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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

JPWX said:
Interesting linkage I found after I asked myself the question: "Do hurricane seasons with at least one or multiple category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic lead to more snow across North MS during the following winters?"

1924 thru 2024: 41 category 5 hurricanes. Out of those 41, only one winter did NOT have snow across North MS and that was during the winter of 1953/54.
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What about Virginia?

Does Virginia get more snow at all?

Interesting observation my friend
 
Lake Martin EF4 said:
C5 #3? (Doubt it)

Also damn this lady really wants to be Michelle 2: Electric Boogaloo huh?
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If it was C5 #3, then it would be the first time since 2005 that we would have had more than two C5s
 
Atlantic said:
What about Virginia?

Does Virginia get more snow at all?

Interesting observation my friend
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Well, I only did it for North MS because I've got the temperature data, etc. all in a spreadsheet. What I did is go to my local weather service climate page and took like both Tupelo/Aberdeen climate data then looked back at the category 5 years. I'm not sure what your local NWS office is, but it might be something you may want to look at. I was honestly surprised to find that correlation. I'm glad I did though because it's something not many would think about looking into.
 
JPWX said:
Well, I only did it for North MS because I've got the temperature data, etc. all in a spreadsheet. What I did is go to my local weather service climate page and took like both Tupelo/Aberdeen climate data then looked back at the category 5 years. I'm not sure what your local NWS office is, but it might be something you may want to look at. I was honestly surprised to find that correlation. I'm glad I did though because it's something not many would think about looking into.
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I think mine is NWS Blacksburg, but yeah, that it is pretty interesting to find that connection
 
I wouldn't totally write off a third run at category 5 this season and it would make perfect sense in the Caribbean. Why? Well, let's see how many storms have formed in the Caribbean..... None. The Caribbean Waters have been unused and are still at peak condition. In 2018, you had only one storm form in the Caribbean and that was Michael.
 
JPWX said:
I wouldn't totally write off a third run at category 5 this season and it would make perfect sense in the Caribbean. Why? Well, let's see how many storms have formed in the Caribbean..... None. The Caribbean Waters have been unused and are still at peak condition. In 2018, you had only one storm form in the Caribbean and that was Michael.
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Well that ominous in of itself…

Next name is Melissa should anything form down there.
 
Yeah, this totally doesn’t give me a bad feeling at all when seeing that like 99.9% of the Caribbean Sea has 30C waters or warmer.

My worry is that if the wind shear is low, that the 0/20 wave that was finally marked by the NHC earlier this afternoon could really blow up in the Caribbean because of those literally pristine, untapped bathtub waters and OHC.

IMG_9790.jpeg
To me, the Caribbean is a powder keg just waiting to blow its top.
 
Really, really not liking the look of this right now. Like what @JPWX and @Atlantic said above, you've got an absolutely pristine and untapped environment down there. Just look at all the hurricane tracks thus far this season, it's been nothing but Cape Verde OTS heaven:
2025_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary.png
Genuinely nothing has formed in the Caribbean. I wonder how insane the heat content is right now.
 
82.4 F (28 C) to 88 F (31 C)
 
gotcha thank you jpwx also i supposedly saw somewhere that apparently the gulf is cooling like people said that the gulf waters felt cooler i dont recall where it was that was posted so not sure if i should take it as true or not im wondering that since the gulf waters are getting warmer and warmer if they happen to might cool off faster somehow was thinking about that the other day
 
KakashiHatake2000 said:
gotcha thank you jpwx also i supposedly saw somewhere that apparently the gulf is cooling like people said that the gulf waters felt cooler i dont recall where it was that was posted so not sure if i should take it as true or not im wondering that since the gulf waters are getting warmer and warmer if they happen to might cool off faster somehow was thinking about that the other day
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The waters just offshore of the Gulf coast and along the northern Gulf have certainly "cooled" due to frontal systems moving through. I put cool in quotes because the Gulf is still favorable to support a tropical storm and/or hurricane.
 
slenker said:
Really, really not liking the look of this right now. Like what @JPWX and @Atlantic said above, you've got an absolutely pristine and untapped environment down there. Just look at all the hurricane tracks thus far this season, it's been nothing but Cape Verde OTS heaven:
View attachment 47452
Genuinely nothing has formed in the Caribbean. I wonder how insane the heat content is right now.
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Probably ominously high right now. If we could see a third C5 of the season, the Caribbean is the perfect place to look.

And that’s not a good thing or sign. If the upper-level winds are favorable, be very wary and watchful. I wouldn’t rule out another Erin-style system if conditions are right. Not saying they will be, because lots of puzzle pieces would have to come together for it to happen. I have my eye brows raised at this is all.

I feel like this could be the most dangerous setup we’ve seen all season.
 
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