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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

OKAY Eastern Pacific! We get it! A new AoI has been marked with 0/20 chances as of now;
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Atlantic said:
Makes me wonder, could this season be very active…
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The recipe for very active to hyperactive seasons are this;

  • Cooler subtropics and warmer tropics
  • Low wind shear
  • Cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña
  • Warm waters
  • Little to no wavebreaking
  • The “horseshoe” of Sea Surface Temperature anomalies being above average
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Also Andy hazelton is coping HARD ON TWITTER ABOUT NNNME RN
 
Invest 92E doesn’t yet have a well-defined circulation, but the NHC expects it to get one here soon and is expecting a tropical depression or tropical storm to form later tonight. 90/90 on this one from the NHC right now.

Invest 91E is looking better than yesterday, but it seems to have a bit more of a ways to go before it could form. 70/80 on this one from the NHC right now.

The third Eastern Pacific AOI is up to 0/30.
 
While all of the other NHEM basins are silent (NIO and WPAC unusually so), the EPAC has just been popping off storms.

To remind you that the EPAC hadn’t produced a single storm to this date last year and the year prior. 2024 went until July 4 and 2023 went until June 28.
 
If the Western Pacific doesn’t produce a TC within the next 24 hours, it will go into the record books for the top three latest starting seasons on record.

Think about that: The Western Pacific and the month of June. They don’t usually go together.
 
NHEM stats as of today, June 8th, 2025

NATL 0/0/0
EPAC 3/0/0
CPAC 0/0/0
WPAC 0/0/0
NIO 0/0/0
 
The North Indian Ocean has not developed a TC yet this season according to the JTWC. It seems likely we will not see a TC during the pre-monsoon timeframe of March-June, though we still have a bunch of June to get though. The last time the NIO didn’t develop a TC between March and June was 2012, which was the least active season on record for the basin.

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The first storm here to be named and recognized by the IMD (India Meteorological Department) and by the JTWC was Cyclonic Storm Murjan (JTWC designation 01A), by the JTWC it was the latest first TS/CS on record.
 
By UTC time it is now June 8th. The Western Pacific has now tied the third latest start on record.
 
Barbara became the Eastern Pacific’s first hurricane of the season very early this morning. Cosme could follow suit tonight.

Barbara is currently 65 kts (75 mph)
Cosme is 60 kts (70 mph)
 
The Eastern Pacific area of interest behind Barbara and Cosme is now up to 0/70, meaning a 70% high chance of formation in the next seven days. This is the fourth high chance area of interest in a row for the Eastern Pacific now.

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Atlantic said:
The Eastern Pacific area of interest behind Barbara and Cosme is now up to 0/70, meaning a 70% high chance of formation in the next seven days. This is the fourth high chance area of interest in a row for the Eastern Pacific now.
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Seems a little odd that the East Pacific is popping off this crazy at the beginning of the season, isn’t it still La Niña?
 
slenker said:
Seems a little odd that the East Pacific is popping off this crazy at the beginning of the season, isn’t it still La Niña?
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It is ENSO neutral right now, which mostly favored to last through the peak of hurricane season with a possibility of dipping back into a La Niña during the winter of 2025-26.

Technically the 2024 Niña wasn’t actually a La Niña because it didn’t qualify for the five overlapping months of being at least -0.5C or lower. Technically 2024 was a cool neutral.
 
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