm up to C2 intensity, it's definitely getting that RI "look."

Here's an image I snagged off the most recent visible radar loop. It's definitely stronger than 984 mb, 85 mph C1 right now:
Screenshot 2025-06-18 at 12.47.07 PM.png
 
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