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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Tropics always manage to wake up on us.
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde
Islands show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more favorable for development by tomorrow,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Wednesday or
Thursday while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. East of the Leeward Islands:
A tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the Leeward Islands
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for some development over the
next few days as the wave moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the latter part of this
week, the system is expected to slow down and turn northwestward,
and a tropical depression could form late this week when the system
is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the Bahamas.
Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are
expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and
Tuesday and near Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Pasch
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Jokingly, Hurricane Gabrielle set new record for most consecutive hours at 50mph winds with no convection at center.
 
Good to see this place waking up. Tropical threats to the U.S., not so much.
 
First Hurricane Warning for the Azores since October 2nd, 2019 with Hurricane Lorenzo
 
Blountwolf said:
94L doesn't look far behind. No shortage of convection, at least - not sure how much spin it's got.

View attachment 46654
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i'm not terribly well-versed in this sort of thing so you'll have to forgive me if i put my foot in my mouth and only manage shove it deeper instead of back out but that's really neat and now i'm curious about the possibility of getting to observe the fujiwhara(sp?) effect.

i don't want to say "excited" because the last time a hurricane hit us was fiona back in 2022 and we're still fishing hunks of PEI out of the ocean but it'd still be neat.
 
dessertdoom said:
i'm not terribly well-versed in this sort of thing so you'll have to forgive me if i put my foot in my mouth and only manage shove it deeper instead of back out but that's really neat and now i'm curious about the possibility of getting to observe the fujiwhara(sp?) effect.

i don't want to say "excited" because the last time a hurricane hit us was fiona back in 2022 and we're still fishing hunks of PEI out of the ocean but it'd still be neat.
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Welcome to the forum @dessertdoom . I don’t about hurricanes much but welcome.
 
dessertdoom said:
i'm not terribly well-versed in this sort of thing so you'll have to forgive me if i put my foot in my mouth and only manage shove it deeper instead of back out but that's really neat and now i'm curious about the possibility of getting to observe the fujiwhara(sp?) effect.

i don't want to say "excited" because the last time a hurricane hit us was fiona back in 2022 and we're still fishing hunks of PEI out of the ocean but it'd still be neat.
Click to expand...
I’m a knowledgeable person in TCs, but if you need to know more technical stuff, @JPWX is the person to ask.

I can tell you generally where they track and the average season numbers in the basin, and more if you want.
 
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