2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

[Atlantic]

The Western Pacific still hasn't produced its first TC yet, and we are now at 141 days without the first TC. @JPWX I am making a chart of the latest starting season to the earliest starting season since 1983 shown down below:

1998 - 187 days (July 6th)
1983 - 166 days (June 16th)
1984 - 158 days (June 7th)
2016 - 147 days (May 27th)
2024 - 144 days (May 24th)
2025 - 141 days (present)
2020 - 129 days (May 8th)
2000 - 123 days (May 2nd)
2009 - 120 days (April 29th)
2011 - 91 days (April 2nd)
2007 - 89 days (March 31st)
2022 - 88 days (March 30th)
1991 - 62 days (March 4th)
2006 - 60 days (March 1st)
1993 - 58 days (February 27th)
2001 - 47 days (February 16th)
2012 and 2021 - 45 days (February 14th)
2004 - 41 days (February 10th)
1996 - 31 days (January 31st)
1986 - 29 days (January 29th)
2010 - 18 days (January 18th)
1989 and 2014 - 15 days (January 15th)
2005 - 13 days (January 13th)
2008 and 2015 - 12 days (January 12th)
1997 - 11 days (January 11th)
1990 and 2002 - 8 days (January 8th)
2017 - 7 days (January 7th)
1987 - 6 days (January 6th)
1988 - 5 days (January 5th)
1985, 1995 and 2019 - 4 days (January 4th)
1992 and 1999 - 3 days (January 3rd)
1994, 2013 and 2018 - 1 day (January 1st)

 

[Atlantic]

The Western Pacific still hasn't produced its first TC yet, and we are now at 141 days without the first TC. @JPWX I am making a chart of the latest starting season to the earliest starting season since 1983 shown down below:

1998 - 187 days (July 6th)
1983 - 166 days (June 16th)
1984 - 158 days (June 7th)
2016 - 147 days (May 27th)
2024 - 144 days (May 24th)
2025 - 141 days (present)
2020 - 129 days (May 8th)
2000 - 123 days (May 2nd)
2009 - 120 days (April 29th)
2011 - 91 days (April 2nd)
2007 - 89 days (March 31st)
2022 - 88 days (March 30th)
1991 - 62 days (March 4th)
2006 - 60 days (March 1st)
1993 - 58 days (February 27th)
2001 - 47 days (February 16th)
2012 and 2021 - 45 days (February 14th)
2004 - 41 days (February 10th)
1996 - 31 days (January 31st)
1986 - 29 days (January 29th)
2010 - 18 days (January 18th)
1989 and 2014 - 15 days (January 15th)
2005 - 13 days (January 13th)
2008 and 2015 - 12 days (January 12th)
1997 - 11 days (January 11th)
1990 and 2002 - 8 days (January 8th)
2017 - 7 days (January 7th)
1987 - 6 days (January 6th)
1988 - 5 days (January 5th)
1985, 1995 and 2019 - 4 days (January 4th)
1992 and 1999 - 3 days (January 3rd)
1994, 2013 and 2018 - 1 day (January 1st)

And the chart I made on it beforehand:

By JTWC data, the 1998 Pacific Typhoon Season is the latest starting season on record, with first TC not forming until a whooping JULY 8TH!

 

[Atlantic]

And the chart I made on it beforehand:
View attachment 42992
By JTWC data, the 1998 Pacific Typhoon Season is the latest starting season on record, with first TC not forming until a whooping JULY 8TH!

As of today, the 2025 season is in 6th place, and as we are likely to pass last year's milestone (May 24th), we will likely move up to at least 4th or 5th place before all is said and done.

 

[Atlantic]

The EPAC area of interest is now orange! It is at 40% in the seven day timeframe and the NHC notes "a tropical depression could form around the middle of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph."

 

[Kds86z]

The EPAC area of interest is now orange! It is at 40% in the seven day timeframe and the NHC notes "a tropical depression could form around the middle of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph."
View attachment 42994

Unusual @Atlantic?

 

[Atlantic]

Unusual @Atlantic?

If you take in the fact that we haven't had a storm in May in the Eastern Pacific since 2022. 2023 had Adrian form on June 28th (The latest first TD, second latest first TS; until the following year stole both records) and Aletta last year formed on July 4th (Both the latest first TD and TS, taking the record on latest first TD from Adrian 2023 and the latest first TS from Agatha 2016)

 

[Atlantic]

Hurricane Agatha in 2022 formed on May 28th I believe. So it seems we may (excuse the may pun) return to producing TCs in May in the EPAC again. At the same time the EPAC was starting late in 2023 and 2024, we all know what happened in the Atlantic...

 

[Kds86z]

If you take in the fact that we haven't had a storm in May in the Eastern Pacific since 2022. 2023 had Adrian form on June 28th (The latest first TD, second latest first TS; until the following year stole both records) and Aletta last year formed on July 4th (Both the latest first TD and TS, taking the record on latest first TD from Adrian 2023 and the latest first TS from Agatha 2016)

Gotcha thanks for that.

 

[Atlantic]

I couldn't get TropicalTidbits to load, so I used CyclonicWx for the GFS runs this morning. Anyway, we love the GFS:

 

[Atlantic]

The NHC has upped the Eastern Pacific area of interest to 50% now. It won't be long now before the procursor system appears.

 

[JPWX]

I've started working on the Eastern Pacific MJO Spreadsheet. Looking back at 1975 to current day (same as I did with the Atlantic) and putting in when the storm formed, peaked at, and made landfall (if storm did) in the MJO Phases. I plan on doing the same with the Western Pacific

 

[Atlantic]

We are now at 60% with the Eastern Pacific area of interest. If it go 70, that will be a 7-day high chance before the procursor has even appeared.

 

[Atlantic]

A second tropical wave has emerged off of Africa this morning. After the first one that is still active in the central tropical atlantic and the one in the Eastern Pacific, this is the third tropical wave of the year.

From the tropical weather discussion:

"A tropical wave has come off the coast of Africa early this
morning. The wave extends from 00N to 13N with axis near 17W,
moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to
14N between 12W and 20W. "

-

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri May 23 2025

 

[Atlantic]

My own general self-analysis of the general weather conditions across the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific as of 12Z (7:00 AM EST)

 

[Atlantic]

My own general self-analysis of the general weather conditions across the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific as of 12Z (7:00 AM EST)

View attachment 43131

The yellow line going north to south are the three Tropical Waves. The orange line in between are the Intertropical Convergence Zones and\or the monsoonal troughs of both basins. The "H" is high pressure, the "L" is low pressure. The yellow lines are fronts.The Eastern Pacific AOI I have been talking about shows up here with a 0% chance of formation in 48 hours or 2 days/ and 60% chance of formation in 7 days according to the NHC's 4 AM PST Tropical Weather Outlook for the Eastern Pacific basin.

 

[Atlantic]

The Eastern Pacific area of interest is up to 70% and is now a cherry or high chance in the 7-day range. As it stands as of 11 AM PST in the Eastern Pacific it is now at 0%/70%

 

[Atlantic]

LOL! NOAA stopped issuing Dvorak bulletins on 93A at 11Z today, but 93A has the last laugh now being back over water and looking better than ever:

My reaction to this:

 

[Atlantic]

Also this from when I still had Discord in February 2024….


Little did we know… we would get a June MDR major just 4 months later…

 

[Atlantic]

Well the HWRF run on 93A jumps to something completely different…


It decides to jump on the Bay of Bengal AOI right as it is making a strong landfall in eastern India.

 

[Atlantic]

Well the HWRF run on 93A jumps to something completely different…


It decides to jump on the Bay of Bengal AOI right as it is making a strong landfall in eastern India.

The HWRF-Parent also latch’s onto the same BoB AOI:

(File too large apparently)