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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

I live near Galveston TX, what are the odd’s that new wave that could become Melissa makes it over towards Texas?
Are models suggesting it could go into the northwestern gulf of Mexico?

If there's any chance I may just prepare for a potential hurricane hunt for the heck of it.
 
Texas is not at play this time of year due to frontal systems coming in that blocks the storms from getting that far west. It's more SE Louisiana and eastward that's favored.
 
Looking at model consensus...I can say there's a good (50% or higher) chance that in a few months we'll be discussing what the new name between Lorenzo and Nestor will be in 2031.
Yeah, landfall *somewhere* is practically unavoidable given that this will almost certainly form in the Caribbean. Not sure on intensity, but it is still quite warm down there
 
Looks like the GFS fucking loops it over Hispaniola. If that happens, not only is Melissa G-O-N-E, but it has a decent chance of being the worst List 5 cyclone ever in terms of death toll. Even worse, the other models appear to be trending towards the GFS position.
 
JFL at this NPC tier excrement
Humberto > imelda
Any fucking time
Humberto will MOG imelda to the slums of Kabul and back
I love how this post aged like both wine and milk: Humberto was FAR stronger than Imelda, but Imelda somehow managed to completely overshadow Humberto and ended up taking EVERYTHING from him - his recon, his second peak, his TS watch, even his lifeforce in the end after Imelda sacrificed him to the front...so yeah, I think Imelda won that one.
 
Looks like the GFS fucking loops it over Hispaniola. If that happens, not only is Melissa G-O-N-E, but it has a decent chance of being the worst List 5 cyclone ever in terms of death toll. Even worse, the other models appear to be trending towards the GFS position.
I sure hope we don’t see a repeat of Hurricane Mitch type death tolls.
 
Looks like the GFS fucking loops it over Hispaniola. If that happens, not only is Melissa G-O-N-E, but it has a decent chance of being the worst List 5 cyclone ever in terms of death toll. Even worse, the other models appear to be trending towards the GFS position.
Yeah I'd say its a little unrealistic but still that model solution is insane. Nonstop downpours over the entire island from like h60 to h300 on that run
 
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